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  #11  
Old 11-08-2016, 11:08 AM
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Sterling still under pressure

The Sterling/Dollar lurched higher during trading on Wednesday and this has nothing to do with an improved sentiment towards the Sterling but Dollar weakness. Sentiment towards the Sterling remains firmly bearish with further declines expected as the growing expectations of the BoE cutting UK rates to near zero encourages sellers to attack. From a domestic standpoint, UK manufacturing has repeatedly displayed signs of weakness while the recent regional PMI’s painted a discouraging picture. Uncertainty is still a recurrent theme which continues to haunt investor attraction towards the Sterling consequently obstructing upside gains. Sterling/Dollar remains bearish and the divergence in monetary policy between the BoE and Fed could entice bears to send prices towards 1.2800.

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  #12  
Old 11-08-2016, 11:09 AM
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WTI Crude trades towards $42

WTI Crude was pressured this week as U.S government forecasters raised their outlook for production which added to the concerns over the excessive oversupply of oil in the global markets. The selling pressure intensified on Wednesday following news that Saudi Arabia pumped production to record highs of 10.67 million barrels a day in July to meet the summer usage. Although there have been talks by some OPEC members over a potential freeze on output, this may do little to quell the bear rally with further declines expected as persistent oversupply concerns haunt investor attraction. WTI is fundamentally bearish with the toxic combination of oversupply fears and faltering demand could encourage sellers to send prices towards $40.
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  #13  
Old 11-08-2016, 11:11 AM
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Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold displayed an incredible rebound during trading on Wednesday with the metal lurching back above $1350 as Dollar weakness encouraged bullish investors to install a heavy round of buying. This yellow metal is becoming increasingly sensitive to US interest rate rise expectations and explosive movements could become commonplace as the Fed policy meetings loom. Although optimism has slightly deteriorated over the Fed taking action anytime soon following the weak U.S productivity data, there is still a 40% likelihood that action may be taken in December potentially capping upside gains. Gold remains engaged in a fierce tug of war against risk aversion and US rate hike expectations with risk aversion currently dominating. Bulls may be commended on their ability to propel Gold to such levels and a daily close back above $1365 could encourage buyers to propel prices higher.

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  #14  
Old 12-08-2016, 10:53 AM
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Search for yield continues to support high yielding currencies



Meeting expectations is no longer enough to influence a currency direction. This was the response of currency traders to Reserve Bank of New Zealand which is struggling to meet its inflation rate target band of 1 to 3%. The Kiwi rallied by more than 1% to trade at one-year high despite the central bank cutting its official cash rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 2%, indicating further policy easing in the near future.

Traditional monetary policy tools are clearly no longer working anymore and governor Graeme Wheeler was not surprised by the financial markets’ reaction. When we see that stimulus abroad has sent 10-year government bond yields in Japan and Germany into negative territory, and that in UK gilts continue to post record lows, and the same applying to the periphery of Europe, this justifies financial markets behavior where investors are struggling to find yields. Expectations of Fed keeping rates on hold for 2016 is another reason to blame as markets lowered their forecast for a rate hike in 2016 to less than 40% with chances for September now standing at 9%.

In other currency news, People’s Bank of China has set the midpoint for Yuan 0.4% higher against the U.S. dollar to mark the anniversary of the one-year devaluation which sent equity markets tumbling across the globe. Since then the Chinese currency depreciated by 6.5% against the U.S. dollar, but has shown some signs of stabilisation most recently. I still believe that policy makers will continue to push the currency lower to support the weakening economy, but will not repeat the same mistake they did one year ago.

Asian equity markets were mostly in red following the drop in Wall Street on Wednesday. It seems markets are taking its cue from crude prices which fell 2.5% yesterday after data from EIA showed crude inventories rose by 1.06-million-barrel against expectations of a 1-million-barrel drop. OPEC’s monthly report showed that Saudi Arabia’s oil production hita record high last month didn’t help either as renewed fears of supply glut is likely to persist into 2017. But as long as oil holds above $40 the impact on equities should be insignificant.


By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA)
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  #15  
Old 12-08-2016, 11:01 AM
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Depressed oil quells stock market rally




Global stocks were searching for direction on Thursday following the sharp decline in oil prices that weighed on global sentiment consequently souring investor risk appetite. Asian shares concluded depressed mimicking recent losses from Wall Street as a combination of risk aversion and Yen’s resurgence encouraged bears to attack. In Europe, equities were mostly down after the sell-off in energy companies and could be exposed to further losses from Asia’s bearish domino. Wall Street swiftly relinquished short term gains on Wednesday amid faltering oil prices with American stocks potentially trading lower on Thursday as expectations fluctuate over the Fed raising US rates in 2016.

The stock market rally may be displaying its true colours with it becoming increasingly clear that sentiment remains a driver rather than fundamentals. Inflated expectations over central banks intervening have propped stocks higher while talks of easing Brexit uncertainties continue to attract investors to riskier assets. Although global stocks have risen to impressive levels, the worrying fundamentals of slowing global growth and overall uncertainty does question the sustainability of such a rally. It should be kept in mind that risk aversion remains rife while depressed oil prices weigh heavily on sentiment. Bears are on the prowl and the pending catalyst which could quell this rally should leave investors diligent.



By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst
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  #16  
Old 12-08-2016, 11:12 AM
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WTI bears on the offense


Oil prices were left vulnerable to losses during trading on Wednesday following the unexpected build in U.S crude inventories which elevated concerns over the excessive oversupply in the markets. It is becoming increasingly clear that the oversupply woes have become a recurrent theme that could ensure oil prices remain depressed for an extended period. WTI is fundamentally bearish with further declines expected as Saudi Arabia incessantly pumps oil to meet summer usages. Concerns over slowing global growth have heightened fears that demand may be waning and such may add to the horrible cocktail that provides a foundation for bears to install a heavy round of selling.

Earlier in the week WTI was slightly uplifted by talks over a potential output freeze which created speculative boosts on prices. The appreciation was unsustainable with the decline being of no surprise as OPEC is notoriously known for holding meetings which conclude without a solution. Oil prices could remain buoyed ahead of the informal OPEC meeting in September but such may offer bears another opportunity to attack if the meeting concludes with no new measures taken. From a technical standpointWTI Crude is bearish, a breakdown below $41 could encourage a further decline towards $40.



By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst
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  #17  
Old 12-08-2016, 11:14 AM
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Dollar sensitivity shakes markets


The Dollar has been flung on a chaotic rollercoaster ride with prices violently swinging between losses and gains as expectations fluctuate over the Federal Reserve raising US rates in 2016. During trading on Wednesday Dollar weakness rattled the currency markets but its resurgence today has suggested signs of sensitivity kicking in. Although sentiment remains bullish towards the Dollars, more sharp swings could be expected as anticipation heightens sensitivity. Investors may direct their attention towards Thursday’s unemployment claims which could provide some clarity on the health of the US economy. The main focus this week for the States is the US retail sales report and a positive release could provide the Fed a compelling reason to raise US rates this year.


By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst
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  #18  
Old 12-08-2016, 11:19 AM
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GBPUSD hits fresh monthly low


The Sterling/Dollar tumbled to fresh monthly lows at 1.2935 as a combination of Dollar’s resurgence and ongoing expectations over the BoE cutting UK rates to near zero encouraged investors to install a round of selling. Sterling remains under pressure with prices destined for steep declines if the post-Brexit uncertainty continues to haunt investor attraction towards the currency. Although UK data has been slightly mixed, the main focus is still on the effects of Brexit to the UK economy with attention directed towards the Bank of England. The bearish sentiment towards the pound is a dominant theme which could extend through the end of 2016 consequently keeping prices depressed.

From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD is bearish and the breakdown below 1.3000 could encourage a steeper decline towards 1.2800.





By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst
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  #19  
Old 12-08-2016, 04:56 PM
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Pound drops below $1.30 despite the short-term weakness in USD




There were only few economic releases scheduled for today but despite that, we have seen a clear pick-up in volatility.

Beginning from New Zealand, The kiwi surged to its highest level since May 2015 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced the official cash rate to 2.00%. The New Zealand Dollar jumped to as high as 0.7341 level as the cut was highly anticipated before to stabilize around 0.7250 level during the U.S trading session.

Looking at the economic releases for today, the U.K housing sales declined most since 2008 as the housing market is not responding well to the Brexit.

The pound sank below $1.30 psychological barrier again and cable has reached a fresh monthly low of 1.2935 reinforcing the bearish pressure in the near-term.

In the U.S, both the Initial jobless claims and the continuing claims came out higher than expected at 266K and 2155K compared to estimates of 265K and 2133K respectively.

In the meantime, Import price index MoM beats forecasts and has registered 0.1& in July against -0.4% estimated.

Finally, the new housing price index retreated in Canada during the month of June to register 0.1% down from 0.7% previously.

Now let us have a look at the recent price action in the British pound along with the U.S Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Sterling continue treading water, as the bearish momentum remain intact. Looking at the recent price action, the pair has confirmed a negative signal in the hourly chart as prices managed to break below 1.3055 major support and showed a bearish pullback around this level yesterday. The reached as high as 1.3093 level before the rally fades reinforcing the bearish outlook in this pair.

Actually, traders should focus on 1.2950/35 support zone in the coming hours, as a daily close below it should expose 1.2900 psychological support followed by 1.2875/65 levels in extension.

In the near-term, the pair is likely to remain capped below 1.3005/20 resistance zone and only a clear breakout above those levels, will warn about a potential larger correction to the upside.

To summarize, the British pound still bearish in both the daily and the hourly chart, consequently further weakness can be seen unless a break above the mentioned above resistance zone happens.

Support: 1.2950-1.2935-1.2865

Resistance: 1.3005-1.3020-1.3036





Dollar index

After bouncing from 95.00 psychological support, the U.S Dollar found strong resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent drop seen from 97.50 peak, which keep our view neutral in the near-term.

From a technical standpoint, the index is likely to remain steady above 95.00-94.75 support zone and another rally remain possible in the coming days. Meanwhile, the Greenback has lost its bullish momentum in the hourly chart, and is heading to a negative weekly close. Therefore, we prefer to wait for a clear break above 95.90 resistance level or below 95.00/94.75 support zone to confirm the next directional move in the short-term.

Finally, traders should expect an increase in volatility as FOMC September meeting looms.

Support: 95.00-94.75-94.50

Resistance: 95.90-96.20-96.80


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  #20  
Old 12-08-2016, 05:01 PM
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NZ retail sales fail to boost NZD



Yesterdays moves from the NZ economy came as no surprise with the rate cut of 25 basis points to 2.00%, and the NZDUSD jumped higher in the wake of it all, but has so far looked to retreat now as investors look to shift elsewhere. Graham wheeler quipped that before his conference yesterday that "anyone could take his role" at present as he felt unable to control the NZD given the current global climate of negative or bottom interest rates, and for the RBNZ it looks like there may be further pressure in the long run to put pressure back on interest rates if the NZD continues to remain relatively high compared to its major trading partners. But, it's not all bad news as the recent retail sales figures through shortly showed a jump for the quarter lifting to 2.3% (0.9% exp). This jump will be a positive sign that despite the recent slowdown in the economy consumers are still confident and spending in the short to medium term.

The NZDUSD has so far failed to break through resistance from yesterday at 0.7311, and after a brief attempt it pushed back down the charts as traders looked to take profit and also put pressure back on the NZDUSD in the wake of a stronger USD. Any major falls are likely to find stiff support at 0.7163 and 0.7046, further down from this and the 100 and 200 day moving average are looking very strong as well and will likely be key exit points for any traders looking for a strong technical exit. However, in the long run it may take some time given the so far bullish trend the dollar has encountered and also how keen fixed interest markets are to chase yield in commodity currencies with the rest of the world lacking.

Gold bulls have so far had a good run, but the market has been moving rapidly between levels after the recent dovish comments from the FED in previous weeks and also some positive US data which has thrown back out the possibility of a rate rise further down the line. The climb higher has also been on the back of a weaker USD, but that is also looking to change. For me gold remains a bogie man for the markets with no real direction in the short term, but a long term bullish trend that has so far remained consistent. But it's reactions to data have been somewhat more interesting and many traders may be treating it as a political hedge at present given the worries in the US political arena.

At present gold has strong resistance above it at 1358 and this level is likely to hold unless we see a shock data scenario in the services sector or labour market. Support is also looking quite tough at 1323 as the gold market looks to slip a little lower. Between these two levels it's likely we will see long wicks as traders look to find technical holes to strike and play off with the gold bugs.



By Alex Gurr, Guest Analyst
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