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  #1  
Old 21-06-2017, 11:55 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Default GOLD AND USDX : Daily Signal And Analysis From InstaForex

Trading Plan for Gold and US Dollar Index for June 21, 2017

Gold chart setups :


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Technical outlook:

Gold is looking to produce a bullish reversal today. Should it manage to close above $1,252.00 at least, the yellow metal would confirm the bullish scenario as well.

Please note that a number of convergences is seen through $1,241/45 levels as depicted above. The fibonacci 0.382 extension of a counter trend is matching up the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the trending wave.

Furthermore, prices are also seen to be bouncing right from a 6-month trend line support as seen on the Daily chart (not provided here).

A push through $1,257.00 would also confirm that the uptrend has resumed towards $1,390.00 levels at least in the weeks to follow. Immediate support is seen around $1,230 levels, while resistance is at $1,257 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Remain long on Gold for now, stop is below $1,230, target is from $1,390 and higher.


US Dollar Index chart setups :


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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index also seems to have completed its sideways consolidation structure around 97.80 for now.

Moreover, the complex corrective structure a-b-c looks to be taking resistance from the fibonacci 0.382 levels as well, which is a typical co-relation for a wave 4 termination.

If this wave count is correct and it comes to be true, we should see prices dropping lower from here and continue to print below 96.30 to complete wave 3 of a larger degree before resuming its rally.

On the flip side, it the index pushes beyond 98.00/10 levels from here it would mean that the flat corrective structure is not complete yet and should terminate around 99.00 levels.

In either case, we shall be looking to remain short (on rallies) going forward.

Trading plan:

Please remain short, stop is at 98.20/30, targeting below 96.30. Fundamental outlook:

There are no major events for the rest of the day.

Last edited by mazri_2008; 07-07-2017 at 06:17 PM..
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  #2  
Old 22-06-2017, 10:31 AM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Daily analysis of Gold for June 21, 2017


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Overview

The gold price has not shown any strong moves since morning holding around 1,245.00 levels.

Thus, there is no change in the bearish trend scenario that depends on holding below 1,254.56 levels.

Stochastic is reaching the overbought areas now.

Our main awaited target is located at 1,229.32. The expected trading range for today is between the 1,229.30 support and the 1,254.00 resistance.
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  #3  
Old 04-07-2017, 03:30 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for July 4, 2017

Gold price remains in a bearish trend making new lows below $1,235 area towards $1,220.

The precious metal is getting even more oversold and I believe we will soon have an opportunity to see a very important low and reversal.


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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price is below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen.

Price is also bouncing off the bearish blue channel and we could at least see a bounce towards the 4 hour Kumo (cloud) and the upper channel boundary near $1,240-45.


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Black line - long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

The gold weekly candle is testing the weekly Kumo.

This is very important support. If price breaks below the cloud we could see a move even lower towards the blue long-term support trend line near $1,170.
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  #4  
Old 04-07-2017, 03:35 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for July 4, 2017

The Dollar index is bouncing as expected. The price is now making the minimum bounce requirements towards short-term resistance and previous support at 96.50. Overall I expect a bigger Dollar index bounce towards 98.


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Red line - resistance

Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar Index is testing short-term resistance at 96.50 where we also find the 4-hour tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Oscillators bounce off oversold levels. I expect this bounce to continue higher.


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Blue lines - bearish channel On a weekly basis, although the trend is bearish and the price is below the weekly Kumo (cloud), I expect a short-term bounce for a week or two towards 98-98.50.

The RSI is diverging and oversold. I expect at least a move towards the lower Kumo boundary.
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  #5  
Old 06-07-2017, 02:20 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 06, 2017

The index is finding dynamic resistance around the 200 SMA area at H1 chart and the bears could appear in order to push lower to the greenback.

However, if the bullish bias comes back to action, the next target would be the resistance level of 96.77, while a pullback should push lower the US Dollar Index to test the 95.77 level.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.77 / 97.20

H1 chart's support levels: 96.38 / 95.77

Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.77, take profit is at 95.10 and stop loss is at 96.42.
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Old 07-07-2017, 06:05 PM
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Overview of #USDX (US dollar index) and forecast for the current day

The direction of the short-term trend of the US currency index is set by the final part of the downward wave model, which has been counting since March 2015.

The preliminary calculation indicates a possible zone of completion in the area of local low level region of April 2016. Option to continue the trend downward will remain relevant, however, in this section of the chart one can expect the formation of a counter correction.

The downward pullback that began yesterday is likely to end in the area of the support zone. In the future, the dollar's fluctuations will again create an upward trend.

The expected range of the daily rise does not exceed the level of the resistance zone.

Boundaries of resistance zones: - 96.70 / 80

Boundaries of support zones: - 96.15 / 05


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Explanation of the figures: For simplified wave analysis, a simple waveform is used that combines 3 parts (A; B; C). Of these waves, all kinds of correction are composed and most of the impulses.

On each considered time frame the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. The areas marked in the graphs are indicated by the calculation areas in which the probability of a change in the direction of motion is significantly increased.

Arrows indicate the wave counting according to the technique used by the author. The solid background of the arrows indicates the formed structure, the dotted line indicates the expected wave motion.
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Old 07-07-2017, 06:09 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for July 7, 2017

The Dollar index is making a higher low so far as the decline from the rejection at 96.50 has stopped around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Trend remains bearish but I prefer to be on the lookout for a reversal.


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Price is trading below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Trend is bearish. But I believe we are in a process of making a higher low and then a new upward move should follow. Short-term resistance levels that need to be broken are at 96.30 and then at 96.55.


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Blue lines - bearish channel

Trading for so long on top of the lower channel boundary implies that an explosive upward move will come. Trend is bearish as price is below the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators.

Breaking above them (96.50-96.70) will be a very bullish sign and push price towards 98-98.50.
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  #8  
Old 07-07-2017, 06:23 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for July 7, 2017

Gold price is consolidating above $1,210 and below $1,230. Price did not make a new overnight low as Silver did, while at the same time we observe bullish divergence signals by the oscillators.


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Blue lines - bearish channel

Red rectangle - resistance

Blue rectangle - support

Short-term support is at $1,217. Resistance at $1,230. I believe we have more chances of breaking resistance and moving back towards $1,250-60.

There we will see if we get another downward leg below $1,200 or break $1,300.


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On a weekly basis price is testing the weekly Kumo (cloud). Breaking below the cloud will push price towards $1,180-60. Trend is neutral as price remains trapped between the black and blue trend lines.

I remain longer-term bullish expecting Gold to eventually break $1,300 towards $1,400-$1,500. The $1,170-$1,200 price range is a gift for Gold bulls if we see it.
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Old 10-07-2017, 03:57 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 10, 2017

The greenback continues to find a bottom around 95.77 and it will try to test the 200 SMA at H1 chart in order to break higher. However, as long as it stays below that moving average, USDX will try to look for the 95.10 level in the short-term and it would happen after a breakout below 95.77. MACD indicator is turning flat, calling for sideways.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.77 / 97.20

H1 chart's support levels: 96.38 / 95.77

Trading recommendations for today:

Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.77, take profit is at 95.10 and stop loss is at 96.42.
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Old 10-07-2017, 04:08 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Technical analysis of USDX for July 10, 2017

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend although for the last couple of sessions we could be making at least a short-term low. I believe the upside has more potential than looking for the bearish side.


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The Dollar index has retraced 61.8% of the recent rise from 95.50 to 96.50. Price remains below the 4-hour Kumo. Trend remains bearish. However the recent low could be the start of a new sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Important short-term resistance is at 96.30-96.50. Breaking it will be the first important sign of a reversal.


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Blue lines - bearish channel

The weekly chart remains bearish. Price is inside a bearish channel and below the weekly Kumo.

However I believe we should expect a strong bounce towards 98.50-99. I believe we should bounce soon towards the lower Cloud boundary and the upper channel boundary.
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