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  #11  
Old 21-03-2013, 03:33 PM
katetrades katetrades is offline
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Default USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian Retail Sales Report (March 21, 2013)

The falling trend line on USD/CADís 1-hour time frame is holding for now but the pair is consolidating into what appears to be a symmetrical triangle. Traders are awaiting the results of the Canadian retail sales report, which is set for release during todayís New York session.


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Headline retail sales are projected to rebound by 0.6% from the 2.1% slide seen last December. Meanwhile, core retail sales are estimated to recover by 0.4% for January from the 0.9% drop recorded in December.

Stronger than expected figures could result in a Loonie rally, which might push USD/CAD to break below the triangle and head for the recent lows near 1.0200. On the other hand, weaker than expected retail sales figures could trigger a sharp Loonie selloff, which could force USD/CAD to break above consolidation and the trend line.

Bear in mind that USD/CAD is also finding support at an established area of interest near the 1.0250 minor psychological level. A break below this mark could confirm that the downtrend is still intact but another strong bounce could signal a reversal.

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  #12  
Old 22-03-2013, 03:37 PM
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Default USD/JPY Retracement In the Works? (March 22, 2013)

USD/JPYís rally seems to be losing steam as the pair canít seem to make a break above the 97.00 major psychological resistance. Right now, USD/JPY is pulling back to the 95.00 area and looks ready to test the rising trend line on the 4-hour time frame.


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Note that the trend line is in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 94.00. This is also the former resistance level, which might act as support from now on.

Stochastic isnít in the oversold region though, which suggests that the pair could still dip lower, possibly until the 93.50 minor psychological support. If youíre planning to buy this pair, make sure you set your stop below that level.

There are no major reports due from both Japan and the U.S. today, which means that there isnít any catalyst for a strong breakdown. The trend could remain intact, at least until the end of this trading week.

Monetary policies of the BOJ and the Fed seem to be on somewhat opposite poles for the meantime as the BOJ is favoring aggressive easing measures while the Fed has expressed its intention to withdraw asset purchases once inflation and employment pick up.

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  #13  
Old 25-03-2013, 02:20 PM
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Default EURUSD: Potential Gap Fill (March 25, 2013)

Thereís a falling trend line connecting the highs on EUR/USDís 1-hour time frame and a test might be in the works for today. In addition, the gap from the previous weekend might get filled as it is close to the 1.3050 minor psychological resistance.


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Lawmakers in Cyprus are hopeful that a bailout deal will be reached within the week even though Russia declined their request for additional liquidity. However, the lack of a concrete proposal could put EUR/USD back in selloff mode.

Stochastic is almost in the overbought territory, suggesting that euro bulls are about to run out of steam. On top of that, a potential bearish divergence is forming as the pair made lower highs while stochastic is making higher highs.

Shorting at 1.3050 with a stop above 1.3100 and a target at the previous lows near 1.2850 could yield at least a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio.

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  #14  
Old 26-03-2013, 03:40 PM
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Default GBP/USD Testing Former Support (March 26, 2013)

GBP/USDís recent rallies might be cut short this week as the pair is currently testing the former support zone around 1.5200 to 1.5250. This level has been broken in February when the BOE reiterated their willingness to implement further easing at the expense of stronger inflationary pressures.

However, the U.K. economy has enjoyed some good news at the start of March as it saw some improvements in economic data and received a less dovish outlook from the BOE. In addition to the short squeeze, these factors were enough to push the pair right back up from its previous lows around 1.4850 back to the 1.5200 area.


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There are no major reports due from the U.K. this week, which might mean that thereís no catalyst for an upside breakout. The support-turned-resistance level could hold for now as traders book profits ahead of the shortened trading week. Take note also that itís the end of the month and the quarter, which could lead to a profit-taking scenario.

Shorting around 1.5200 with a stop above 1.5250 and a target at 1.5000 would yield a pretty good reward-to-risk ratio for a trade until the middle of the week.

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  #15  
Old 28-03-2013, 08:11 PM
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Default USD/CAD: Trading the Monthly GDP Report (March 28, 2013)

USD/CAD: Trading the Monthly GDP Report (March 28, 2013)

USD/CAD is currently consolidating above the 1.0150 minor psychological support level as traders await the release of the monthly GDP reading for January. The figure is expected to rebound by 0.1% from the -0.2% reading seen last December.


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A stronger than expected reading could trigger a downside breakout to the next support level around 1.0115 or possibly until the 1.0100 major psychological level, depending on how positive the actual reading is.

On the other hand, a weaker than expected figure could trigger an upside breakout by USD/CAD. This could push the pair back to the 1.0200 major psychological level, which has acted as support in the past.

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  #16  
Old 29-03-2013, 09:12 PM
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Default GBP/USD: Will 1.5200 Hold Again? (March 29, 2013)

The pair is once more testing the 1.5200 major psychological resistance for today. The level has held earlier this week as price dipped back to the 1.5100 major psychological support afterwards.

Thereís a bearish divergence that formed on the hourly time frame as the price made lower highs while the oscillator drew higher highs. Stochastic is already moving down from the overbought region, suggesting that pound bears have already found momentum to push the pair down.


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The pair could once more find support at the 1.5100 area, which has been holding for the past couple of weeks. Stronger profit-taking moves could push the pair even lower to the 1.5000 mark.

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  #17  
Old 01-04-2013, 08:22 PM
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Default USD/JPY: Resistance Turned Support at 94.00 (April 1, 2013)

USD/JPY sold off for the past couple of weeks and is now testing the former resistance at the 94.00 major psychological level. The pair seems to be finding support around this area, which is also in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the 4-hour time frame.


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Take note that the BOJ is set to make its interest rate decision later this week but traders could start pricing their expectations way ahead of the actual event. In his previous speech, Kuroda noted that the central bank is ready to implement the necessary quantitative and qualitative measures, the details of which havenít been disclosed yet. Kuroda mightíve simply been waiting for BOJ policymakers to convene first before announcing concrete steps, but additional asset purchases are eyed.

The yen could sell off as the event draws nearer and nearer. In the meantime, the U.S. is set to print its ISM manufacturing PMI during todayís U.S. session. An improvement over the previous monthís figure could boost the U.S. dollar against the yen.

Stochastic is making its way out of the oversold region, which suggests that dollar bulls currently have the upper hand. If you plan to buy this pair, make sure you set your stop below the 61.8% Fib level.


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  #18  
Old 02-04-2013, 07:34 PM
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Default EUR/USD: Retest of Former Support (April 2, 2013)

Thanks to its recent rallies for the first few trading sessions this week, EUR/USD was able to pull up to the former support level around the 1.2850 minor psychological handle. This is closely in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-hour time frame.

In addition, stochastic appears ready to drop down form the overbought region, suggesting that euro bears are about to have the upper hand soon. If thatís the case, EUR/USD could head back south until its previous lows around 1.2775.


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There are a few minor market catalysts on tap from the euro zone for today. The German preliminary CPI, Spanish employment data, and Italian manufacturing PMI are all on tap and these could provide some volatility for euro pairs. Weaker than expected figure from these top economies in the region could weigh on the euro.

Shorting at the 1.2850 area and aiming for 1.2775 with a 25-pip stop could be a 3:1 trade. Aiming lower could yield a better reward-to-risk ratio but this might require you to hold on to the trade until after the U.S. session. There are no top-tier reports on tap from the U.S. today, which suggests quiet trading during the New York market hours.

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  #19  
Old 03-04-2013, 05:22 PM
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Default GBP/USD: Trading the Construction PMI Release (April 3, 2013)

The recently released manufacturing PMI for the United Kingdom sparked a massive selloff for the pound as the actual figure missed expectations. Take note that the BOE is currently watching business surveys very closely before they make their interest rate decision.

For today, the UK still has the construction PMI on tap and another disappointment could trigger another round of pound selling. The figure is expected to improve from 46.8 to 47.7, still indicating a contraction in the industry.


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On the shorter-term time frames, GBP/USD shows tight consolidation around the 1.5100 handle as traders await the release of todayís set of data. A short below the Asian box around 1.5075 and aiming for the 1.5000 handle will be a good day trade if the construction PMI misses expectations.

On the other hand, going long above 1.5100 if the actual report comes in strong could also be a good day trade if price rallies back to 1.5150 or 1.5200 afterwards.

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  #20  
Old 04-04-2013, 02:41 PM
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After making a strong selloff from the 1.5250 minor psychological resistance and previous week highs, GBP/USD found support around the 1.5100 major psychological level. The pair appears to be retracing, thanks to the recent disappointments in U.S. economic data.

The pair seems to be encountering short-term resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is close to the 1.5150 minor psychological mark. However, stochastic is in moving out of the oversold region, suggesting a potential move up.


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Take note though that the BOE is scheduled to make its interest rate decision during todayís London session and possibly highlight the weaknesses in the British economy. If thatís the case or if they hint at further asset purchases later on, GBP/USD could stage another strong selloff, possibly below the previous lows.

Note that thereís a double top formation on the 1-hour time frame, which suggests a reversal of the recent uptrend. The neckline is located around 1.5100 and a strong break below this area would confirm the start of a downtrend. This could carry on until the previous lows near 1.4850.

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