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  #191  
Old 18-04-2018, 02:51 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Brent: East is a delicate matter

Donald Trump's statement that "the mission is carried out" after the military strikes against Syria by the United States and its allies allowed the "bears" of Brent and WTI to go on a counterattack. The conflict around Damascus did not turn into a mass brawl and the risks of interruptions in supplies from the Middle East declined, which led to the removal of oil futures from the region of 3.5-year highs. However, fears about the resumption of economic sanctions against Iran, political instability in Venezuela, OPEC's readiness to expand its commitments beyond 2018, and a strong global demand set the fans of black gold in a major way. In addition, who will give his head to be cut-off to guarantee that the US president will not throw out another fortune?

Theoretically reducing the degree of geopolitical risks opens the way for correction. "Bears" are waiting for their hour, guided by the growth of American production by about a quarter from mid-2016 to 10.53 million bpd and the increase in drilling rigs by 73 units from the beginning of the year. The dynamics of indicators indicates that US companies are actively developing production and simultaneously hedging price risks through the sale of futures contracts. The problem is that the decline in stocks indicates the outpacing dynamics of domestic demand. According to the forecasts of experts in Bloomberg, by the end of the week of April 13, oil reserves in the USA will have decreased by 600 thousand barrels and for the first time in the last few years, will have fallen below their five-year average.

Dynamics of US stocks



Thus, the large-scale fiscal stimulus favorably affects domestic demand and allows to cover the negative from the increase in production. The increased interest in black gold in other countries, coupled with the implementation of the Vienna agreements of OPEC, lays a solid foundation under the upward trend for Brent and WTI. Thus, the volume of oil refining in China in March set a new record of 12.13 million bpd. The previous one was recorded in November (12.03 million). The acceleration of the indicator compared with the average for the first two months of the year (11.56 million) and March 2017 (11.19 million) speaks of the growing appetite of the Celestial Empire. The volume of its domestic extraction of black gold is 3.76 million bpd. The indicator is wandering near the lowest mark since June 2011, and its dynamics convince that Beijing is actively buying oil abroad.

The situation can be changed only by the large-scale trade war between the US and China. This is the opinion of the International Energy Agency. Nevertheless, it does not change its forecast for the increase in global demand for 2018 at 1.5 million bpd. This shows that the IEA does not believe in military action. In our opinion, if the world economy headed by the US is beginning to restore the growth rates taken in 2017. The increased interest in oil will allow the "bulls" of Brent to continue the northern trend.

Technically, the April update of the maximum will increase the risks of implementation of the Targets by 161.8% and 200% in the AB = CD patterns. They are located near the marks of $ 75-76.5 per barrel.


Brent, daily chart

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  #192  
Old 26-04-2018, 05:47 PM
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Mario Draghi can determine the direction of the euro

All attention for today will be focused on the next meeting of the European Central Bank and the press conference of its President Mario Draghi. Despite the fact that this meeting is an interim, recent statements by the head of the ECB on the possibility of postponing the deadline for the asset buyback program forced many investors and traders to take a more attentive view of today's meeting.

The new economic forecasts will most likely not be presented at the meeting but changes in the rhetoric of Mario Draghi can seriously affect the rate of the European currency.

A number of economists believe that the president of the ECB will not make new statements that will support the euro after a significant decline has been observed this week. The whole question is how Mario Draghi perceived the recent weak economic data of the eurozone. It is specifically about the question of slowing the growth of inflation and GDP in the first quarter of this year.

If the rhetoric of the ECB president becomes softer, the pressure on the European currency will increase significantly, which will lead to its further reduction to the area of support levels of 1.2120 and 1.2080. The main goal of the sellers will be the lows of January this year in the areas of 1.1980 and 1.1940.

If the rhetoric of Mario Draghi does not change, then some speculative support for the euro will lead to a return to the resistance area of 1.2220 and 1.2250. The rush of this levels will open the opportunity to strengthen risk assets in the areas of 1.2270 and 1.2290. The quotes of oil remained unchanged after yesterday's report from the US Department of Energy on the growth of reserves for the reporting period in the US.

According to the data, commercial oil reserves for the week from April 14 to 20 increased by 2.2 million barrels to 429.7 million barrels, while economists had expected a reduction in reserves of 1.7 million barrels.



Gasoline stocks also increased by 840,000 barrels to 236 million barrels, while analysts expected a fall by 600,000 barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 2.6 million barrels to 122.7 million barrels. Economists had expected a decline in stocks of only 900,000 barrels. The loading of oil refining capacities decreased to 90.8%.

As for the technical picture of oil, as already noted, much will depend on the breakthrough of the level of 70 USD per barrel on the WTI brand. If it takes place, we can expect a larger upward trend with the update of the highs to around 73 and 77 USD per barrel.

If you do not get to the $ 70 range in the near future, a downward correction may lead to a decrease to support area of 62.50 and 58 USD per barrel.
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  #193  
Old 27-04-2018, 09:15 PM
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Oil

The price of oil is weaker, responding to EIA and API data on reserves. Published on Thursday, the EIA report showed an increase in crude oil reserves of 2.2 million barrels, while a decrease of 2.04 million is expected. However, quotations remained near the highs reached on the eve. The concept of "expensive oil" fits perfectly into the plan for reforming the American economy, since it allows to increase the loading of the industrial sector, and everything goes to the fact that the trend will continue. There is a risk of a correction to $ 70 per barrel in the coming days, but the overall trend remains growing.
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  #194  
Old 04-05-2018, 06:14 PM
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Crude Oil Flat As Rig Count Rises



Crude oil futures inched lower Friday amid signs the U.S. shale boom will continue unabated. The number of land rigs drilling for oil in the United States is 825, up five from a week ago, according to Baker Hughes.

WTI light sweet crude oil was 9 cents lower at $68.10 a barrel. Commodities were dented this week as the U.S. dollar enjoyed its best week in years. However, expectations that OPEC will extend its supply quota plan with Russia gave oil a bit of a lift.

The cartel will meet with Kremlin officials on June 23, a day after the OPEC regular meeting, according to reports. Economic growth in the U.S. continued to slow in the first quarter of 2018, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday, although the pace of growth during the quarter still exceeded economist estimates.

GDP climbed by 2.3 percent in the first quarter compared to the 2.9 percent jump in the fourth quarter. Economists had expected GDP to increase by about 2.0 percent.

The University of Michigan released a report on Friday showing consumer sentiment in the U.S. deteriorated by less than initially estimated in the month of April. The report said the consumer sentiment index for April was upwardly revised to 98.8 from the preliminary reading of 97.8.
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  #195  
Old 14-05-2018, 05:28 PM
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Oil

Oil prices stabilized by Friday evening, having played a negative, connected with the withdrawal of the US from the deal on Iran. While the position of OPEC + is unclear, which can be corrected taking into account new circumstances, however, in any case it is not necessary to expect a decline in oil prices, oil will continue to grow, the target is 81.50 in the near future.
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  #196  
Old 17-05-2018, 09:30 PM
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Global macro overview for 17/05/2018

The price of the oil barrel in New York approaches 72 USD. This means that the crude oil in this quarter recorded a two-digit increase and its prices since the end of December 2017 increased by almost 20%. The crude oil price is, in effect, the highest in more than three years.

According to the data of the US Department of Energy, supplies of gas in the week (5-11 May) fell (contrary to expectations built on the basis of the API Report) by 1.4 million barrels. This is a result close to the average change in inventories in this period of the year recorded in the last five years. It is worth noting, however, that in his aftermath stocks are 10 million barrels lower than their five-year average. At the same time, it should be remembered that for a long period of oversupply of oil, the average has dropped significantly in recent years. The data, however, confirm the rapid balancing of the gas market, as the current availability of raw material is almost 90 million barrels lower than last year.

The main driving force behind the tightening of the stock inventories in the US is the new oil export records. Last week its volume reached a record 2.57 million barrels. For comparison: its annual change is as much as 136% (almost 1.5 million barrels). The widest brent spread - WTI, which is over USD 7, is the factor that drives the demand for US oil. At the same time, mining in the United States set a new historical record close to 10.75 million barrels/per day. We are also dealing here with gigantic increases because production is a dozen or so percent higher than last year and there is no reason to expect that mining activity will stop growing. This will eventually end up in higher than current oil prices, that might even reach $100.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made another higher high at the level of 72.28, but the momentum does not follow the price and the bearish divergence is clear and visible. This technical situation might lead to a temporary pull-back towards the technical support at the level of 70.24 and even 69.65. The extremely overbought market conditions support the bearish bias.


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  #197  
Old 01-08-2018, 02:19 PM
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Brent plays cat and mouse

Due to Saudi Arabia's export problems in the Red Sea and information about the previous later than anticipated recovery times in the North Sea, oil was able to lick some of the wounds received in July. Brent and WTI close the month in the red zone amid a strong dollar, growing risks of slowing global demand and increasing production of OPEC. News from Saudi Arabia and the North Sea is seen as short-term "bullish" factors, although not everyone agrees.

According to Goldman Sachs, the cartel will be able to increase production by 1 million b / s, but the efforts of Riyadh and Moscow will not be enough to compensate for the loss of Iranian production of black gold as a result of imposing new sanctions on Tehran from Washington. As for the American production, it will grow, but at a slower pace than currently expected due to problems in the Perm basin. The market was disappointed because of the inability of the "bears" to develop a correction that will lead to the "bullish" trend recovery. Goldman Sachs believes that Brent will test the mark of $ 80 per barrel before the end of this year.

The bank looks like a black sheep. A poll of experts from Reuters showed that OPEC increased production to 32.64 million b / s (+70 thousand b / s), and the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes increased to 861. At the same time, the decline in China's business activity indicates an economic slowdown of the country- the largest the consumer of black gold.

The boost in production and the reduction in demand increase the risks of surplus, which is a "bearish" factor for Brent and WTI. Infinitely, the problems of supply disruptions in the Red and North Seas cannot continue, and sellers of both varieties will resume their attacks as soon as the situation there begins to change for the better.

Speculators do not particularly believe in oil, while fixing profits on long positions does not yet cause the development of a serious corrective movement for Brent and WTI.

The dynamics of oil prices and speculative positions.



Donald Trump is capable of rocking the boat, who unexpectedly announced his readiness to meet with the head of Iran Rouhani. Prior to this, the US president was twitching with Tehran on his Twitter account. Given the desire of the owner of the White House to reduce gasoline prices, which requires the correction of Brent and WTI. It can be assumed that he will depart from his intentions to reduce Iran's exports to zero in exchange for Rouhani's refusal to develop nuclear program. If this "bullish" driver is eliminated, then the chances of continuing the southern campaign of both varieties of black gold will increase.

Technically, the inability of the "bears" to keep Brent quotes below the lower limit of the upward trading channel confirms their weakness. To develop a correction, the target is in the direction of 88.6% on the "Bat pattern", while sellers need to break the support at $ 71.9 per barrel and update the July low.

Brent daily chart


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