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  #21  
Old 05-10-2011, 12:20 AM
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The Euro fell nearly 9-month low against U.S. dollar while the new discovery scared investors worried that Greece can not meet its fiscal deficit target of 7.5% this year, which had committed just two months ago with the agencies that manage the delivery of aid from the rescue plan.

It is no surprise as we knew, but it seems as if the market still had the hope that somehow, no one knows what the news would have been less bad.
The euro has reacted to the floor in any case though, as I say, the impression is that this was granted. In reality, not just the fact that they can not meet its objectives, the concern is uncertainty about how you can get out of this mess.

As I said the secretary general of the OECD this morning, "the original sin is to have linked the future of the euro to Greece." Nor should we exaggerate, but it is true that the relaxation in compliance with the terms of both access and retention in the euro area are spending their bill.

Finance ministers of the Eurozone are rethinking the private sector in the second Greek rescue package, if the package is reduced, the potential of a Greek default to rise dramatically.

The most important of the afternoon session will be industrial orders in the U.S. (expected: 0.0% Previous: 2.4%).


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  #22  
Old 07-10-2011, 11:56 PM
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The biggest news yesterday was the result of the highly anticipated matches of the BoE and the ECB, in which the central issue was the increase of the stimulus. For starters, the BoE announced a dramatic increase of 75 billion pounds in the purchase target assets (totaling 275 billion pounds), citing the same reason strong pressure from bank funding markets. As expected, interest rates in the UK were left unchanged at 0.50%. Following this measure, the ECB announced a new purchase of bonds and the provision of two categories of long-term refinancing in the coming months, in order to help the banking sector to handle the prevailing lack of confidence in financial markets. As for the meeting, there had been considerable debate about whether we would be considering a rate cut, but it clearly has not materialized.

Also, the jobless claims data in the U.S. have had a mixed character, since the figures were smaller headlines than expected but have been offset by upward revisions to data from the last week. The initial jobless claims reached the figure of 401,000, when the forecast was for 410,000, but the figure of last week, which had been 391,000, has been revised upwards by 395,000. Quite similar were the continuation applications, which had impressed at first with 3700000 compared to 3725000 forecasting, but the reviews of last week marred the joy to increase from 3729000 to 3752000.

In today's session in the morning, non-farm payrolls data for this month was 103 K. The markets predicted an addition of 57,000 jobs in September to the U.S. economy, after zero growth in payrolls last month. The U.S. unemployment rate was left unchanged at 9.1%. After the publication of this data the main crossroads of the dollar rebounded upwards.



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  #23  
Old 11-10-2011, 10:15 PM
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel, announced on Thursday that he would propose to establish a tax on financial transactions at the next summit of Heads of State and Government of G-20, which will take place on 3rd and 4th November in Cannes ( France). For his part, President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, said he believes that the report on Greece of the "troika" comprising the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF will probably be ready on October 24, giving birth green to the next tranche of aid for some 8,000 million euros.

But across the Atlantic, the references to the U.S. labor market that met in the last three days last week were encouraging, private employment grew in September, declined requests for unemployment benefits weekly and last month were created 103,000 new jobs, which is the best result since last abri, l and the unemployment rate remained at 9.1%. Then, after falling risk aversion, the euro ended the week marking the highest figure of 1.35. Although the figure is clearly positive for the dollar, but the market is not moving by fundamentals in the strict sense and interpretation that gives a good figure, regardless of the country to which he belongs, is the relaxation tension and thus get rid of dollars long positions taken at the time, to take refuge from the uncertainties about a new recession and banking crisis and European debt.

It is important to consider these arguments do not despair for not understanding the fall of the dollar with a good thing for the economy.


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Old 14-10-2011, 11:26 PM
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Yesterday European stocks also experienced a fall, as investors are concerned about rumors that the Greek bondholders may suffer more significant losses than expected, which poses a risk to financial stability in the eurozone, said representatives of the Bank European Central. For example, German banks are bracing for losses of up to 60% of Greek bonds, told Bloomberg news agency, without reference to the source of information. However, the euro was trading in a narrow range against the dollar yesterday, closing at 1.3771, and has now been able to grow during the Asian trading session to 1.3800 level.

On the other hand, risk appetite is still strong support after the adoption of EFSF in Slovakia, during the second vote in Parliament. In addition, there are comments from China suggest that emerging markets would be ready to increase aid through loans to Europe, through funding from the IMF. Although no details and no official confirmation, the dream that China appears with its huge reserves and save the day, is very rapid. Be cautious, as they take loans from external sources to resolve a domestic debt crisis is not an appropriate solution. However, the nations of the European Monetary Union (EMU) may have doubts about using IMF resources in an area where income levels are often much higher than in the countries of the monetary union. We have also seen that the sovereign accounts have reduced their purchases of euros, because of concern for risk.

In a few minutes to publish data on retail sales and consumer confidence (preliminary) of the University of Michigan / Reuters at 8:30 and 9:55 Eastern, respectively.


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  #25  
Old 19-10-2011, 10:49 PM
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Since this morning gold is trading around 1666.00 dollars an ounce away from its peak in the short term as evidenced by strengthening the dollar. The precious metal remains a focus for investors who are trying desperately to assess the vulnerability of the euro and compare it to the safe haven status of gold. If doubts surround the euro back to a massive, gold could witness a sudden burst of volatility when investors come into your field of trade. During the oil yesterday had to face serious difficulties, so it will be of great interest to follow their evolution over the next few days. After having gained value over the past week by a sudden wave of optimism, oil and general physical resources may be under greater scrutiny, particularly if economic data still appear disappointing.

Moody's, one of the three major rating agencies, note down the debt of Spain on Tuesday, following the footsteps of Standard & Poor's and Fitch. These firms, whose credibility is at stake in a while, and have lost much of it after Standard & Poor's slashed U.S. note last August, are making decisions of this type with similar foundations, but very inconsistent

As for today, there will be a series of reports on housing and inflation, following the similar readings court yesterday in the long-term investment and the IPP. Liquidity is likely to be higher in afternoon trade today, as it is when these releases are beginning to be published. With consumer confidence, inflation, retail sales in the spotlight for this week and next, the picture of future demand and growth levels are expected to be clarified and this could moderately weigh heavily in the direction currency in the short and medium term.


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  #26  
Old 20-10-2011, 11:34 PM
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According to its status as world reserve currency, the dollar began to strengthen yesterday and continued to grow during the Asian trading session. The dollar strengthened against all currencies with greater liquidity, except the Japanese yen, with the overall negative tone, as well as internal factors. According to the "Beige Book" of the Fed, which was published yesterday, the expectations of companies in the U.S. about the sustainability of economic recovery have worsened, despite signs of growth in September. However, the president of the Atlanta federal bank, Dennis Lockhart, and the chairman of reserve bank of St. Louis, James Ballard, expressed confidence in the U.S. avoid recession.

In Athens, on the other hand, the Parliament may approve today a new package of austerity measures, despite the continued protests in the streets, which are crippling the economy. The new package includes further reductions in pensions and public sector wages, higher taxes and even layoffs of 30,000 employees. "Without these measures, the budget of 2011 will not run as well as the budget for 2012," said the finance minister of Greece before the vote.

Since this morning gold is trading around 1620.00 dollars an ounce, shedding light on the confusion felt by many investors. The precious metal reached record highs just a couple of months ago, but over the past month languished entirely, as traders decided to wait a clear way forward. Economic data proved to be quite pessimistic in the world, including countries from the likes of China. This put a brake on the commodities market, but nevertheless, in the last week of physical resources experienced some improvement in performance. The same could be said of the stock market, as evidenced by a degree of stability after experiencing a massive wave of sales during the months of August and September. It is worth noting that investors who bet on further erosion in the stock exchange and some must be wondering when will the desired results. Perhaps the wave of sales experienced by the euro and the international stock market found grounds for rest.

What is certain is that in the coming days will know each other significant economic data. In this sense, today in the United States will publish the Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales, the fact is that all signs indicate that the U.S. housing sector still in the midst of a depression.


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  #27  
Old 02-11-2011, 10:06 PM
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Fundamental Analysis, November, 02/ 2011 2011-11-02


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Greece's unilateral decision to call a referendum to accept or reject the help of the European Union agreed last week captures the attention of the markets, which are again in maximum tension.

If Greece goes into default, which in fact has already happened, and removes 50% of the debt, is a check that technically already in default, they are almost automatically "infected" economies of Italy, whose internal problems are severe, and Spain, despite an electoral process in place that should give the new government a boost of confidence, does not resolve the real estate bubble burst three years ago, which led to her , according to official reports, over 22% unemployment in October.

This almost explosive combination of negative data can, this time, a decisive impact in the currency that brings out all these nations, the euro.

The G20 summit which begins on Thursday in Paris can lead to an ad that takes comfort to the markets, anyway, every day will create a leadership less worn and no room to maneuver.

On the other hand, in the U.S. began two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, will announce today the decision on the level of interest rates. After the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, will hold a news conference. The target range for the federal funds rate will likely remain unchanged, with the upper limit on the level of 0.25%. The more interesting question is whether the Committee is discussing some additional stimulus measures, including some form of quantitative easing, despite the acceleration of economic growth in the third quarter.
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  #28  
Old 08-11-2011, 11:15 PM
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A week that began agitated since Sunday, with resignation Greek Prime Minister Papandreou, whom happen a coalition government.

Without enter political considerations things hoped the incoming government implement plan anti crisis imposed by EU one hand gives great relief macroeconomics Greek by cutting sovereign debt has in a 50% and secondly proposes an adjustment hard towards population which surely highe conflicts current.

There is a strange calm today in the currency markets, and really understands what is coming. The G-20 ended up with zero results, the Greek political situation remains in flux, while the returns from Italy dreaded approaching the horizon of 7.00%. It seems as if all efforts to save Europe would have been in bucket or simply never have done nothing.

Confidence at times like east lasts briefly markets returning reality and knowing that background problem not solves changing government but minded and attitudinal thing markets not in situation achieve.

All this is generating strong movements in currency pairs main with Euro and Sterling recovering positions quickly gold prices and oil not outside what happens. Ounce retook marked uptrend in recent days and accentuates same in these hours, while barrel WTI fetches $ 96.40.

Furthermore, markets still digest two key data: Friday, creating jobs October failed resulted festivities and so reflected actions NYSE. But also lowered the unemployment rate to 9%, one tenth that at least did not worsen the labor market situation.

Therefore we pending expansion by the acontecimeintos who will have this week to take posisciones long or short in major pairs currency.


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  #29  
Old 15-11-2011, 09:11 PM
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Fundamental Analysis, November, 15 / 2011


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On Monday, the gloomy weather which could be seen last week has not changed, despite the resignation of Papandreou in Greece and Berlusconi in Italy which resulted in still-forming new governments. The markets seem to understand that while his successor, Mario Monti, is a highly respected technocrat in the peninsula, their presence hardly by itself can change the course of an economy that is headed for bankruptcy if it does not apply a fierce fiscal discipline, and does not control public spending is tight.

Moreover, the impression given is that this situation is not only a change of government is necessary to change the current scenario, but a change of mentality, which does not seem to be these and other countries too willing.
Reflected in numbers, European stock markets suffered losses again, followed by the New York Stock Exchange, which also had a decline in major indexes.

This state of things does not change, and yes is reaffirmed, during the European session on Tuesday. The DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 and IBEX 35 fell 1.5% on average, while the new Prime Minister of Italy, Mario Monti, begins to face his first political pressures to seek the formation of a coalition government.

The placement of the Italian Treasury bond returns to be very expensive, about 7%, which in turn had to accept Ireland, Portugal and Greece in its most critical moments.

In this context, the strong European currencies fell, led by the Euro, which is close to its minimum of 1.3483 last week, and the British Pound, which however presents a more lateralized trend in the medium term. The British currency was hit today by a report in the UK retail inflation lower than expected.

It also gives the Swiss franc, reaching its lowest since October 10, over statements by the Vice President of Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, who said that the currency still remains Helvetica high.
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  #30  
Old 17-11-2011, 10:35 PM
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Fundamental Analysis, November, 17 / 2011 2011-11-17


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Mildly, the U.S. economy encouraging indicators resubmitted, although forecasts of a future recession in 2012 will remain firm. There is that President Obama expressed concern about the European future, as the old continent will need to succeed to avoid, in part, to trigger a new crisis in his country.

Anyway, as a sign of changing moods prevailing in global markets today, suffice to say that the dollar has completely mixed behavior in relation to currencies, commodities and stocks.

Just in time for New York Stock Exchange is a certain coordination between actions and coins, old-fashioned. Beyond that, it is remarkable to see how, while oil away from the $ 100 a barrel, the Canadian dollar does not grow, and is defeated by the U.S. dollar.

The Swiss franc, for instance, also away from parity imposed by the SNB of 1.20 against the euro, and is close to 1.25, which is the new floor of which was discussed a month ago. And the yen continues its erratic behavior, subject to interventions with a show of strength, but still subject to his demand after the interventions.

Gold, another concerning the mood of the market for the $ 1800 again, although it moves away from that level in European morning Thursday. And the British pound finally seems to regain some of its lost ground in recent days, with a positive step for October retail sales.

During the U.S. session on Thursday will know the usual requests for unemployment insurance and building permits (key data), at 8:30 Eastern. Later, at 10:00, will be the turn of the index of the Philadelphia Fed, and this is the agenda of macro data of the day.
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