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  #41  
Old 21-07-2011, 03:06 PM
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Daily Forecast 21/07/2011

By Setyo Wibowo

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, broke above the symmetrical triangle and 1.4200 resistance area as you can see on my h4 below and now seems ready to test July 13th high at 1.4281, which is also the EMA 200 region on h4 chart. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.4281 testing the upper line of my daily chart descending triangle (red) and 1.4373 resistance area. Immediate support is seen around 1.4200 – 1.4170 region. As long as price stays above that area my intraday bias remains to the upside. A clear break below that area would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear. CCI in bullish zone both in hourly and h4 chart but remains neutral on daily chart. Technically speaking, if the bullish continues and lead price breaks above 1.4373 and brings daily CCI in bullish zone above 100 level, we may see further bullish scenario. The fundamental aspects of the Euro zone remain fragile and might need just one bad news to cancel the current technical bullishness and lead us back to a consolidation condition but would give the descending triangle bearish scenario a good chance to bring the single currency to the downside.




GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday, trapped in range area of 1.6176 – 1.6053 since Tuesday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and there are no changes on my daily technical outlook. Price still in a bullish correction phase since the appearance of the hammer formation on July 12th but the major bearish scenario remains intact as long as price moves inside the bearish channel. I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and the upper line of the bearish channel and 1.6192 area remains a good place for a short position due to a very good risk – reward ratio there, a tight stop loss above the bearish channel and 1.6192 resistance area. A clear break above that area and violation to the bearish channel could be a threat to my bearish outlook at least testing 1.6260 even higher as a new bullish phase might take place. Immediate support remains around 1.6060. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.6000 and 1.5950 support area and keep the major bearish scenario remain strong.




USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 78.70 and closed at 78.81. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 78.24 but note that as long as price stays above 78.24 price is still in a consolidation phase and need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario testing 76.21. Immediate resistance is seen around 79.00 followed by 79.55. As long as price stays below 79.55 my overall technical bias remains strongly to the downside.




USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the fact that 0.8274 resistance area still hold so far keep my bearish outlook intact and only a clear break above that area could stop my strong bearish intraday outlook. Immediate support remains around 0.8180. A clear break below that area could change the intraday bias back to bearish retesting the record low 0.8080. However note that from a daily chart point of view, as long as price moves above 0.8080, USDCHF is still in a consolidation phase and need a clear break below 0.8080 to continue the major bearish scenario testing 0.8000.




EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 111.65 but whipsawed to the upside and slipped above the symmetrical triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact could change my intraday bias to bullish especially if price able to make a clear break above 112.50 testing 113.40 key resistance area. Immediate support is seen at 112.00 followed by 111.65. Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario as long as price stays below 113.40 but until we have a clear break below 109.45 price is still in a consolidation phase.




GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. My intraday technical focus remains at the 127.77 – 128.18 key resistance area which has been tested several times but still holds, keep my bearish outlook remains strong and that area remains a good place for a short position with a tight stop loss above 128.18. The upside pressure seems limited for now, but the fact that there are several attempts to the upside this week could mean a serious challenge to my strong bearish intraday bias. A clear break above 128.18 could trigger further bullish scenario testing 129.40 region and the trend line resistance (red). Immediate support remains around 126.60. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 125.95 support area.




AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday but overall still able to maintain the strong intraday bullish bias which happened on Tuesday. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook where price still trapped in a range area of 1.0770/90 – 1.0500 and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. Aggressive intraday traders can still short around 1.0770/90 with a tight stop loss as a clear break above 1.0790 could trigger further upside attempt testing 1.0887 even the all time high 1.1010. Immediate support is seen around 1.0670. A clear break below that area could change the intraday bias to bearish testing 1.0600 – 1.0550 but as long as price stays above 1.0500 overall price is still in a consolidation/sideways mode.

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  #42  
Old 22-07-2011, 05:33 PM
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Daily Forecast 22/07/2011

By Setyo Wibowo

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish bias yesterday, slipped above my descending triangle as you can see on my daily chart below, hit 1.4436. This fact is a serious threat to the bearish phase since the fall from 1.4939, keep the bullish intraday bias remains strong testing July 03 high at 1.4577. This bullish momentum is a part of the bullish warning since the appearance of the hammer formation on July 12th and the rejection to move below 1.3850 support area last week. Immediate support is seen around 1.4330 followed by 1.4281. A clear break below 1.4281 would stop the current bullish intraday outlook and could create a bearish pressure as we could have another false breakout above the triangle.




GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday on broad US Dollar weakness, broke above 1.6192 resistance area and violated my bearish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. This fact cancels the bearish scenario and might be the early signal of a new bullish phase. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6375 – 1.6440. Immediate support is seen around 1.6250. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays above 1.6192 my overall intraday bias remains to the upside.




USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempt to push lower yesterday but found a good intraday support around 78.24 as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break and daily close below 78.24 testing 76.21. Immediate resistance is seen around 78.80 – 79.00. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 79.55 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.




GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday on broad US Dollar weakness, broke above 1.6192 resistance area and violated my bearish channel as you can see on my daily chart below. This fact cancels the bearish scenario and might be the early signal of a new bullish phase. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6375 – 1.6440. Immediate support is seen around 1.6250. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays above 1.6192 my overall intraday bias remains to the upside.




EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish bias yesterday and now testing 113.40 key resistance area after broke above the symmetrical triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 113.40 testing the trend line resistance (white) and 114.75 resistance area. Aggressive intraday traders can still short around 113.40 due to a good risk – reward ratio there with a tight stop loss as a clear break above 113.40 could continue the bullish intraday pressure. Immediate support is seen around 112.50. A clear break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 111.45 and keep price is range outlook between 113.40 – 109.45.




GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday and convincingly closed above 127.77 resistance (now support). The bias is bullish in nearest term testing the trend line resistance (red) and 129.40. However note that as long as price moves below the trend line resistance the major bearish scenario remains intact. On the downside, a clear break back below 127.77 would lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear, testing 126.99 – 126.60 support area but also could create a false breakout scenario, pushing the pair lower.




AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, convincingly closed above 1.0790. This fact could trigger further bullish scenario testing 1.0887 and 1.1010 even aiming for new historical highs. Immediate support is seen around 1.0770/90 (former resistance). A clear break below that area would activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear.

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  #43  
Old 25-07-2011, 05:01 PM
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Daily Forecast 25/07/2011

By Setyo Wibowo

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum last week, topped at 1.4436 but traded lower earlier today in Asian session hit 1.4341. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As you can see on my hourly chart below, price is still in a bullish phase since the bullish momentum from 1.3836. Key intraday support is seen around 1.4281 (former resistance), which is the area of 38.2% Fibobacci retracement of 1.3836 – 1.4436 and the trend line support (white). However, there is a double top formation at 1.4436 which could create a downside correction testing 1.4281 and the trend line support area and we need a clear break above 1.4436 to continue the bullish outlook at least testing 1.4480 – 1.4500 resistance area. On the downside, a clear break below 1.4281 and the trend line support could be a threat to the current bullish intraday outlook testing 1.4100 – 1.4000 as another false breakout from my descending triangle (daily chart) could trigger another significant bearish pullback.




GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum last week, broke above the bearish channel and 1.6192 key resistance area. On my hourly chart below, the red trend line is actually the upper line of the violated bearish channel. Price has been moving sideway after the breakout and important intraday range to be closely watch is between 1.6250 – 1.6338. We need a clear break above 1.6338 to continue the bullish scenario and give further confirmation to the bullish scenario testing 1.6375 – 1.6400 even higher. On the downside, 1.6250 – 1.6192 area seems to be a good place for intraday buying activity due to a good risk reward ratio there, a tight stop loss on a clear break below 1.6192.




USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart after unable to make a clear break below 78.24 key support area. My overall technical bias remains strongly to the downside but until we have a clear break and daily close below 78.24, price is still in a consolidation phase. Immediate resistance is seen around 78.54 (current high). A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback but as long as price stays below 79.55 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. A clear break and daily close below 78.24 would give further confirmation to the bearish continuation scenario testing 76.21 region.




USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had some bearish pressures earlier today in Asian session, testing 0.8080 record low as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.8080 testing 0.8000 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.8135. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term and keep price in a consolidation phase in a range area of 0.8080 – 0.8274 but as long as price stays below 0.8274 my overall intraday bias remains to the downside. Only a clear break above 0.8274 could be a threat to the current strong bearish outlook and make 0.8080 as a bottom, a double bottom formation which could create a bullish reversal scenario.




EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY slipped above 113.40 key resistance of Friday but unable to closed above that level and traded lower earlier today in Asian session hit 112.39. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As long as price stays below 113.40 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and the current false break above 113.40 could create a bearish intraday pressure testing the trend line support (red) and 111.45 region. On the upside, only a clear break and daily close above 113.40 could trigger further bullish pressure testing the trend line resistance (white) and 114.75.




GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bullish intraday bias on Friday and traded back below 122.77 earlier today in Asian session. My intraday bias is a little bit mess now. Price has been crossing the 127.77 level up and down without clear direction and momentum. As long as price stays below the trend line resistance (red) the bearish scenario should remain intact. Aggressive intraday traders can reactivate their bearish intraday mode as price has back below 127.77 with a tight stop loss above 128.18. Immediate support is seen around 127.00 followed by 126.60. A daily close back below 126.60 would reactivate my bearish intraday mode, testing 125.95 and 124.85.




AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive on Friday and unable to make a clear break above 1.0887 resistance area. The bias is neutral in nearest term but unless price makes a daily close back below 1.0770 my overall intraday bias is to the upside. A clear break and daily close back below 1.0770 could trigger a bearish momentum as a false breakout scenario might be produced and could reopen the door for another bearish correction scenario after hit all time high 1.1010 retesting 1.0500 key support area. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 1.0887 could continue the bullish momentum retesting 1.1010, even aiming for new historical high.

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  #44  
Old 26-07-2011, 03:33 PM
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Daily Forecast 26/07/2011

By Setyo Wibowo

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday but had a significant bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, break above 1.4436 and hit 1.4499 after a sideways movement between 1.4436 – 1.4320 as you can see on my hourly chart below. This fact could trigger further bullish scenario testing 1.4550/77 region in nearest term. On the downside, another movement back below 1.4436 would lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays above the trend line support (white) my overall intraday bias remains to the upside and only a break below the trend line support could be a threat to the current strong bullish intraday outlook.




GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday but had a significant bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session testing 1.6338 key intraday resistance as you can see on my hourly chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.6338 testing 1.6375 – 1.6400. Immediate support remains around 1.6250 – 1.6192. Only a clear break below 1.6192 could be a threat to the current bullish intraday outlook.




USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday but had a significant bearish pressure earlier today in Asian session, broke below 78.24 and hit 77.88. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 77.35 region before targeting 76.21, which might be hit if price able to close below 78.24 today. Immediate resistance is seen around 78.65 (current high). A clear break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term. We have a CCI bullish divergence on daily chart suggests a potential bullish pullback, but as long as price stays below 79.55 my overall intraday bias remains to the downside.




USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, closed below 0.8080 and hit a new record low at 0.8004 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.8000 psychological level, aiming for a new record low around 0.7900. On the upside, another move back above 0.8080 could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8150 region but overall my intraday bias remains strongly to the downside.




EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant move yesterday but had a significant bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, retesting 113.40 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term but as long as price stays below 113.40 I still prefer a bearish scenario. Short around 113.40 seems to be a good intraday plan for now with a tight stop loss on a clear break above 113.40 as a clear break above 113.40 could trigger further bullish pressure testing the trend line resistance (white) and 114.75 region. Immediate support is seen around 112.50 and the trend line support (red). A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 111.45 and would reopen the door for another downside attempt retesting 109.45.




EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant move yesterday but had a significant bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, retesting 113.40 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term but as long as price stays below 113.40 I still prefer a bearish scenario. Short around 113.40 seems to be a good intraday plan for now with a tight stop loss on a clear break above 113.40 as a clear break above 113.40 could trigger further bullish pressure testing the trend line resistance (white) and 114.75 region. Immediate support is seen around 112.50 and the trend line support (red). A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 111.45 and would reopen the door for another downside attempt retesting 109.45.




AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday but had a significant bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, broke above 1.0887 and hit 1.0923 on a broad US Dollar weakness. The bias is bullish in nearest term retesting 1.1010 historical high. On the downside, another movement back below 1.0887 could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but only a break back below 1.0770 could stop the current strong bullish intraday outlook.

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  #45  
Old 27-07-2011, 03:12 PM
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Daily Forecast 27/07/2011


By Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4524 and closed at 1.4507. The bias is bullish in nearest term, but so far price still unable to make a significant breakout above 1.4520/40 resistance area as you can see on my hourly chart below. So actually from hourly chart point of view, price still trapped in the range area of 1.4520/40 – 1.4436 and need a clear break above 1.4520/40 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.4577 before targeting 1.4695. On the downside, a failure to make a clear break above 1.4520/40 could lead price to a minor downside correction testing 1.4436 support area. I do not expect any move below that area as it would diminish the current strong bullish bias but as long as price stays above the trend line support my overall intraday bias remains to the upside.




GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, strongly broke above 1.6338 and hit 1.6438 earlier today in Asian session. This bullish momentum is the continuation after the violation to the bearish channel and a break above 1.6192, targeting 1.6545. A clear break above that area would open the door for further bullish scenario testing April high at 1.6745. Immediate support is seen around 1.6370 followed by 1.6338. Only a clear break back below 1.6338 would change my bias to a neutral zone in nearest term and could open the door for further bearish pullback testing 1.6192.




USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, closed below 78.24 and hit 77.77 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 77.35 before retesting 76.21. On the upside, another move back above 78.24 could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price stays below 79.55 my overall technical bias remains strongly to the downside.




USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish bias yesterday but still unable to make a clear break below 0.8000 psychological level. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.8000 aiming for a new record low around 0.7900. Immediate resistance remains around 0.8080. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but until we have a movement above 0.8274 or any significant technical sign of correction/reversal, my overall technical bias remains strongly to the downside.




EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday but still unable to make a clear break above 113.40 key resistance area so far. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 113.40 testing 114.75 and the trend line resistance (white). Aggressive intraday traders can still short around 113.40 with a tight stop loss. Immediate support is seen around 112.50 and the minor trend line support (red) followed by 111.45.




GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, hit 128.15. Overall there are no changes in my daily technical outlook where price is still in a bullish correction phase since the bullish momentum from 124.85, testing the trend line resistance (red) and 129.40 especially if price able to make a clear break above 128.40. Price also has been moving in a sideways mode, so aggressive intraday traders may still short with tight stop loss above 128.40. Immediate support is seen around 127.77 followed by 126.60 region. Price is in a bullish intraday phase, but only a break above the trend line resistance could trigger further bullish scenario and as long as price stays below the trend line, any bullish movement should be seen just as a corrective movement.




AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday and had a significant bullish continuation earlier today in Asian session, hit a new historical high at 1.1061. The bias remains bullish in nearest term aiming for a new historical high projection around 1.1100/50. Immediate support is seen around 1.1010 (former historical low). A clear break below that area could lead price to a neutral zone in nearest term but until we have a technical sign of correction/reversal, my overall technical bias remains strongly to the upside.

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Old 02-08-2011, 03:12 PM
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Daily Forecast 2/8/2011

By Mark De La Paz

After all the circus act the house vote on increasing the debt cieling and spending cuts finally passed as moderates on both sides of the aisle came through for the administration. From here we will be seeing more of a formality as the bill gets raised to the senate at 12EST later and down again for final approval and signining at the White House. Market response to the passing however has been muted with yesterdays huge drop in ISM Manufacturing Index to 50.9 from 55.3 and against a 55.0 consensus highlighting the risk of another recession. Already we have the likes of Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize winner for economics drawing parallels with this move to curtail spending to the 1930′s economic malaise.

EURJPY

Res: 110.84/111.38/112.15
Sup: 110.12/109.52/108.71

Just as with most of the Yen crosses EURJPY saw a high wave spinning top Monday with indicators showing mixed signals macd’s continuing to drop while stochastic has come-off oversold levels. Note we were rejected from the daily EMA lines yesterday. In the lower time frames we are seeing more mixed signals from the 4H charts and hourly indicators. For now given proximity to a strong support at 110.12 we suggest remaining sidelined. A close under 110.12 on an hourly basis may be seen as an excuse to jump short, otherwise look for buy signals to develop while just above the region.

EURUSD

Res: 1.4286/1.4345/1.4383
Sup: 1.4237/1.4184/1.4138

In the end yesterday’s volatile trade still saw a weaker Euro with lower highs and lower lows from the daily charts for the past week. Indicators see stochastic opening lower and macd poised at a bear cross with prices under the flat EMA lines. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals as 4H stochastic push up while macd drops and hourly indicators show a bullish bias with stochastic overbought and macd bottoming. We prefer taking the short side of EURUSD from just under 1.4345, currently we are just below the 38.2 Fib at 1.4286 though given we find EURGBP around a strong support we are unwilling to immediately take the sell side unless EURGBP break lower.

AUDJPY

Res: 85.52/86.24/86.61
Sup: 84.67/84.24/83.81

Along with rest of the yen crosses we saw a big roller coaster ride Monday to end up with a high-wave spinning top, indecision candle. Daily indicators suggest we look for an upside break with macd and stochastic pointing higher. Intraday we have a bullish view from the 4H picture as macd begin to cross up and stochastic rise, hourly indicators are mixed stochastic coming off overbought levels. Given data coming out best to wait for the actual results although bias calls for an upside breakout, consider longs on better than expected results out of Australian Building Approvals and House Price Index for a push to strong resistances at 86.24.

AUDUSD

Res: 1.1012/1.1032/1.1080
Sup: 1.0968/1.0917/1.0875

We find AUDUSD in mixed trade with indecision candles for the daily charts while indicators show stochastic dropping and macd rising, for now we have prices just under 1.1012. Intraday we have a mixed view with 4H indicators, macd down stochastic up. Hourly indicators are bullish with stochastic overbought and macd just crossing higher. Note we have numbers Australia at 0130GMT, we will consider buys above 1.1012 if Building Approvals and the House Price Index exceed consensus forecast at 2.6% and -0.9% respectively. We further have the RBA’s Rate Statement at 0430GMT.

USDJPY

Res: 77.66/78.18/78.54
Sup: 77.09/76.58/76.29

After seeing a huge sell-off USDJPY managed to close with a high-wave spinning top following calmer markets as the US debt bill passed the vote in the lower house. Along with daily canlde we also see mixed signals as stochastic pushed out of oversold levels while macd and the EMA lines remain bearish. From 4H charts we have a bullish divergence in stochastic with macd also up. Hourly indicators are mixed with stochastic coming off overbought levels. For now we appear to be coming off the 78.6 Fib of yesterday’s sell-off from Asia to European trade, 77.66. Consider shorts from just under said level for another push lower, note equity markets in Asia are down on fears that a clamp down on government expenditures will further slow the US economy.




PS: Tiada update dari Setyo Wibowo kebelakangan ini...
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Old 03-08-2011, 02:19 PM
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Daily Forecast 3/8/2011

By Mark De La Paz


With the US spending cuts a done deal we are seeing a sentiment knock on commodity currencies as already anemic growth in the US is seen likely to head into recession when government disengages from the economy. For now this concern has lead to a sharp sell-off in Aussy and Kiwi pairs which could be but the start of a reversal despite arguments that precious metals demand could offset things. Note were we to assume that all the gold the world produced comes out of Australia this only amounts to about $128 billion a year a far cry to the daily $284 billion Australian dollars that gets traded. Going forward we will be looking at a sell on rallies for the commodity currencies, AUD, NZD, and CAD.


GBPUSD

Res: 1.6307/1.6388/1.6474
Sup: 1.6254/1.6220/1.6185

We appear to be developing a broadening pattern from the daily charts though we are faced with a strong support at the breakout point 1.6220 given the 34D and 55D EMA lines around the area. Daily indicators see a bearish stochastic with macd poised at a bear cross. Intraday charts we see a confluence of bears from the 4H and hourly macd and stochastic. Given the bearish bias among different time frames we prefer taking the sell side of the market though proximity to a key support at 1.6220 suggest we are better off looking for a rejection from 1.6307.


AUDUSD

Res: 1.0789/1.0841/1.0909
Sup: 1.0695/1.0657/1.0610

Aussy turned out the weakest of the majors yesterday as the RBA failed to signal any near term hike alowng with fears of US slowdown. Note we have just seen poor data with Retail Sales down -0.1% month-on-month and Trade Balance short of consensus at 2.05 billion. Technically we have a close under a strong support from before 1.0789 while daily indicators are dropping. Intraday we have a confluence of bears in both 4H and hourly picture as stochastic in both time frames remain oversold. Given all the negative issues we expect Aussy to continue dropping, look for a close under 1.0695 to spark a further down leg to 1.0607, a strong support level


AUDJPY

Res: 83.15/83.53/83.81
Sup: 82.12/81.41/80.26

After congesting for the last four months we finally have an AUDJPY close below the congestion floor of 83.81. Daily indicators show both stochastic and macd bearish along with EMA lines beginning to drop. Note also have a stronger Yen across the board contributing to AUDJPY’s decline. As with AUDUSD we have a confluence of bears in macd and stochastic for both the 4H and hourly pictures. We appear to have both fundies and charts telling us one thing, on the former we have weakness in the US and Australian data itself supporting the notion of a sell-off. Consider shorts from just under 83.00 with tight stops at 83.25 for 82.12 possibly lower.


NZDUSD

Res: 0.8642/0.8678/0.8708
Sup: 0.8585/0.8562/0.8526

Planned austerity measures by the US government is beginning to be felt in the commodity markets with Kiwi seeing a huge sell-off along with the Aussy yesterday. At the close we barely managed to stay above a key support at 0.8619 in NZDUSD with prices at the moment in the process of taking it out. Indicators see a confluence of bears with macd’s just crossing lower while stochastic heading quickly for oversold levels. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of bears while hourly charts are mixed as stochastic come’s out of oversold territory. Consider shorts from just under 0.8642 for an eventual sell-off to 0.8526.
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  #48  
Old 04-08-2011, 02:13 PM
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Daily Forecast 4/8/2011


By Mark De La Paz


After yesterday’s comments of intervening for ‘maximum’ effect Japanese authorities have started their opening salvo for weakening the currency with Finance Minister Noda confirming an intervention in an emegrence press conference minutes after Yen pairs spiked. At the moment we have taken a pause and are waiting for the BoJ to comment on the move even as the monetart policy board begins a two day meeting. Note if Japanese authorities were serious in attaininng ‘maximum’ effect for their intervention we should be looking at the 80.00 handle as a key object otherwise failure to reach the level over the next few days may be taken as a sign of their ineffectiveness.

AUDUSD

Res: 1.0733/1.0789/1.0841
Sup: 1.0680/1.0653/1.0607

After the New York session turn-around we once again have AUDUSD dropping as we continue to view the commodity currencies as a sell on rallies. For Australia we have been seeing weaker economic numbers while the RBA is now more neutral in its policy stance. From indicators we have an oversold stochastic while macd is dropping. Intraday we are seeing similarly bearish setups with the 4H stochastic getting a new bear cross as macd’s drop while hourly charts see stochastic oversold and macd with a new bear cross. Consider shorts from just under 1.0733 or on a close below 1.0680.

EURJPY

Res: 112.24/112.77/113.52
Sup: 111.38/110.61/109.81

At the close EURJPY saw a piercing pattern from the daily charts while our current intervention driven spike has seen macd generate a bullish cross while stochastic is pushing higher. Note we are now back inside the daily EMA lines. Intraday our spike has seen hourly and 4H indicators also head higher with stochastic pushing further into overbought levels in both time frames. For now we are looking for a push to strong resistances at the 113.52 region.

GBPUSD

Res: 1.6439/1.6474/1.6513
Sup: 1.6388/1.6330/1.6261

Our broadening pattern in daily charts remain in effect as we look for a bearish reversal in the big picture. Indicators however are bullish overall with macd rising and stochastic seeing a new bullish cross this as we bounced off bullish EMA lines. In the 4H charts we have an overbought stochastic and bullish macd, hourly indicators see stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is poised for a bear cross. For now we prefer taking the sell-side of GBPUSD from just under 1.6439 with tight stops at 1.6450. We continue to look forward for a trigger of the broadening pattern.

EURUSD

Res: 1.4384(90)/1.4455/1.4496
Sup: 1.4340/1.4282/1.4220

Attempts at a sharp pullback in EURUSD failed following the close of European markets as rumors on a possible QE3 program takes root. At the close we found EURUSD just under a bear channel resistance lines. Daily indicators now see macd’s heading with stochastic also crossing higher. Intraday we see a confluence of buys from the 4H indicators with candles suggesting momentum for the upside is building. Hourly charts are mixed with macd rising and stochastic seeing a new bear cross. Given proximity to a strong resistance area at 1.4384(90) and a rally mainly driven by rumors we prefer looking for a rejection from 1.4384(90) with tight stops at 1.4410. Alternative entry will be a close under 1.4340 for a sell-off to 1.4287.
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Old 05-08-2011, 02:55 PM
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Daily Forecast 5/8/2011

By Mark De La Paz

After hitting the psychological 80 mark in yesterday’s intervention the Japanese Yen has now strengthened back to the mid-78 region against the dollar as equity markets saw a sharp sell-off in the US. With close to 5% losses in US stock indices yesterday we are currently seeing a sell-off in Asian bourses as panic hits global markets. For now the biggest losers remain to be the commodity currencies as changes in policy bias exacerbate the weakness coming off concerns on global growth. On the intervention the Japan’s Ministry of Finance refuses to say whether they see the effort as successful viewing it ‘too early call’ though a 50 billion dollar tab with inverted hammers in AUDJPY and EURJPY daily charts to us looks disappointing.


USDJPY

Res: 79.33/80.00/80.37
Sup: 78.67/78.25/77.71

After a 4 trillion Yen bill in yesterday’s intervention we find USDJPY retreating giving up a quarter of its gains at the close and easing further as Asian equities follow the US sell-off. With yesterdays rally we have daily indicators with a confluence of buys though the slope of your stochastic actually suggests that we may be crossing lower. In intraday charts we have 4H stochastic already coming off overbought levels with macd topping off. From hourly charts we now have a confluence of bears. With equity markets continuing to sell-off and given prospects of a poor NFP data in the US later look for Yen to strengthen. Consider shorts on a close under 78.67. Given the ’1990?s’ style intervention that the Japanese are adopting use tight stops on any Yen trade.


EURUSD

Res: 1.4138/1.4175/1.4220
Sup: 1.4054/1.4000(16)/1.3962

Euro Thursday turned out among the biggest losers in a broadly risk averse market as ECB Pres. Trichet confirmed an expansion in the banks purchases of government debt and growing concern over the banking systems vulnerability to Eurozone problems. In the daily charts we have indicators pointing lower with the break of previous strong supports suggesting we look for further losses. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals with 4H macd and stochastic remaining bearish while hourly stochastic come off oversold levels and macd bottoms out. With Asian markets continuing to sell-off as panic grips global markets we prefer taking the sell side of the market. Consider shorts from just under 1.4138 for a sell-off to the key 1.4000(16) region.


GBPUSD

Res: 1.6261/1.6308/1.6348
Sup: 1.6226/1.6185/1.6123(27)

We have GBPUSD near the breaking point of its daily broadening pattern though immediate support is strong with EMA lines at 1.6226. From the indicators we have macd just crossing lower and stochastic also pointing down. In intraday charts we are seeing a mixed picture, from the hourly level as stochastic come’s off oversold territory though macd is technically bearish. In 4H charts we simply have a confluence of bears. Given the overall bearish environment look for a close beneath 1.6226 to trigger a further sell-off to 1.6123(27).


AUDUSD

Res: 1.0502/1.0547/1.0607
Sup: 1.0424(38)/1.0384/1.0326

Given the huge sell-off in US markets we saw Aussy extending it losses for one of its worst trading days hitting our next key support area at 1.0424(38). With the threat of a recession in the US along with today’s NFP numbers we expect to continue seeing bearish pressure. Note we will be seeing the RBA’s latest Monetary Policy Statement at 0130GMT and expect to confirm the change in the RBA’s hawkish stance to neutral. From a technical we have a bearish stance across the different time frames, daily, 4H and hourly level with stochastic oversold in all time frames and macd’s heading lower. For now we are seeing a bounce off our strong support 1.0424(38) we prefer looking for a retest of said price, consider sells from just under 1.0502.


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Old 08-08-2011, 02:09 PM
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Daily Forecast 8/8/2011

By Mark De La Paz


Finally after all the warnings S&P decided to cut the US credit rating after the bell Friday with a negative outlook for possibly a further cut in the next two years citing the ‘political gridlock’ in Washington as its main reason. The weekend has been busy with comments and finger pointing and accusation while markets in Asia has seen a poor open because of the move. Still with comments from other develop countries and creditor nations suggesting they will continue to buy US treasuries we expect the current dollar sell-off to be limited, after all there is little difference between AAA and AA+. The move however should raise the cost of doing business in the US, strangely this would mean commodity currencies will actually be more at risk of a negative correction as exports will likekly ease.


NZDUSD

Res: 0.8445/0.8527/0.8596
Sup: 0.8342/0.8274/0.8190

We have been seeing Kiwi in a retreat since posting historical highs at 0.8842 last Monday. The US credit rating downgrade is just like to fuel further concerns off slower global growth making commodity currencies more vulnerable. Among indicators we have mixed signals from the daily picture, stochastic pushing up while macd is dropping. In intraday charts hourly indicators see a bullish bias with macd’s above the signal line though flat and stochastic just crossing higher. From the 4H picture signals are mixed with macd crossing higher and stochastic heading down. Consider shorts from just under 0.8445 for a push to the previous weeks lows at 0.8274.


AUDUSD

Res: 1.0468/1.0527/1.0567
Sup: 1.0368/1.0292/1.0201

After Friday’s high wave doji we have AUDUSD continuing to drop at the open in response to the US credit rating downgrade by S&P. Looking at indicators we have daily stochastic oversold and macd’s heading lower, note daily EMA lines are forming dead crosses. In intraday charts we have 4H indicators looking bearish with macd’s below the signal line and stochastic crossing lower. Hourly indicators see stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd’s flat. Conisder using sell-stops from just under 1.0368, a strong support for 1.0292 possibly 1.0201 the next strong support. Alternative entry will be shorts from just under 1.0527. Note the US credit downgrade opens the possibility of rising cost of doing business and a recession, poor fundies for any commodity currency.


GBPUSD

Res: 1.6438/1.6474/1.6511
Sup: 1.6396/1.6354/1.6310

Along with most of the dollar pairs we have Cable seeing an upside gap at the open, in response to the US credit rating downgrade. Note with the push for new highs we will be invalidating the broadening top in the daily charts, daily indicators now see a confluence of buys. We have already seen a pullback from the opening highs though indicators remain bullish the 4H stochastic overbought and macd rising. In hourly charts we are seeing mixed signals with stochastic easing off overbought levels and macd still rising. From the candles we are seeing spinning tops to define an end to the pullback. Consider buys on a break of 1.6438 for a retest of the highs at 1.6474, alternative entry is just above the 1.6396 support.


EURUSD

Res: 1.4367/1.4426/1.4470
Sup: 1.4282(93)/1.4239/1.4196

We have already covered the huge upside gap from the open, with the bigger creditors of the US expressing confidence on US treasuries. For now however given an element of risk we do not see people willingly buying the dollar tho wholesale sell-off is unlikely. Among daily indicators we have macd’s poised on a bullish cross while stochastic is rising. Intraday we are seeing mixed signals in both 4H and hourly levels as stochastic drops and macd rises for both time frames. given the strength of the immediate support we prefer a buy on dips consider limits at 1.4300 with stops at 1.7275 for a retest of the earlier highs.


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