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  #661  
Old 23-02-2018, 08:22 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Wave analysis of the USD / JPY currency pair for February 23, 2018


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Analysis of wave counting:

Having started the yesterday's trading with a downward movement, the currency pair USD / JPY lost more than 110 percentage points in price and was able to work out a mark of 106.65 at the end of the day. It can be assumed that, after pushing away from the maximum of the medium (107.90), the currency pair made an attempt to complete the first wave and denote the beginning of the second wave, as part of the future wave a, 4, C, C, (B). If this is so, then the currency pair can resume the growth of quotations at any time and go to the stage of formation of the wave 3, a, 4, C, C, (B). At the same time, the wave structure of the entire wave 5, 3, C, C, (B), which is not entirely convincing, allows the currency pair to continue its decline down to the level of the 104th figure.

The objectives for the option with a downward wave:

106.07 - 423.6% of Fibonacci

105.22 - 523.6% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with an upward wave:

107.25 - 108.00

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The tool continues to build a long-term uptrend. The decline in quotations may continue with the targets on the way to the level of 106.07, which corresponds to 423.6% of Fibonacci, within the framework of the construction of wave 2, a, 4, C, C, (B). After its completion, it is expected that the upgrade will resume with targets above 108 figures.
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  #662  
Old 23-02-2018, 08:33 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Fractal analysis for USD / JPY currency pairs as of February 23


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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 109.24, 108.74, 108.06, 107.81, 107.42, 106.88, 106.44, 106.04 and 105.50. Here, the price is in deep correction from the upward structure on February 16. The continuation of the development of the upward structure from February 16 is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.42. In this case, the first target is 107.81. Passing the price of the noise range of 107.81 - 108.06 will allow us to count on the movement towards the level of 108.74. Near this is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 109.24. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback towards the bottom.

Consolidated movement is possible in the area of 106.88 - 106.44. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 106.04. The breakdown of this level, in turn, will initiate the development of a downward trend on the scale of H1. In this case, the potential target is 105.50.

The main trend is the upward structure of February 16, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.42 Take profit: 107.40

Buy: 108.08 Take profit: 108.70

Sell: 106.42 Take profit: 106.08

Sell: 106.42 Take profit: 106.06

Last edited by mazri_2008; 23-02-2018 at 08:51 PM..
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  #663  
Old 23-02-2018, 10:55 PM
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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for February 23, 2018


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Overview

The USD/JPY pair traded with clear negativity yesterday to settle below 23.6% Fibonacci correction level for the decline from 113.37 to 105.54, which puts the price under negative pressure that might return trades to the main bearish trend again.

However, on the other hand, stochastic shows clear positive signals that might help the price recover and show more bullish correction, especially that the price is still out of the main bearish channel that appears on the chart. Therefore, we prefer to stay aside until we get a clearer signal for the next trend. A breach of 107.40 will make the price resume the correctional bullish track with the next target located at 108.53.

A break of 106.30 represents the key to returning to the main bearish trend with its main targets beginning at 105.54. The expected trading range for today is between the 106.00 support and the 107.70 resistance.
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  #664  
Old 23-02-2018, 11:16 PM
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USD / JPY.

On Thursday, the yen did not receive sufficient support from foreign markets and some aggressive players quickly closed purchases of the beginning of the week. The US stock index S & P500 added only 0.1%, Russell2000 lost -0.20%. Today, in the Asian session, investor sentiment is improving; the Japanese Nikkei225 is growing by 0.51%, the Chinese China A50 by 0.22%, the Indian Nifty50 + 0.33%.

Japanese CPIs came out good today. The base index in the January estimate remained at 0.9% y / y against the expectation of a decrease to 0.8% y / y, the total CPI increased from 1.0% y / y to 1.4% y / y, while 1.3 % y / y. Japanese media are beginning to interpret positive Japanese data as a condition for further risk, and negative data as confidence that the Bank of Japan will not rush with the curtailment of monetary incentives. This feature tells us that the Central Bank has really set about correcting the situation and the markets are given a medium-term direction.

We are waiting for the yen to rise to the level of 108.00. Further to the range of 108.50 / 80.


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  #665  
Old 23-02-2018, 11:17 PM
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USD/JPY: From Monday to Wednesday, the price moved upwards by 170 pips (from the demand level at 106.00 and to just above the demand level at 107.50). That become a threat to the existing bearishness in the market, but bears were able to save the day as the price was pushed lower on Thursday, thus saving the week in favor of the bearish bias. The market can go lower.


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  #666  
Old 23-02-2018, 11:26 PM
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 23, 2018


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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook as the key resistance is at 107.60. The pair is off the low of 106.58 seen overnight (February 22). Currently, it has returned to levels above the descending 20-period moving average while being capped by the 50-period one and the key resistance at 107.15. The relative strength index has not yet recovered the neutral level of 50, indicating a lack of upward momentum for the pair. As long as the key resistance at 107.65 is not surpassed, intraday bearishness persists, and the pair could pull back to 106.55 (around the yesterday low) before declining further to 106.10.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended to be above 107.60 with a target of 107.90.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 107.60, take profit at 106.55.

Resistance levels: 107.90, 108.40, and 108.90

Support levels: 106.55, 106.10, and 105.70.
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  #667  
Old 08-03-2018, 03:41 PM
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 08, 2018


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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Final GDP q/q, Final GDP Price Index y/y, Current Account, and Bank Lending y/y. On the US front, the US will also release some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 106.66 Resistance 2: 106.45 Resistance 1: 106.24

Support 1: 105.99 Support 2: 105.78 Support 3: 105.57
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  #668  
Old 08-03-2018, 03:43 PM
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USD/JPY starting to break out nicely, time to turn bullish

Price has started to break out of our descending resistance-turned-support line signalling that a change in momentum should be expected. We look to buy above major support at 105.85 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, breakout level) for a push up to at least 107.09 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance). We do have to be cautious with our immediate resistance at 106.44 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) which needs to be broken to open a further bullish recovery.

RSI (34) sees descending resistance which coincides with our resistance at 106.44. A break above our descending resistance needs to occur before a further rise can be expected.

Buy above 105.85. Stop loss at 105.40. Take profit at 107.09.


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  #669  
Old 08-03-2018, 04:28 PM
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Trade review of USD / JPY pair for March 8 by simplified wave analysis

Since the end of 2016, the trend direction of the Japanese yen major pair on the daily scale chart is set by a bearish wave. In a larger model, this wave corrects the upward movement of the pair. By now, its structure has fully formed and all parts of the wave have reached the correct proportions. the price reached the upper limit of the potential reversal zone in the middle of last month. The probable completion of the preliminary level of the entire current bearish construction in its framework.

Today, the pair is expected to have a common flat tone. In the first half of the day, a downward pullback is likely but not beyond the boundaries of the support zone. By the end of the day, the chance of a change in direction increases with the beginning of a price rise increase.

Boundaries of resistance zones: - 106.40 / 70

Boundaries of support zones: - 105.80 / 50



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  #670  
Old 08-03-2018, 04:47 PM
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The yen will not give up and may gain victory

USD / JPY

Yesterday, the Japanese yen lost more than 60 points but was decisively pulled from the bottoms formally on the growth of US stock indices in the last trading hours. As a result of the day, S & P500 closed the day in the red at 0.05%, while the Dow Jones lost even more by -0.33%, but the Nasdaq technology gained 0.33%. The small-cap companies Russell2000 Index shot up by 0.83%. This is a good sign of further growth in the major US indices.

The index of Japan's leading economic indicators for January fell to 104.8% from 107.4%, and the forecast for a more moderate decline to 106.5%. This morning, investors were pleased with the GDP and indicators of Japan balance of payments. January Current Account adjusted for seasonal fluctuations amounted to 2.02 trillion yen against the forecast of 1.76 trillion and 1.68 trillion yen in December, it was revised to an increase of 1.48 trillion. Current Account, excluding seasonal fluctuations, has dropped from 0.797 trillion yen to 0.607 trillion yen. However, the positive sign shows that the consensus forecast was expected to decline to 0.310 trillion yen.

The final estimate of the GDP for the fourth quarter increased from 0.1% to 0.4% in comparison with the revised forecast to 0.2%. On an annualized basis, the GDP rose to 1.6% against expectations of 0.9% YoY. The consumer spending in the fourth quarter increased by 0.5%, which corresponds to growth in the third quarter.

China was also satisfied for this day, as in the balance of trade. The increase in exports was very quick, from 11.1% YoY to 44.5% YoY. At the same time, the Japanese stock index Nikkei225 adds 0.46%, and Chinese China A50 by 0.93%

We are expecting for the yen to rise to 107.40.


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