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  #971  
Old 14-10-2017, 01:09 AM
GDM_FX GDM_FX is offline
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION EYED FOR NEXT MOVE. POSSIBLE RATE HIKE IMPLICATIONS


EUR/USD


Forex News: After reaching the resistance at 1.1875, the pair bounced lower, due to the technical reasons outlined yesterday but also due to upbeat US Dollar sentiment triggered by positive economic data.


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Technical Outlook

The overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index combined with the resistance level at 1.1875 generated a bounce lower, which is likely to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, if price returns above 1.1840, we will most likely see another test of 1.1875 but we donít expect major advances north until a deeper retracement occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have two very important releases scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT: the U.S. Consumer Price Index (expected change 0.6%) and the U.S. Retail Sales (expected change 1.7%). The former is the main gauge of inflation and is especially important now because some Fed officials see inflation as too low and this could potentially affect their decision to hike later this year.

Sales made at retail levels represent the major part of consumer spending and in turn, a big part of overall economic activity, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the currency.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened during yesterdayís session on concerns that Brexit negotiations are not going as smooth as they should and this combined with positive U.S. data triggered a drop below support.


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Technical Outlook

The pair broke 1.3160 and now it looks like itís testing the level from below. If price remains below 1.3160 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect to see a move into 1.3100. The oscillators are starting to gain downside momentum and the Pound is affected by Brexit negotiations, so the bias is negative but a lot will depend on the U.S. data released throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is light today, without any major releases, so the technical aspect and the U.S. data will be the main price drivers.
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  #972  
Old 16-10-2017, 08:47 PM
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION DISAPPOINTS, US DOLLAR STILL RESILIENT


EUR/USD


Fores News: The pair spiked higher Friday when the U.S. Consumer Price Index showed a value below expectations. However, most of the US Dollar losses were soon erased and the pair finished the week below resistance.


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Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias is still bullish but it must be noted that recently the resistance at 1.1875 was touched twice and each time price dropped. This shows that bearish pressure is increasing and the bulls lack the necessary strength to take price higher, at least for the time being. If resistance is not broken early in the session, we expect a drop through the 50 EMA and into 1.1775.

Fundamental Outlook

The dayís only notable release is the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is a survey of about 200 manufacturers from the New York state. The respondents are asked to rate the level of business conditions and the survey acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health. The time of release is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected reading is 20.3 but the survey has a limited impact.


GBP/USD

The pair showed choppy price action Friday and ended the session close to where it started it. The US Dollar weakened at the time of the CPI release but erased most of the losses soon after.


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Technical Outlook

Friday the bulls attempted to take price higher but failed and this resulted in a candle with a long upper wick, which is a sign of rejection, so we expect a move lower for today. However, the pair will most likely remain between the resistance at 1.3350 and the support at 1.3250 for the entire trading session or at least for a big part of it.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic calendar today, so the technical aspect will decide the pairís direction. The lack of economic data releases may also trigger a slow day.
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  #973  
Old 17-10-2017, 10:32 PM
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FOREX NEWS: FULL DAY FOR THE POUND: INFLATION DATA AND BOE GOVERNORíS TESTIMONY


EUR/USD


Yesterday the pair moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and approached the support at 1.1775 but overall the session was pretty slow. The Empire State Manufacturing Index posted a value of 30.2, higher than the expected 20.3 and this helped the US Dollar to some extent.


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Technical Outlook

Although the pair descended below the 50 EMA, it lacks momentum and seems like neither side is in control. However, if the support at 1.1775 is not broken soon, this will show that the balance is tilting towards the bulls and 1.1840 will become the first target. Until an important level is broken, our view is mostly neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today at 9:00 am GMT and will show the opinions of about 300 German professional analysts and investors regarding a 6-month economic outlook for the German economy. Usually a higher number than the expected 20.3 is beneficial for the Euro but the impact is often low if the actual number matches the forecast.


GBP/USD

The pair remained in a tight range for most of yesterdayís trading session mostly due to the lack of economic data releases for the Pound.


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Technical Outlook

Although yesterday the pair moved sideways for the most part of the session, in the afternoon we saw a drop into 1.3250 and into the 50 EMA, followed by a bounce higher. This shows that 1.3250 is still a good support level, thus a break will show increased bearish pressure. As long as the pair is trading between 1.3250 and 1.3350, our bias is neutral but a lot will depend on the British economic data.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is an important day for the Pound, due to the release of the British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and is closely watched by the BOE when deciding interest rate changes. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected reading is 3.0% (previously 2.9%). Higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound because high inflation eventually leads to a rate hike.

At 10:15 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will testify in London, before the Treasury Select Committee. This testimony may have a strong impact on the Pound, so we recommend caution until volatility settles down.
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  #974  
Old Yesterday, 03:29 PM
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR REGAINS ITS SWAGGER. SUPPORT BROKEN AND LOWER PRICES TO FOLLOW


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro weakened yesterday after a disappointing German ZEW survey and this allowed the pair to break support and to move south for almost the entire trading session.


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Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.1775 so the short term outlook is bearish, making us anticipate a move closer to 1.1700. However, it must be noted that the last few candles are showing long wicks in their lower part and the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold, which are signs of rejection. This means that the pair will probably retrace higher before reaching 1.1700 but as long as it remains below the 50 EMA, the bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:10 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the ECB Conference held in Frankfurt. The impact on the currency will depend on his attitude and matters discussed but cannot be anticipated beforehand. However, volatility is likely to surge and caution is always advised when heads of central banks speak publicly.

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Building Permits will be released, showing how many construction permits for residential buildings were released during the previous month. This is a gauge of future construction activity and usually the greenback is positively affected by a number above forecast, which for today is 1.25 Million (annualized number).


GBP/USD

The Pound pushed slightly higher at the time of the British CPI release (3.0% change, as anticipated) but it came under heavy selling pressure and dropped for more than 100 pips, breaking the key handle at 1.3250.


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Technical Outlook

The pair broke with ease the confluence zone created by 1.3250 and the 50 period EMA, showing increased bearish pressure. However, at the time of writing, the drop is showing rejection at 1.3160 so a move up cannot be ruled out. That being said, our bias remains bearish as long as price is trading below the 50 EMA and below 1.3250, so we expect a drop to 1.3100 or even lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event for the Pound today will be the release of the Average Earnings Index, which shows changes in the price that employers pay for labour. Higher wages lead to increased consumer spending and this in turn strengthens the Pound, so the indicator has a hefty impact. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected change is 2.1%.
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