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Old 10-07-2012, 05:51 AM
mnur mnur is offline

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Lightbulb Semua FX trader mesti tau - Top 5 Factors Affecting Exchange Rates

Exchange rates change by the second. Understand the dynamics that affect them. Currency changes affect you, whether you are actively trading in the foreign exchange market, planning your next vacation, shopping online for goods from another country—or just buying food and staples imported from abroad.

Like any commodity, the value of a currency rises and falls in response to the forces of supply and demand. Everyone needs to spend, and consumer spending directly affects the money supply (and vice versa). The supply and demand of a country’s money is reflected in its foreign exchange rate.

When a country’s economy falters, consumer spending declines and trading sentiment for its currency turns sour, leading to a decline in that country’s currency against other currencies with stronger economies. On the other hand, a booming economy will lift the value of its currency, if there is no government intervention to restrain it.

Consumer spending is influenced by a number of factors: the price of goods and services (inflation), employment, interest rates, government initiatives, and so on. Here are some economic factors you can follow to identify economic trends and their effect on currencies.

U.S. dollar strength Read market commentary on how the U.S. dollar will perform against the euro and other major currencies based on these top 5 factors.

U.S. dollar quarterly strength table

"Benchmark" interest rates from central banks influence the retail rates financial institutions charge customers to borrow money. For instance, if the economy is under-performing, central banks may lower interest rates to make it cheaper to borrow; this often boosts consumer spending, which may help expand the economy. To slow the rate of inflation in an overheated economy, central banks raise the benchmark so borrowing is more expensive.

Interest rates are of particular concern to investors seeking a balance between yield returns and safety of funds. When interest rates go up, so do yields for assets denominated in that currency; this leads to increased demand by investors and causes an increase in the value of the currency in question. If interest rates go down, this may lead to a flight from that currency to another.

Official economic figures Access more than 150 economic figures from the world's major markets. Latest figures are graphed against years of previous economic data.

Economic indicators

Employment levels have an immediate impact on economic growth. As unemployment increases, consumer spending falls because jobless workers have less money to spend on non-essentials. Those still employed worry for the future and also tend to reduce spending and save more of their income.

An increase in unemployment signals a slowdown in the economy and possible devaluation of a country's currency because of declining confidence and lower demand. If demand continues to decline, the currency supply builds and further exchange rate depreciation is likely. One of the most anticipated employment reports is the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), a reliable indicator of U.S. employment issued the first Friday of every month.

To meet the needs of a growing population, an economy must expand. However, if growth occurs too rapidly, price increases will outpace wage advances so that even if workers earn more on average, their actual buying power decreases. Most countries target economic growth at a rate of about 2% per year. With higher growth comes higher inflation, and in this situation central banks typically raise interest rates to increase the cost of borrowing in an attempt to slow spending within the economy. A change in interest rates may signal a change in currency rates.

Deflation is the opposite of inflation; it occurs during times of recession and is a sign of economic stagnation. Central banks often lower interest rates to boost consumer spending in hopes of reversing this trend.

A country's balance of trade is the total value of its exports, minus the total value of its imports. If this number is positive, the country is said to have a favorable balance of trade. If the difference is negative, the country has a trade gap, or trade deficit.

Trade balance impacts supply and demand for a currency. When a country has a trade surplus, demand for its currency increases because foreign buyers must exchange more of their home currency in order to buy its goods. A trade deficit, on the other hand, increases the supply of a country’s currency and could lead to devaluation if supply greatly exceeds demand.

With interest rates in several major economies already very low (and set to stay that way for the time being), central bank and government officials are now resorting to other, less commonly used measures to directly intervene in the market and influence economic growth.

For example, quantitative easing is being used to increase the money supply within an economy. It involves the purchase of government bonds and other assets from financial institutions to provide the banking system with additional liquidity. Quantitative easing is considered a last resort when the more typical response—lowering interest rates —fails to boost the economy. It comes with some risk: increasing the supply of a currency could result in a devaluation of the currency.

Last edited by mnur; 10-07-2012 at 05:54 AM..
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Old 10-07-2012, 01:02 PM
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Old 10-07-2012, 01:06 PM
hurairah01 hurairah01 is offline
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Old 10-07-2012, 01:14 PM
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Old 10-07-2012, 02:16 PM
mnur mnur is offline

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Da topik BI
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Old 10-07-2012, 09:19 PM
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tolong translate kan...

Kadar pertukaran berubah oleh kedua. Memahami dinamik yang memberi kesan kepada mereka. Perubahan mata wang memberi kesan kepada anda, samada anda aktif berniaga dalam pasaran pertukaran asing, merancang percutian anda yang seterusnya, membeli-belah dalam talian untuk barang-barang dari negara atau lain hanya membeli makanan dan stapler yang diimport dari luar negara.

Seperti mana-mana komoditi, nilai mata wang naik dan jatuh sebagai tindak balas kepada kuasa-kuasa penawaran dan permintaan. Setiap orang perlu untuk berbelanja, dan perbelanjaan pengguna secara langsung memberi kesan kepada bekalan wang (dan sebaliknya). Permintaan dan penawaran wang negara dicerminkan dalam kadar pertukaran asing.

Apabila ekonomi negara falters, penurunan perbelanjaan pengguna dan sentimen dagangan bagi mata wang bertukar masam, yang membawa kepada penurunan dalam mata wang negara tersebut berbanding mata wang lain dengan ekonomi yang lebih kukuh. Sebaliknya, ekonomi berkembang pesat akan mengangkat nilai mata wang, jika tiada campur tangan kerajaan untuk menghalang.

Perbelanjaan pengguna dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor: harga barangan dan perkhidmatan (inflasi), pekerjaan, kadar faedah, inisiatif kerajaan, dan sebagainya. Berikut adalah beberapa faktor ekonomi anda boleh ikuti untuk mengenal pasti trend ekonomi dan kesan mereka ke atas mata wang.

Kekuatan dolar AS Read ulasan pasaran bagaimana dolar Amerika Syarikat (AS) akan melaksanakan berbanding euro dan mata wang utama yang lain yang berdasarkan 5 faktor utama.

Kekuatan dolar AS jadual suku

"Tanda Aras" kadar faedah dari bank pusat mempengaruhi kadar runcit institusi kewangan mengenakan pelanggan untuk meminjam wang. Sebagai contoh, jika ekonomi adalah di bawah berbayar, bank-bank pusat mungkin menurunkan kadar faedah untuk menjadikannya lebih murah untuk meminjam; ini sering meningkatkan perbelanjaan pengguna, yang boleh membantu mengembangkan ekonomi. Untuk memperlahankan kadar inflasi dalam ekonomi yang terlampau panas, bank-bank pusat menaikkan ukur supaya pinjaman adalah lebih mahal.

Kadar faedah adalah perhatian khusus kepada pelabur yang mencari keseimbangan antara pulangan hasil dan keselamatan dana. Apabila kadar faedah naik, begitu juga hasil bagi aset yang didenominasikan dalam mata wang itu, ini membawa kepada peningkatan permintaan oleh pelabur dan menyebabkan peningkatan dalam nilai mata wang dalam soalan. Jika kadar faedah turun, ini boleh membawa kepada penerbangan dari mata wang yang lain.

Rasmi angka-angka ekonomi Akses lebih daripada 150 angka-angka ekonomi daripada pasaran utama di dunia. Terbaru rajah graf terhadap tahun data ekonomi yang sebelumnya.

Petunjuk ekonomi

Tahap pekerjaan mempunyai kesan segera terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sebagai pengangguran meningkat, perbelanjaan pengguna jatuh kerana pengangguran pekerja mempunyai wang yang kurang untuk dibelanjakan pada bukan-penting. Mereka masih bekerja kebimbangan untuk masa depan dan juga cenderung untuk mengurangkan perbelanjaan dan menjimatkan lebih daripada pendapatan mereka.

Peningkatan dalam pengangguran menandakan kelembapan dalam ekonomi dan penurunan nilai mata wang sesebuah negara kerana keyakinan menurun dan permintaan yang lebih rendah. Sekiranya permintaan terus merosot, bekalan mata wang membina dan susut nilai kadar pertukaran lanjut mungkin. Salah satu laporan pekerjaan yang dinanti-nantikan adalah Amerika Syarikat (AS) Bukan-Farm Payroll (NFP), penunjuk dipercayai pekerjaan Amerika Syarikat yang dikeluarkan hari Jumaat pertama setiap bulan.

Untuk memenuhi keperluan penduduk yang semakin meningkat, ekonomi perlu berkembang. Walau bagaimanapun, jika pertumbuhan berlaku terlalu cepat, kenaikan harga akan mengatasi pendahuluan gaji supaya walaupun pekerja yang mendapat pendapatan lebih secara purata, kuasa membeli sebenar mereka berkurangan. Kebanyakan negara menyasarkan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kadar kira-kira 2% setiap tahun. Dengan pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi datang inflasi yang lebih tinggi, dan ini keadaan bank pusat biasanya menaikkan kadar faedah untuk meningkatkan kos pinjaman dalam usaha untuk memperlahankan perbelanjaan dalam ekonomi. Perubahan dalam kadar faedah mungkin isyarat perubahan dalam kadar mata wang.

Deflasi adalah bertentangan dengan inflasi, ia berlaku pada masa kemelesetan dan tanda genangan ekonomi. Bank-bank pusat biasanya kadar faedah yang lebih rendah untuk menggalakkan perbelanjaan pengguna dengan harapan mengubah trend ini.

Kira-kira Sebuah negara perdagangan ialah jumlah nilai eksport, tolak jumlah nilai import. Jika nombor ini adalah positif, negara ini dikatakan mempunyai baki yang menggalakkan perdagangan. Jika perbezaan itu adalah negatif, negara ini mempunyai jurang perdagangan, atau defisit perdagangan.

Berdagang kesan baki bekalan dan permintaan bagi mata wang. Apabila sesebuah negara mempunyai lebihan dagangan, permintaan untuk mata wangnya meningkat kerana pembeli asing mesti bertukar-tukar mata wang rumah mereka untuk membeli barang-barang. Defisit perdagangan, di sisi lain, meningkatkan bekalan mata wang negara dan boleh membawa kepada penurunan nilai jika bekalan banyak melebihi permintaan.

Dengan kadar faedah di beberapa ekonomi utama sudah sangat rendah (dan bersedia untuk diri anda yang sebenar pada masa itu), bank pusat dan pegawai-pegawai kerajaan kini lain, langkah-langkah yang kurang lazim digunakan secara langsung campur tangan dalam pasaran dan pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Sebagai contoh, pelonggaran kuantitatif telah digunakan untuk meningkatkan penawaran wang dalam ekonomi. Ia melibatkan pembelian bon kerajaan dan lain-lain aset daripada institusi kewangan untuk menyediakan sistem perbankan dengan mudah tunai tambahan. Kelonggaran kuantitatif dianggap sebagai langkah terakhir apabila lebih tipikal tindak balas penurunan kadar faedah gagal untuk meningkatkan ekonomi. Ia datang dengan risiko: meningkatkan bekalan mata wang boleh mengakibatkan penurunan nilai mata wang.

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Old 10-07-2012, 11:04 PM
abu85 abu85 is offline
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thanks for sharing... heheh.. panjang tul nak kena baca
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Old 22-08-2012, 11:27 AM
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Terima kasih !!
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Old 23-08-2012, 05:24 PM
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bagus artikel ni..
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Old 21-09-2012, 09:50 AM
akubudakgetah86 akubudakgetah86 is offline
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"Semua FX trader mesti tau" - awat aku xtau pn???
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