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  #561  
Old 23-02-2018, 11:05 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for February 23, 2018

The US dollar index pulled back yesterday towards the broken resistance of 89.60 and is now bouncing again. The trend has changed to bullish in the short term. The US dollar index has many chances of finishing the entire decline from 103.60.


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Red line - resistance trend line

The US dollar index is trading above both the tenkan- and the kijun-sen. The price is also above the red downward sloping trend line from 94. The US dollar index will at least make a corrective bounce of the decline from 95.15. The most probable target is at 92.50.


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The daily trend remains bearish. The price has moved above the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. As long as the price is above the 89.45-89.20 support area by these two indicators, I would expect the price to move towards the daily Kumo (cloud) resistance at 91. The horizontal resistance of a the previous high is at 90.60. So it will be a bullish sign if we break above 90.60.
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  #562  
Old 23-02-2018, 11:07 PM
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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for February 23, 2018

The gold price bounced yesterday towards the first important resistance at $1,334 but there are signs of rejection. The price is in a bearish short-term trend as we are now again below the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud.


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The gold price moved above the 4-hour tenkan-sen briefly but got rejected at the lower cloud boundary. The price is now again below the tenkan-sen. The trend is clearly bearish in the short term. Support is at the recent low of $1,320. Resistance is at $1,334 and next at $1,335.60. A break above $1,335.60 will open the way for a move towards the upper cloud boundary at $1,346.


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Magenta line - long-term resistance

On a daily basis, the gold price has made a double top at $1,355. The price is again below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. The price is heading towards the cloud support at $1,300. Resistance is at $1,340. So far the price has made a higher low relative to the February low on the 8th. As long as the price is above the low from the 8th, a break higher would be very bullish.
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  #563  
Old 23-02-2018, 11:38 PM
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Gold Little Changed Ahead Of Fed Speak


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Gold futures were flat Friday morning ahead of a slew of Federal Reserve speakers. They are expected to shed light on whether the Fed will raise interest rates three times in 2018. Gold was down 70 cents at $1332 an ounce, having dropped sharply mid-week due to a stronger U.S. dollar before stabilizing.

Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren and New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will participate in a discussion on the report "A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed's Balance Sheet" at the 2018 U.S.

Monetary Policy Forum Annual Conference held by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business,in New York at 10.15 am ET. At 1.30 pm ET, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will participate in the review. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will speak on the "Outlook on the Economy and the Implications for Monetary Policy" in Los Angeles, with audience and media Q&A at 3.40 pm ET.
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  #564  
Old 08-03-2018, 03:39 PM
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Trading Plan for US Dollar Index for March 08, 2018


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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index 4H chart setups has been presented here in continuation to what we discussed last week. It is now becoming quite evident now that the index might have formed a meaningful bottom already around 88.25 levels around mid February 2018. There is enough proof to suggest the same; the subsequent rally has pushed above the first resistance at 90.50/60 levels and also breaking above the trendline resistance.Moreover, the entire pattern unfolding now, can be viewed as an inverted Head and Shoulder in the making. If the above pattern holds to be true, then prices should ideally remain above 88.25/30 levels moving ahead. At this point, the US Dollar Index is seen to be finding support around fibonacci 0.50 support of the entire rally between 88.25 and 90.90 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please remain long and also look to add further on dips. Risk remain below 88.25 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for ECB rate decision today at 0745 AM EST.
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  #565  
Old 08-03-2018, 03:48 PM
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Gold was trapped

The news about the resignation of the chief economic adviser to the president Gary Cohn allowed gold to mark its best daily level since Valentine's Day. If an ardent opponent of protectionism, an ex-candidate for the presidency of the Fed, withdraws from his post, a potential global trade war is unlikely to be avoided. And in it, all weapons will look good. Including - large-scale selling of US Treasury bonds by the main holders in the face of China and Japan. I believe other countries will do the same. Their desire to get rid of the power of the dollar will force them to shift to gold. Thus, trade wars are potentially capable of providing the precious metal with invaluable support.

Until March, investors' demand for ETF products was characterized by mixed dynamics. The fall in the XAU/USD and the increase in gold volatility contributed to an outflow of 5.1 tonnes in February. The biggest losses were suffered by European (-7.3 tons) and North American stock-exchange specialized funds (-5.1 tons), while Asians, on the contrary, replenished their reserves (+7.9 tons). As a result, according to the latest figure, it has increased by 10% since the beginning of the year.

Monthly dynamics of demand for ETF products


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Annual dynamics of demand for ETF products


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In my opinion, the value of the investment demand for precious metals was influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar. The fastest growth in the weekly wage in January over the past few years has strengthened the risks of overclocking inflation and the aggressive monetary tightening of the Fed. Moreover, the new head of the Federal Reserve was optimistic about the US economy and the way of betting on federal funds. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, indicated four hikes in 2018 - a gradual normalization of monetary policy. As a result, the futures market increased the chances of such an outcome to 34%, and gold plunged into a wave of selling. Everyone remembers perfectly how uncomfortable it felt at the eve of the historic FOMC meetings in 2017.

Nevertheless, the growing likelihood of the implementation of the policy of anti-globalization, Donald Trump, significantly tempered investors' appetite for risk. If the stock indexes behaved rather restrained in response to the high-sounding statements of the US president on tariffs on the import of steel and aluminum, the resignation of Gary Cohn convinced that the matter should be taken very seriously.

In the medium term, gold can be trapped in consolidation: on the one hand, news about the trade war will provide support to the bulls on the XAU/USD; on the other hand, the return of the divergence idea in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the central banks-peers can become a saving straw for the US dollar. In my opinion, in the second and third quarters, against the background of the return of the normalization theme, its strength will run out, so the price will drop to the lower border of the trading range of $1300-1360 per ounce, which makes sense to use for purchases.

Technically, if the bulls manage to return gold quotes to the limits of the upward medium-term trading channel, then the risks of implementing the target values by 113% and by 127.2% according to the Shark and AB = CD patterns will increase.

Gold, daily chart

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  #566  
Old 08-03-2018, 04:07 PM
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Daily analysis of USDX for March 08, 2018

USDX is hovering around the support zone of 89.36 at which the bulls could gather momentum in order to push higher towards the resistance zone of 90.63. If a breakout happens over there, the greenback could gain ground to test the resistance level of 91.75, while a pullback should take it to test the 87.88 level.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 90.63 / 91.75

H1 chart's support levels: 89.36 / 87.88

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 89.36, take profit is at 87.88 and stop loss is at 90.81.
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  #567  
Old 08-03-2018, 04:23 PM
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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for March 8, 2018

The Dollar index remains under pressure. Price has broken below the 4-hour Kumo and has turned short-term trend from neutral to bearish. Price continues to make lower lows and lower highs while trading below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen.


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Next important short-term support is at 89.25 where we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. As long as price is below the Kumo trend will be bearish. For trend to change to bullish in the 4hour chart we will need to see a break above 90.40. Price could bounce from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and move higher to test the cloud from below.


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On a weekly basis price got rejected last week by the tenkan-sen (Red line indicator) and remains below it. Trend is clearly bearish in the weekly chart and there is no sign of a bounce or reversal as long as price closes below the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. A break above the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) will open the way for a bounce at least towards the Kumo.
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  #568  
Old 08-03-2018, 04:25 PM
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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for March 8, 2018

Gold price is making higher highs and higher lows in the 4-hour chart and is breaking above the Kumo. Trend is turning bullish. Medium-term trend is neutral as price remains inside the Daily Kumo and still inside the $1,350-$1,310 trading range.


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Price is above the 4-hour Kumo. Support is at $1,322-16. Resistance is at $1,340. So far it looks like bulls remain in control as the critical support of $1,300 has been held and price has now started again to make higher highs and higher lows.


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Magenta line -long-term resistance

Red line - short-term support

Gold price is trading inside the Kumo in the Daily chart. The low at $1,302 so far is the most important support level and as long as price is above it, I will be expecting the short-term uptrend to continue and eventually break above the double top for new highs. We also find support at $1,320. Break below it and we will test $1,300. Resistance is at $1,340. Break it and most probably we break the double top.
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  #569  
Old 09-03-2018, 11:00 AM
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Daily analysis of Gold for March 08, 2018


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Overview

Gold price begins today's trading with a slight bullish bias after the decline that we witnessed yesterday. The upward bias has been spurred by the positive signal provided now by stochastic. The price is waiting to rally to 1,335.40 followed by 1,342.00 levels to confirm a further bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, so our next main target is located at 1,365.97. Therefore, we still suggest the bullish trend in the short term unless we witness a clear break and the price holds below 1,316.48. The expected trading range for today is between 1,315.00 support and 1,342.00 resistance.
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  #570  
Old 09-03-2018, 02:39 PM
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Daily analysis of USDX for March 09, 2018

The US dollar index stays below the 200 SMA and looks forward to test fresh lows below the support level of 89.36. If a breakout happens below there, the greenback could be under pressure to test the 87.88 level. To the upside, a rebound should put USDX in focus to touch the resistance zone of 90.63. MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory, favoring to a sideways range.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 90.63 / 91.75

H1 chart's support levels: 89.36 / 87.88

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 89.36, take profit lies at 87.88 and stop loss is at 90.81.
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