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  #1131  
Old 20-04-2017, 11:22 PM
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis April 20, 2017

USD/CAD is currently going through a good amount of volatility in the market. There had been bearish impulsive movement with a great pressure which was recently taken out by bullish impulsive moves. We have observed price exhaustions for several times in this pair and currently sentimental confusion going on in USD/CAD. Yesterday CAD Gov. Council Member Wilkins spoke about the key interest rates and monetary policy which did not provide any positive outcome for the currency, as a result USD gained a good amount of strength closing above 1.3450 yesterday. On the USD side, today market is expected to be quite volatile as important economic events like Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is going to be published which is expected to be at 25.6 which previously was at 32.8 and along with it Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 241K which previously was at 234K. If USD news comes positive today, we might see the pair climbing up much higher in the coming days. Now let us look at the technical view, the price has again managed to enter the channel area with a daily close above 1.3450. As of the bullish impulsive pressure and taking out the prior swing on the upside, it is expected that the price will move towards 1.3535-50 resistance area and if the resistance area is taken out with a daily close then we will be looking forward to further upside movement towards 1.40.


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  #1132  
Old 21-04-2017, 09:26 PM
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USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis April 21, 2017

SD/CHF is currently hovering between the corrective structure of 0.9950 to 1.0068. Today is quite an important day for USD as Flash Manufacturing PMI report is due later, which is expected to be at 53.9 which previously was at 53.3, Flash Services PMI is expected to be at 53.7 which previously was at 52.8, Existing Home Sales report is expected to show a rise to 5.61M which previously was at 5.48M.

Besides, FOMC Member Kashkari is going to speak today about a timing of rate hikes and further monetary policy. Higher volatility is likely to hit the market during these economic events. On the CHF side, we did not have any economic events throughout the week. Currently USD economic reports are the only factors to determine the pair's dynamic fundamentally

Now let us look at the technical picture. Yesterday, the price has rejected the bears off the level 0.9950. Currently, the pair is trading under bullish pressure. As the corrective structure is playing rules, we await the price to hit the nearest resistance of 1.0068 in the coming days. Unless the price breaks below 0.9950 with a daily close, the pair will follow the bullish bias.


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  #1133  
Old 21-04-2017, 09:30 PM
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AUD/JPY Fundamental Analysis April 21, 2017

AUD/JPY is going through a non-volatile bearish move. The pair is currently showing some bullish pressure upon the bounce off 81.50 level. Today, Japan presented Flash Manufacturing PMI which was at 52.8, stronger than the consensus of 52.5. Tertiary Industry Activity report was logged at 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.3%.

On the other hand, Australia did not have any economic news today but on Wednesday NAB released Quarterly Business Conference which was unchanged at 6. Fundamentally JPY is stronger than AUD. The pair is expected to move more downward in the coming days.

Now let us look at the pair from the technical view. The price has a bounce from 81.50 with a bullish engulfing price action. The non-volatile bearish trend is expected to continue. Currently, a bullish move towards 83.00 level is just around the corner. If we see any bullish rejection off that level, we will consider short positions with the nearest target towards 81.50 again and then 79.20 support leve


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  #1134  
Old 21-04-2017, 09:36 PM
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Global macro overview for 21/04/2017

The US Unemployment Claims data was slightly above consensus forecasts, but the overall job market in the US remains stable. The Initial Jobless Claims increased to 244,000 in the week ending April 15th from 234,000 previously, while the consensus was at the level of 242,000. The four-week moving average declined to 243,000 from 247,250 previously and it was the 111th week when the claims were below a benchmark level of 300,000.

In conclusion, the Unemployment Claims data still indicates a very low level of layoffs and underlying confidence in the labor market. Importantly, the next nonfarm payrolls are expected to rebound strongly from the lower than expected increase in March.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the bounce from the level of 99.37, the bulls are trying to test the next technical resistance at the level of 100.00. The oversold market conditions and the bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator support the bullish bias.

Nevertheless, there is no real bounce without the 100.00 level violation. If this level is breached, then the level of 99.37 might be labeled as a lower low.


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  #1135  
Old 21-04-2017, 09:41 PM
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Global macro overview for 21/04/2017

The PMI Manufacturing data from Japan has beaten the expectations. The Markit/Nikkei final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 52.8 points in April, up from a final March estimate of 52.4 points. It was the eighth consecutive month Japan's PMI was above 50 that separates the expansion from contraction.

Japanese factories reported faster output and new export growth. Backlogs of work increased at a faster rate, spurring higher output and input prices. The number of purchases also rose at a quicker rate, with managers giving a more optimistic view of the future.

In conclusion, a good set of data delivered from the Japanese economy. Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price is trying to bounce from the 61%Fibo at the level of 107.85, but the technical resistance at the level of 110.10 hasn't been violated yet. The bounce was shallow and reached only the level of 109.50 so far. Moreover, the market conditions look overbought, so the bias remains to the downside. The next support is seen at the level of 108.47 and 108.12.


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  #1136  
Old 21-04-2017, 09:55 PM
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AUD/JPY Fundamental Analysis April 21, 2017

AUD/JPY is going through a non-volatile bearish move. The pair is currently showing some bullish pressure upon the bounce off 81.50 level. Today, Japan presented Flash Manufacturing PMI which was at 52.8, stronger than the consensus of 52.5. Tertiary Industry Activity report was logged at 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.3%. On the other hand, Australia did not have any economic news today but on Wednesday NAB released Quarterly Business Conference which was unchanged at 6. Fundamentally JPY is stronger than AUD. The pair is expected to move more downward in the coming days. Now let us look at the pair from the technical view. The price has a bounce from 81.50 with a bullish engulfing price action. The non-volatile bearish trend is expected to continue. Currently, a bullish move towards 83.00 level is just around the corner. If we see any bullish rejection off that level, we will consider short positions with the nearest target towards 81.50 again and then 79.20 support level.


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  #1137  
Old 21-04-2017, 09:56 PM
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Global macro overview for 21/04/2017: The US Unemployment Claims data was slightly above consensus forecasts, but the overall job market in the US remains stable. The Initial Jobless Claims increased to 244,000 in the week ending April 15th from 234,000 previously, while the consensus was at the level of 242,000. The four-week moving average declined to 243,000 from 247,250 previously and it was the 111th week when the claims were below a benchmark level of 300,000. In conclusion, the Unemployment Claims data still indicates a very low level of layoffs and underlying confidence in the labor market. Importantly, the next nonfarm payrolls are expected to rebound strongly from the lower than expected increase in March. Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the bounce from the level of 99.37, the bulls are trying to test the next technical resistance at the level of 100.00. The oversold market conditions and the bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator support the bullish bias. Nevertheless, there is no real bounce without the 100.00 level violation. If this level is breached, then the level of 99.37 might be labeled as a lower low.


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  #1138  
Old 21-04-2017, 09:57 PM
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USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis April 21, 2017

USD/CHF is currently hovering between the corrective structure of 0.9950 to 1.0068. Today is quite an important day for USD as Flash Manufacturing PMI report is due later, which is expected to be at 53.9 which previously was at 53.3, Flash Services PMI is expected to be at 53.7 which previously was at 52.8, Existing Home Sales report is expected to show a rise to 5.61M which previously was at 5.48M. Besides, FOMC Member Kashkari is going to speak today about a timing of rate hikes and further monetary policy. Higher volatility is likely to hit the market during these economic events. On the CHF side, we did not have any economic events throughout the week. Currently USD economic reports are the only factors to determine the pair's dynamic fundamentally. Now let us look at the technical picture. Yesterday, the price has rejected the bears off the level 0.9950. Currently, the pair is trading under bullish pressure. As the corrective structure is playing rules, we await the price to hit the nearest resistance of 1.0068 in the coming days. Unless the price breaks below 0.9950 with a daily close, the pair will follow the bullish bias.


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  #1139  
Old 21-04-2017, 09:58 PM
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Global macro overview for 21/04/2017: The PMI Manufacturing data from Japan has beaten the expectations. The Markit/Nikkei final manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 52.8 points in April, up from a final March estimate of 52.4 points. It was the eighth consecutive month Japan's PMI was above 50 that separates the expansion from contraction. Japanese factories reported faster output and new export growth. Backlogs of work increased at a faster rate, spurring higher output and input prices. The number of purchases also rose at a quicker rate, with managers giving a more optimistic view of the future. In conclusion, a good set of data delivered from the Japanese economy. Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price is trying to bounce from the 61%Fibo at the level of 107.85, but the technical resistance at the level of 110.10 hasn't been violated yet. The bounce was shallow and reached only the level of 109.50 so far. Moreover, the market conditions look overbought, so the bias remains to the downside. The next support is seen at the level of 108.47 and 108.12.


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  #1140  
Old 24-04-2017, 03:27 PM
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Global macro overview for 24/04/2017

The results of the first round of the French Presidential Elections indicate a split win. The centrist Macron had polled around 24% with both National Front leader Le Pen at 21%.

This two candidates will move ahead to the second round run-off due to be held on Sunday, May 7th. Socialist Party candidate Hamon quickly conceded defeat and endorsed Macron for the second round.

Fillon also conceded within an hour of polls closing and backed Macron against Le Pen.In conclusion, two opposite political points of view will fight for the French presidency in two weeks. The win of Marcon is Euro positive (risk-on), the win of LePen is Euro negative (risk-off).

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market gapped up to the level of 1.0918, but now is moving lower slowly.

The Friday close at the level of 1.0730 might be tested again by the end of the week. The next support is seen at the level of 1.0777, and the next resistance is the gap high at the level of 1.0918. The bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports the bearish bias.


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