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  #11  
Old 14-09-2011, 12:03 AM
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Amid happenings in Greece Moody's rating agency has promised to downgrade the rating of French banks burdened by the Greece debt in the nearest future.
Now the situation with the euro has become rather adverse. Earlier the EU representatives told that they would not leave Greece alone in troubles and keep on supporting it, yet now they stick to an opposite opinion. Germany started elaborating a new plan called Plan B, as the national government is sure that the Greek default is inevitable. Amid events in Greece Moody's rating agency has promised to downgrade the ratings of French banks burdened by the Greece debt in the closest time. The situation is as follows: information on possible downgrading made stock prices fall down abruptly to their critical values. BNP Paribas dropped by 12,4%, Credit Agricole - by 10,6%, Societe Generale - by 10,7%. Societe Generale announced necessity to conduct assets sales for 4 bln. euros and carry out a programme of reducing expenditures. However, prices continued falling down.
STOXX 600 Banks Index is represented below. It is a composite index for stocks of the largest European banks.



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From the fundamental point of view, this situation is frustrating for the euro. France and Germany are in fact ready to let Greece go and let default hit it, as a default of a small Southern country is hardly comparable to a downturn of the entire EU financial system.
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  #12  
Old 15-09-2011, 12:08 AM
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All European stock markets closed yesterday in the red, as investors are trying to escape the danger of contagion in the eurozone. The problem: the suspicion of imminent insolvency collective Greek. Even the French government is preparing for such insolvency, promising its big banks, which are flooded by Greek bonds - the liquidity necessary for ensuring its solvency.

There should be no such concern for the French banks since the summer of 200 passed the test of financial stress. But now reports suggest that most banks are severely undercapitalized French-up to 273.2 billion U.S. dollars - and this is beginning to worry investors.

Therefore, investors have fled from Europe to send money back to American and Asian markets. This has driven these markets, if only slightly, an average rise of 1% for both American DIJA (11 061) and for the Japanese Nikkei (8588). In Italy, government bonds are looking to raise their yields and the Italian government, which has a debt of 1.9 billion euros, is desperately seeking investors. According to reports, China could be your new buyer.

There is a scenario of global deceleration, mainly influenced by the debt problems of Europe and the delicate economic situation facing the U.S., which now has a population growth of around 1% that fails to reduce the high levels of unemployment. In this environment, emerging countries, mainly Latin Americans, although they are entrenched in a situation with respect to external shocks, and are not immune to a possible worsening of the fiscal crisis of the G3 debt and feel the impact, especially relating to external trade (real channel) and capital flows (financial channel).

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  #13  
Old 15-09-2011, 12:10 AM
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The euro is now in a defensive position amid fading hopes that China will buy Italian obligations. Investors have been considering the comments made by German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the stabilizing measures: she thinks they are to be long-term. Merkel also emphasized that the eurozone debt crisis is unlikely to be settled soon.
The euro has been facing downtrend risks amid remaining concerns over swelling European debt problems. Investors have been attaching great significance to the phone conference of Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy that is to take place later during the session, Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Yuzo brokerage promotion manager Sakai says.
The European Commission will soon put forward its offers on eurozone obligation release, president of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso said on Wednesday. Yet he warned that it will not put an end to the crisis. "I want to confirm that the Commission will soon present options for the introduction of eurobonds," he said.
"Some of these could be implemented within the terms of the current treaty, and others would require treaty changes."
"But we must be honest: this will not bring an immediate solution for all the problems we face and it will come as an element of a comprehensive approach to further economic and political integration," he said.
Barroso highlighted the need for deeper integration of eurozone and added that it will not be until eurozone shows that it can fulfill its obligations that the financial markets will be confident in the ability of eurozone to overcome the crisis.



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  #14  
Old 15-09-2011, 10:30 PM
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There is a scenario of global slowdown, mainly influenced by the debt problems of Europe and the delicate economic situation facing the U.S., which now has a population growth of around 1% that fails to reduce the high levels of unemployment. In this environment, emerging countries, mainly Latin Americans, although they are entrenched in a situation with respect to external shocks, and are not immune to a possible worsening of the fiscal crisis of the G3 debt and feel the impact, especially relating to external trade (real channel) and capital flows (financial channel).

The reduction in global demand has added to concern policy makers in emerging countries, which suffer a contraction in aggregate demand in their economies. The exhibition of Latin American countries to the vagaries of the business cycle in developed economies, unlike other historical moments, is relatively low, Mexico is the exception because it depends heavily on the U.S. economic cycle. However, the main trading partners in the region, as is the case of China has a high exposure to economic problems that may arise in the advanced economies, and could spread to Latin America indirectly.

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  #15  
Old 20-09-2011, 09:46 PM
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The gold market is at risk of flood peaks from generation product of a series of overbought signals arising very close to the psychological level of $ 2000 per ounce. Also, the recent increase by the CME the margin required to operate an ounce (55%), makes it likely the occurrence of further decline able to quell investors more clinging and hinders any new long positions. This explains why gold has been under pressure lately despite the large capital flows shelter received after the intervention of the Swiss National Bank, SNB-market EUR / CHF and the large uncertainties regarding the sovereign debt crisis the Eurozone.

His long-term cycle suggests the formation of a peak, where his last movement sets a pronounced parabolic high-risk area. From the perspective of Elliott Wave analysis, the recent movement belongs possibly at the end of the intermediate phase of impulsive advance (wave 3). A confirmation by a weekly close below $ 1600 a collapse could generate up to 28% in early 2012 could form an important ground and generated a great buying opportunity.

Several variables of feeling recently reached extreme levels and is therefore expected to recede. The volume of speculative capital are a concern in the market since the registration of a new record in the metal is exposed to a structural decline. Given the substantial long position has been for the past two years on the market for an ounce, down from this area could lead to serious consequences. So its macroeconomic fundamentals would be temporarily frozen as traders cut benefits as a result of positioning saturated.

This whole scenario occurs in a context of escalating tensions and economic policies leads investors to demand more attractive haven assets. However, the world is running out of places to shelter. Proof of this has been the Swiss Franc intervention by the SNB, in a desperate attempt to exclude from the market the shelter category, Japan Yen still watching her lurking highs not seen since the Second World War and coins belonging to the group of commodities retreat from extreme levels.

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  #16  
Old 20-09-2011, 10:47 PM
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More signals on EURUSD are coming. The dominoes principle set to work.
Yesterday the rating of Italy was downgraded from �+ to � by Standard and Poor's agency. It is worth noticing that the rating forecast had been negative.
The rating was downgraded due to political instability in the country and explicit flaws of the monetary policy.
At present Italy lacks any prospects of economic growth. Moreover, Moody's rating agency decided to dedicate another month to reconsidering Italy’s rating. Everybody is concerned about a considerable state debt and well-pronounced economic stagnation in Italy, third largest EU economy. In mid September the Parliament of Italy approved a new law on tough economic measures in the country and cutting budget spending by 50 billion euros. However, few analysts are assured that this law will help cope with the swelling crisis and stabilize the national financial markets.
As to the EURUSD reaction to lower rating, dodji formed in the day chart. Amid the news on the rating downgrading stagnation is now at its critical level - 61.8 of Fibonacci long-term correction.





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  #17  
Old 21-09-2011, 10:15 PM
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Apparently, the Troika talks in Greece have been productive and encouraging. It is expected that the review of implementing austerity plans for Greece, now suspended, will resume next week. Thus, the Greek finance minister expressed confidence in getting the next tranche of the financing package so absolutely necessary, an event that has allowed collective breathe a sigh of relief to markets

Now that the possibility of risk in Greece is attenuated, the market's attention is directed to the meeting this afternoon in the CFMA, with most expected to enter a "shift in operations."

A two-day meeting of Federal Reserve policy-setting committee began yesterday and a monetary policy statement will be released after the meeting concludes today. Many expect the Fed will announce further measures to help a struggling economy, including changing the composition of your portfolio so it keeps the longer-term debt to reduce long-term interest rates. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of expectations of analysts and investors, is meant to predict the evolution of six months in advance will be reduced to less than 43.3 from 37.6 in August less. That's the lowest since December 2008. Economists expected a drop of less than 45.

The Swiss economy is showing increasing signs of slowing after expanding in the second quarter at the weakest pace since emerging from a recession in 2009. The central bank on September 15 reiterated its commitment to defend a ceiling of 1.20 franc against the euro to protect exports, while leaving borrowing costs at zero. According to reports yesterday, exports fell by 7% in August from the previous month, while imports increased 0.9% during the same period.

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  #18  
Old 27-09-2011, 10:54 PM
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A group of analysts argues that hikes Asian and European stock markets is based on the illusion of a European, it seems that the world wants from authorities who have proven inefficient and bureaucrats in finding fundamental solutions, which now magically create a wonderful plan to heal the ills of the euro zone debt and an increasingly Greece plunged into the abyss. According to the website of Serenity consigned Markets rumors on an extension of several bailouts the eurozone countries committed line as Germany has denied categorically. Meanwhile, many investment banks argue that the European Central Bank (ECB) has 80% chance to cut interest rates by 50 basis points before October 6. We express at the time, we found a total insanity, the ECB rate hike last time, with highly indebted countries, without financial oxygen debt repayment (to be paid in euros and rising interest rates and higher cost of currency). Among many hopes delusional reaction today meet Angela Merkel and President Papandreou Greek. Greece will invariably to default.

In the currency market with a weekly start plagued with doubts, ultimately the trend (though not very convincingly) appear to be little more appetite for risk by selling dollars, which has brought the consequent rise in a basket of currencies, highlighting appreciation of the euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, New Zealand and Australian gold and up to yesterday was in the doldrums (reached USD 1532 per ounce). In the commodities market highlights the rise in Brent Crude +1.04% to USD 105.02 per barrel WTI and +2.46% to USD 82.21 a barrel. Following the trend of gold and silver rose also came to USD 32.67 in the future. All the up waiting for rescuers European heroes.

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  #19  
Old 28-09-2011, 11:31 PM
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The Fed said that economic growth remains slow and the indicators show continued weakness of U.S. labor market, the unemployment rate staying stubbornly high. Also, the household spending grew moderately in recent months and non-residential investment remain weak. Meanwhile, inflation appears to have moderated since early this year, and prices of energy and some commodities have dropped significantly, maintaining stable long-term expectations.

However, the FOMC is expected to pick up the pace of economic expansion in coming quarters, but they estimate that unemployment will decrease moderately to desired levels by the Committee, and that inflation will tend to levels at or below targets for the effect of reduced energy costs and commodity prices.

Another decision taken by the committee, but remained in the background was the minimum to keep the reference interest rate (0.25%), anticipating that the economic conditions to ensure low levels until at least mid-2013.

Furthermore, the Committee also decided to continue with its policy of roll-over to Treasury bonds, and supporting the mortgage market, payments by reinvesting the current holdings of mortgage-backed securities.


On the subject of Forex, the euro was boosted by rising to the announcement of the European Union. The same was stated intention to establish a plan that lead to greater liquidity for their "rescue funds" if required. This announcement led to the single currency stability after a tough start to the week. Also, the stock market began to perform positively. Meanwhile, the pound and Australian dollar managed to get away from their lows. Gold moved again on the rise and, from this morning is trading at around 1640.00 per ounce. There are many discussions that are taking place around the precious metal, especially when it comes to defining its direction. However, it is clear that while speculators choose their positions, the impact generated is quite deep.

The commodity prices again showed a degree of downward pressure. While oil was played yesterday in a positive way, it is recommended that short-term traders note that the trend is still rather negative. Today we will announce the Crude Oil Inventories noreamericano, but it is the general economic outlook which creates greater difficulties. Over the last week traded silver with a high degree of volatility, even more than gold, if you look on a percentage basis.


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  #20  
Old 29-09-2011, 10:00 PM
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Bernanke yesterday said that if there was danger of disinflation or deflation would be compelled to act, while recognizing that the QE has not been shown to be fully effective with respect to emerging markets was relative and in terms of monetary policy made �‹�‹only brief reviews, as that would take more fiscal stimulus to revive the labor market and the mortgage and remain in the minimum rates for the time necessary until the economy grows robustly. GDP is published today, and weekly stop in the U.S. housing sector.

Today is expected to vote in Germany too tight to make the European rescue plan forward, which come close to unblock aid to Greece but with doubts about whether aid in the future would no longer be granted given the narrow margin that some governments have in their respective countries. Something that helped yesterday to plant some relative optimism were the words of Barroso, who again warned of the critical situation Europe and stressed the need for the creation of Eurobonds as natural and necessary step to end the mistrust in the markets.


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