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  #1121  
Old 12-02-2018, 12:04 PM
katetrades katetrades is offline
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Default EURAUD Triple Top (Feb 12, 2018)

A reversal may be brewing for EURAUD as the pair has formed a triple top formation on its 4-hour time frame and could be due for a break lower. Price is testing the neckline at the 1.5650 minor psychological mark and a move below this could send it down by at least 150 pips or the same height as the formation.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is still to the upside. This means that there's a chance the longer-term uptrend could still resume. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to signal weakening bullish momentum.

Stochastic is pulling up from oversold levels, though, so buying pressure could be in play. This could take price up for another test of the resistance around the 1.5750 minor psychological mark.

There are no major reports due from the euro zone or Australia today, which suggests that market sentiment or geopolitical updates could push this pair around. Preliminary GDP readings from the region's top economies are lined up mid-week, along with the euro zone flash GDP.

Analysts are expecting to see another 0.6% expansion for Q4 2017 and a stronger than expected read could be enough to bolster ECB tightening expectations. Keep in mind, however, that policymakers have been more mindful of downside inflationary pressures and euro strength these days.


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The Australian employment change for January could show a 15.2K increase in hiring, less than half as much as the previous month's 34.2K gain. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 5.5%.

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  #1122  
Old 13-02-2018, 08:39 PM
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Default USDCAD Double Bottom (Feb 13, 2018)

USDCAD could be in for a long-term reversal from its selloff as price has formed a double bottom on its daily time frame. The pair has yet to test the neckline around the 1.2950 minor psychological level, though.

A break higher could send price up by an additional 800 pips or roughly the same height as the chart formation. For now, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the selloff would continue. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to indicate weakening bearish momentum.

Stochastic is turning lower from the overbought zone to show that sellers could still take over. After all, the 100 SMA is holding as dynamic resistance and the 200 SMA could serve as a ceiling also.

The US dollar has been weaker against most of its peers in recent sessions as risk appetite is returning to the financial markets. Strangely enough, the Loonie was barely able to take advantage of the rallies and the pickup in crude oil prices stemming from a record OPEC compliance.

There are no major reports from both the US and Canada today, so sentiment could still be king. A continuation of the risk-on rallies could prove positive for the higher-yielding Loonie while a return in risk aversion could lead to more gains for this pair.


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Later on, the US will release its CPI and retail sales data. Headline inflation could rise by 0.3% versus the earlier 0.1% uptick while the core figure could post a 0.2% gain. Headline retail sales could see a 0.5% gain versus the earlier 0.4% increase.

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  #1123  
Old 14-02-2018, 02:50 PM
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Default EURAUD Range Resistance (Feb 14, 2018)

EURAUD has been trading sideways recently, finding support at the 1.5650 minor psychological level and resistance near 1.5800. Price just bounced off the top of the range and might be due for a test of support again soon.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA on the 1-hour time frame to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to reflect weakening bullish pressure. A downward crossover could bring more sellers back in.

Stochastic is also on the move down to show that sellers have the upper hand, but the oscillator is nearing oversold levels to signal that bearish pressure is weakening and that a bounce off support may take place soon.

There were no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday but the shared currency managed to hold on to most of its gains and go for more. As for Australia, the NAB business confidence index improved from 10 to 12 to reflect more optimism.

Today has German and Italian preliminary GDP figures due early in the London session before the region's flash GDP reading is printed. Analysts are expecting to see another 0.6% expansion, but a stronger than expected read could boost ECB tightening expectations.


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There are no reports due from Australia today as its next major report is the employment change for January due on Thursday's Asian session. Analysts are expecting to see a 15.3K increase in hiring for the month, lower than the earlier 34.7K gain, and no change in the 5.5% jobless rate.

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  #1124  
Old 15-02-2018, 03:28 PM
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Default GBPJPY Ascending Channel (Feb 15, 2018)

GBPJPY recently bounced off the top of its ascending channel and is now making its way to support. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high shows that this lines up with the 61.8% retracement level around the 146.00 major psychological mark.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, support is more likely to hold than to break. The 200 SMA is close to the 50% Fib and might hold as dynamic support as well.

Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions to show that selling pressure is exhausted. Turning higher could draw more buyers back in and lead to a bounce up to the channel resistance or swing high at 156.00.

UK CPI reports turned out stronger than expected this week, with the headline figure steady at 3.0% instead of dipping to the 2.9% consensus and the core figure rose from 2.5% to 2.7%.

Data from Japan was actually weaker than expected since GDP came in at 0.1% versus the 0.2% estimate and the 0.6% earlier expansion. However, the yen has been taking advantage of dollar weakness and enjoying most of the risk-off flows.


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UK retail sales data is due on Friday and a 0.5% rebound is eyed after the earlier 1.5% drop. However, weaker than expected reports would show that higher price levels are starting to weigh on consumer spending and potentially overall growth.

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  #1125  
Old 16-02-2018, 04:39 PM
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Default EURJPY Channel Breakdown (Feb 16, 2018)

EURJPY had been trading inside an ascending channel pattern and price has broken below support. This signals that a reversal from the uptrend is underway, although additional confirmation could still be needed from technical indicators.

The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA on the daily time frame, which means that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that the rally is more likely to resume than to reverse. However, price has also broken below the 100 SMA dynamic support to indicate a pickup in selling pressure.

Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions and looks ready to turn higher, which means that buyers might be ready to prop price up once more. This could lead to a pullback to the broken channel support before the selloff resumes.

The yen was one of the top performing currencies lately as the Japanese currency is taking advantage of dollar weakness. Data from Japan also turned out stronger than expected as the industrial production figure was upgraded from 2.7% to 2.9%.

There were no major reports out of the euro zone recently, although medium-tier figures have been mostly upbeat. ECB tightening expectations are in play but traders also seem wary of currency strength and its impact on inflation.


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There are no major reports due from Japan and the euro zone for the remainder of the trading week, and with Chinese markets closed for Lunar New Year festivities, market liquidity is expected to be thin. Profit-taking could be a factor as well.

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  #1126  
Old 19-02-2018, 11:01 AM
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Default USDJPY Downtrend Correction (February 19, 2018)

USDJPY recently broke below a major support zone, confirming that a downtrend is underway. Price appears to be finding support at current levels, though, so a pullback is also possible. Stochastic is on its way up to indicate that bears are taking a break.

Applying the Fib retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the trend line at 108.00 and a former support zone that could now hold as resistance. This also coincides with the 100 SMA dynamic resistance.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the selloff is more likely to continue than to reverse.

Dollar weakness has been in play for the most part of the previous week, and the momentum could carry on as more issues pop up for the Trump administration. The ongoing investigation into Russia's involvement in the US elections is raising more concerns while worries about a fiscal deficit remain.

US banks are closed in observance of President's Day today, which means that liquidity is low and volatility could tick higher. This could also give equities reason to pause from their rallies.


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Later in the week, the FOMC meeting minutes are up for release and any cautious remarks could mean another leg of losses for the US currency. There are no major reports due from Japan.

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  #1127  
Old 20-02-2018, 02:53 PM
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Default New Cable Downtrend? (February 20, 2018)

GBPUSD appears to be starting a new trend lower as price is creating a descending channel on its 4-hour time frame. Price is just testing the resistance, though, and might be due for a move back to sup-port.

However, the 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least re-sistance is to the upside. Then again, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to signal a po-tential crossover.

Stochastic is in the oversold region to show that sellers might be exhausted. Turning higher could draw buyers back in and lead to a move past the channel resistance.

The dollar managed to outpace its peers even as traders were out on a holiday for Monday. US markets are scheduled to reopen today and a return in risk-taking could mean weakness for the safe-haven US currency once more.

There are no reports due from the US today and none are due from the UK as well. This could leave market sentiment in control of price action for the rest of the day, although it's worth noting that Brexit concerns are starting make their way to the headlines once more.


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UK jobs data is up for release on Wednesday and a smaller increase in joblessness of 2.3K is eyed. The average earnings index could hold steady at 2.5% but an increase could prove bullish for the currency. FOMC minutes are due on Wednesday also, which might bring more volatility to the dollar.

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  #1128  
Old 20-02-2018, 02:57 PM
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Default Forex Major Currencies Outlook (February 20, 2018)

USD

The dollar was able to pocket a few gains even as US markets were closed for the President's Day holi-day. Markets will reopen today and another round of risk-taking could prompt weakness for the safe-haven currency. There are no major reports from the US today, so sentiment could be a main mover.

EUR

The euro was mostly weaker due to a lower than expected current account surplus. There were no other reports released from the region, leaving traders to price in expectations for the ECB minutes due later in the week. Today has German PPI and the ZEW economic sentiment figures lined up.

GBP

The pound also gave up ground to most of its peers when Brexit concerns resurfaced in the headlines. PM May's spokesperson said that ministers are setting plans for the post-Brexit EU deal, which remind-ed market watchers that a plan isn't actually set in stone yet. BOE Governor Carney's speech contained no surprises and the CBI industrial order expectations index is due next.

CHF

The franc slid lower to the yen and dollar but managed to hold its ground against the commodity cur-rencies. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the trade balance due. A larger surplus of 2.78 billion CHF is eyed compared to the earlier 2.63 billion CHF figure.

JPY

The yen gave back some of its previous gains as traders continued to book profits after last week's ral-lies. There were no reports out of Japan then and none are due today, which means that risk sentiment could be the prime mover of yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

New Zealand printed stronger than expected quarterly PPI figures, keeping bulls hopeful that the RBNZ could shift its policy stance sooner rather than later. Still, PPI readings were slightly weaker compared to the previous quarter. The RBA minutes were released and it revealed that the central bank was slightly more optimistic about the consumer sector. Canadian wholesale sales and New Zealand's GDT auction are lined up next.

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  #1129  
Old 21-02-2018, 02:29 PM
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Default EURAUD Double Top (February 21, 2018)

EURAUD looks ready for a selloff as price is forming a double top reversal pattern on its 4-hour time frame. The pair has yet to break below the neckline at the 1.5650 minor psychological mark before con-firming the downtrend.

The chart pattern is approximately 200 pips tall, so the resulting breakdown could be of the same height. However, the 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least re-sistance is still to the upside or that the uptrend could carry on.

Stochastic is also pulling up from oversold levels to show that buyers are getting back in the game. In that case, another test of the tops around 1.5800 could be underway and perhaps even a break higher.

Euro zone economic data turned out mostly stronger than expected, with sentiment indicators showing a smaller than expected dip in confidence. The German ZEW economic sentiment index fell from 20.4 to 17.8 versus the estimated drop to 16.0 while the region's index dipped from 31.8 to 29.3 versus the es-timated 28.4 figure.

Meanwhile, data from Australia was mixed but saw more upside surprises. Construction work done for the previous quarter sank 19.4% versus the estimated 9.8% drop while the MI leading index fell 0.2%. On the flip side, the wage price index grew by 0.6% versus the estimated 0.5% uptick.


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Up ahead, PMI readings from the manufacturing and services sectors of Germany and France are due. Small dips are eyed as well, which could bring the region's overall readings down.

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  #1130  
Old 23-02-2018, 03:48 PM
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Default EURUSD Reversal Pattern (Feb 23, 2018)

EURUSD could be in for a selloff as a double top pattern can be seen on its 4-hour time frame. Price has yet to break below the neckline at the 1.2200-1.2250 levels before confirming the potential downtrend. The chart pattern is approximately 300 pips tall so the resulting selloff could be of the same height.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside, but the gap is narrowing to signal that a downward crossover is due. In that case, bearish momentum could take over soon.

Stochastic is pulling up so price could follow suit. Reaching overbought levels and turning back down could draw more sellers in and sustain the drop.

Euro zone economic data turned out weaker than expected in the previous London session as the Ger-man IFO business climate index fell from 117.6 to 115.4. The ECB meeting minutes contained a few hawkish remarks but the central bank's hesitation to commit to a tightening plan has led to some euro weakness.

Meanwhile, the dollar lost ground to its peers as risk appetite appeared to return to the markets. Bond yields ticked lower while equities and commodities chalked up gains, leaving the safe-haven currency to decline.


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Up ahead, FOMC members Dudley, Williams, and Mester have testimonies scheduled so their monetary policy remarks could determine where the dollar might be headed next. Euro zone final CPI readings are also lined up.

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