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  #1  
Old 24-06-2010, 12:46 PM
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Default Fundamental analysis from instafx

The fundamental market review for May 24 2010-05-24

The euro was demonstrating the uprise during the second part of the last week, as the investors preferred not to take up too much of short positions after the active selling of the common currency this week.
Investors had fears to assume significant positions in the euro and other currencies after the acceptation of numerous important decisions during the weekend in May. On Friday in Brussels there was a meeting of the working group of the European financial ministers of finances.
A mass exit of the investors out of the euro amid the economic problems deepened the euro this week to a four-year low versus the US dollar, and a number of short positions in the euro reached the record maximum.
According to the analytical experts’ expectations investors are afraid to play actively in favour of the euro or versus the euro, especially taking into consideration the rumors that the European governments can give it a support.
“The market realized the downfalling tendency of the euro though taking up this attitude you are making yourself dependent from a possible intervention”, noted Daragh Maher, Deputy Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy . “The euro is still structurally weak since the cover of short positions which we were observing during the previous week is likely to have sputtered out”, said Tony Morris from ANZ Bank.
In May, the euro has descended by almost 6 %, which gave birth to the rumors that European officials can be worried by such circumstances.



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  #2  
Old 25-11-2010, 09:49 PM
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The price of crude oil has recorded yesterday its sharpest advance in the last four months, jumping up by over 3% to a level of 84 US dollars for one barrel during electronic trading at the New York Commodities exchange. The price of gold, in the meanwhile, recorded a slight descent by 0.4% to a level of 1372 US dollars for one ounce of gold.
Wall Street trading closed yesterday on index rises inspired by positive macroeconomic data from the labor market. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had strengthened by 1.4% to 11,188 points, the NASDAQ index ticked up by 1.9% to 2,543 points, whereas the S&P 500 had risen by 1.5% to 1,198 points. Today the stock markets in the United States will be closed for Thanksgiving.
Index rises have been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets for the first time in three days. As such the Tokyo stock exchange has recorded a 0.8% rise, the Hong Kong exchange climbs about 1%, and the Seoul exchange climbs slightly by 0.2%.
In the American macroeconomic arena, the Irish government had published data yesterday regarding its new austerity plan including the reduction of government deficits by 15 billion Euros (4% of the nation's GDP) over 4 years. The program includes a 10 billion expenditures cut as well as new taxes that will increase government revenue by 5 billion Euros.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that the amount of new unemployment claims in the United States had fallen last week by 34 thousand to 407 thousand, the lowest level since July 2008. The reduction was far sharper than predicted by analysts, who expected to see 435 thousand new unemployment claims. Furthermore, it was reported that private consumption in the United States grew by 0.4% in October, slightly lower than economists' predictions of a 0.5% rise. Furthermore, the order data for non-consumable products had descended by 3.3% in October as compared to the previous month, while analysts expected only a 0.1% decline in orders.





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  #3  
Old 29-11-2010, 09:06 PM
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A mixed trend has been detected this morning in the Asian stock market due to the confirmation of an 85-billion dollar aid package for Ireland and the tensions in Korea. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange rose by 0.7%, the Hong Kong exchange strengthened by 0.2%, the Taiwan exchange advanced by 0.6%, the Shanghai exchange dropped 0.5% and the Singapore exchange by 0.3%, whereas the Seoul exchange dived 0.9% due to continued tensions in Korea.

In Europe, the Finance ministers of the Eurozone countries have confirmed yesterday the transfer of an 85-billion Euro aid package for Ireland, this in order to prevent the country from reaching a default and thus to stop the expansion of the European debt crisis. Ireland will receive 67.5 billion Euros from the EU, whereas the remaining 17.5 billion dollars will come from the IMF's pension fund.

The price of crude oil actually strengthens as a result of the approval of aid to Ireland, which expected to support the demand for black gold. Crude oil January futures are trading around 84.20 United States dollars for one barrel of oil, forming a 0.6% rise at the New York Commodities exchange.

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  #4  
Old 30-11-2010, 09:31 PM
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The first trading day of the new week on Wall Street locked yesterday on light index drops inspired by the concerns over the expansion of the European debt crisis. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4% to a level of 11,050 points, having dipped below the 11,000-point mark during the trading day. The NASDAQ index fell about 0.4%, reaching the 2,525-point level, whereas the S&P 500 index decreased 0.1% and reached the level of 1,188 points.

Most of Asia's stock markets have recorded sharp index declines this morning due to Wall Street descents recorded yesterday, as well as estimates that the Chinese government is planning to tighten its policies as part of its attempt to rein in inflation. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange dropped 1.7%, the Hong Kong exchange plunged about 1.1%, Singapore shed 0.5%, Shanghai declined by 3.0%, whereas the Seoul and Taiwan stock markets rose by 0.3%.

According to the predictions of European economists, the budget cuts that European government plan on implementing in order to put brakes on the debt crisis will hurt the European exports and demand sectors heavily. Europe's economy will continue slowing down next year, with the 16 Euro zone countries' GDP growing by 1.5% in 2011, this after having grown by 1.7% in 2010. The German economy, which provides the main positive point, is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2010 and continue leading the region's recovery, whereas the economies of Ireland, Greece, and Spain will continue shrinking due to the stern austerity programs introduced there. With the close of markets last night, the European stock markets locked on sharp index declines, with the FTSE index in London dropping by 1.75%, the CAC 40 index diving by about 2.5%, and the Frankfurt DAX index dropping by 2.2%.

Crude oil prices leaped up yesterday by more than 2%, locking over the level of 85 United States dollars for one barrel of oil due to the expectations for increased demand for heating oil due to colder than usual weather in Europe and the American North-East. January futures on crude oil have locked on 85.70 after a 2.4% ascent at the New York Commodities exchange. Gold futures for December have locked on a 0.3% ascent to a level of 1,366 United States dollars for one ounce of gold at the New York commodities exchange.

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  #5  
Old 03-12-2010, 01:36 AM
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Wall Street trading locked yesterday on sharp index rises due to encouraging macroeconomic data published in the United States. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average leaped up 2.3% to a level of 11,255 points, the NASDAQ index climbed up 2% to 2,549 points, whereas the S&P 500 strengthened by 1.6% to 1,206 points.

On Asia's stock markets, sharp index rises have been recorded this morning as Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.8% to its highest level in five months. In China, the Shanghai exchange rose 1.6%, while South Korea's KRX increased by 1.2%, and Hong Kong's stock exchange strengthened by 1.0%.

In the global macroeconomic arena, yesterday the Fed published its "Beige book", a periodic report on the state of the American economy. Its data showed that America's economy continued recovering due to improvements in the labor and manufacture markets. Furthermore, the growth prediction for America's economy for the next year was raised by Goldman-Sachs economists, which are currently predicting that America's GDP will rise by 2.7% during 2011, as opposed to a previous prediction of 2% growth.

In additional news from the American macroeconomic sphere, the ISM research institute stated yesterday that the procurement manager’s index for the manufacturing industry in the United States recorded a decline in November, though still remaining at a level that reflects growth in the sector's activity. The index descended last month to a level of 56.6 points, while economists predicted a decline to a level of 56.5 points.

The preliminary employment report for the United States private sector published yesterday has recorded the sharpest monthly rise in the number of employed persons for November in the last three years. According to the report, the private sector grew by 93 thousand jobs last months, this following a rise of 43 thousand jobs in October. The rise was sharper than predicted by analysts, who predicted that the private sector would grow by 70 thousand jobs in November.

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Old 07-12-2010, 10:37 PM
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Asia's stock markets have traded this morning on a mixed trend due to investors' expectations that the Chinese central bank will raise the interest rate this week. As such, the Hong Kong stock exchange rose 0.6%, the Tokyo exchange declined by 0.1%, the Seoul exchange advanced by 0.4%, Taiwan's exchange weakened by 0.1%, the Shanghai exchange retreated by 0.3%, whereas the Singapore stock exchange was trading without change.

Wall Street trading closed yesterday on a mixed trend due to statements by the United States Fed chairman regarding the need for future economic stimuli, as well as renewed concerns over the spreading of the European debt crisis. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.2% to a level of 11,362 points, the NASDAQ index strengthened slightly by 0.1% to a level of 2,594, while the S&P 500 index weakened slightly by 0.1% to a level of 1,223 points.

In Europe, concerns over expansion of the credit crisis are mounting again, after Moody's ratings agency lowered by two levels the Hungary's credit rating yesterday to only one level above junk bonds. This is the lowest investment level existing in the company. Furthermore, it has been stated that the company is considering further downgradings. The S&P ratings agency has left Hungary's rating last month at its lowest BBB- investment rating.

In the global currency market, the United States Dollar is continuing to weaken against the world's leading currencies, having lost 0.20% against the Japanese Yen to 82.55 Japanese Yen for one United States dollar. Again the Euro the dollar loses about 0.4% to 1.3330 United States dollars for one Euro, whereas the British pound strengthens against the dollar by 0.5% to a level of 1.5750 United States dollars for one British pound.

On the commodities market, gold closed at an all-time high after the statement of the Fed chairman regarding the need as well as renewed concerns over the spreading of the European debt crisis, broadened the appetite of investors for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Furthermore, silver closed at a 30-year high, while oil broke a two-year record, closing over 90 United States dollars for one barrel of oil. The price of gold, having risen by 29% since the beginning of the year, had closed yesterday at 1,416 United States dollars for one ounce of gold, after a 0.7% climb at the New York commodities exchange. Crude oil futures for January had closed in New York at the end of a volatile trading day, reaching a level of 89.38 United States dollars for one barrel of oil, completing a 0.2% climb.

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Old 15-12-2010, 08:31 AM
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A mixed trend has been observed this morning on Asian stock markets after mixed performance on Wall Street last night. Wall Street indexes signaled stability at the opening of trade this morning.

Wall Street opened the week on a mixed trend based on improvements in growth predictions for the American economy, and the fact that the Chinese central bank has not raised the interest rate this year despite inflation in the country accelerating to the highest level in the last two years. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.2% to a level of 11,428 points, and the S&P 500 locked on a slight rise to a level of 1,240 points, whereas the NASDAQ index dropped by 0.5% to a level of 2,624 points.

55 economists who participated in the Wall Street Journal's monthly economist poll are now predicting an annualized GDP grow of 2.6% on average this quarter in the United States, as opposed to a 2.4% growth prediction in last month's poll. The poll also pointed to an improvement in economists' predictions for next year. On average, the economists are predicting a 3% growth for 2011. At the same time, the chances for a double-dip recession have also reduced, and are now at 15% - the lowest level in 2010 – as compared to 22% in the Wall Street Journal's September poll.

The price of oil leaped up yesterday by more than 1% to a level of 88.5 United States dollars per barrel, after OPEC countries had left oil production unchanged due to declined demand and the weakening of the dollar. OPEC left its oil production at 24.84 million barrels per day.

In the global currency market, the dollar's value had taken a sharp dive yesterday, whereas the Euro leaped up by 1.55%, trading around the levels of 1.34 United States dollars for one Euro. The sharp dive in the greenback's value is the result, in part, from the decision to extend the tax cuts in the United States, which may cause America's budget deficit to balloon further.

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Old 08-09-2011, 10:17 PM
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In the United States Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech about the economy and in the evening, President Obama will act in relation to the unemployment situation. The U.S. stock market closed the day higher on Wednesday, but one day of profit does not mean that the performance of the market has turned positive.

The German court said yesterday it was OK for the government to allow financial assistance in connection with sovereign debt crises. However, the court added that all future aid packages must be approved by the German parliament. On the other hand, can still be heard rumors regarding the dilemma faced by Greece for its economic prospects and its ability to meet established goals.

For the day today, it is expected that global investors keep close Trichet signals, this speech has already been given, Bernanke and Obama. However, it is likely that after the statements operators continue to have several questions unanswered. Nevertheless, it should be noted that officials will do their best to give a positive spin on the week.

Traders are on alert for any change in tone, in particular any change toward a more conciliatory.

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Old 12-09-2011, 11:30 PM
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An incredible downward rally of the euro last week broke every rule of the technical analysis. At present the euro is losing its positions much more intensively than the US dollar index. Let us analyze the reasons for such an abrupt fall.
Huge euro sales were mainly driven by the shock resignation of Jurgen Stark, a key member of the European Central Bank. The official reason for this is personal. Yet, such large news agencies as Reuters and RBK have been saying that the true reason is acute disagreements between Stark and his colleagues. It is pretty obvious that the disagreements might have appeared over the issue of buying European State Bonds. Taking into consideration the current condition of the euro, it was severely affected by the resignation of one of top officials who was to stay in office until 2014.
Moreover, the euro was also pressed down by news about Greece’s default. This information was released at the end of last week. According to this data, Greece’s default was expected to happen on September 10-11. The information on Greece’s default was denied by Greece’s minister of finance.
Under the present conditions selling appears to be rational, from the fundamental point of view. As to the technical point of view, a correction rebound may well be expected. The current situation around eurozone has been creating beneficial conditions for downward trend.
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Old 14-09-2011, 12:01 AM
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Breaches of Greece increased opposition in Germany to new financial aid Merkel leaving more and more alone in its efforts to save Greece.

Thus, the markets begin to discount an orderly restructuring of Greece or even leaving the euro was more likely the former than the latter. The biggest losses recorded by the French CAC affected by the explosion of a nuclear plant and the fear that Moody's downgraded the rating to its 3 major banks (BNP, Credit Agricole and Soc Gen) on maintaining a negative outlook by high exposure to debt helena.

WAS also was carried away by the negative tone, but rumors of future purchases of Italian debt by China allowed a bullish close. In this context, the Bund increased in price (IRR 1.74%) and the euro recovered some lost ground on Friday to $ 1.368.
The markets are reacting with fear to a situation whose consequences are difficult to calibrate. There are two problems with bankruptcy in Greece: the impact on the European financial system and contagion to countries like Spain and Italy.
In the first case, the French banks seem to be the most affected, but do not forget the Germans. The fall of these values �‹�‹in the last few days speak for themselves. And in the contagion spreads are reflecting it. Today's auction of 5 years in Italy has reached historic highs of the bond return if the amount raised is approaching the maximum of the target.

What does the future hold?, Authorities in Greece seem committed to keeping the ship afloat, but there may come a time when the Greek people have to evaluate the actual cost of implementing austerity measures in order to maintain their membership in the euro area, and decide that you no longer worth it. Either that, or the increasingly discontented members of the main euro zone states may wonder what exactly they are getting in exchange for all the bailout money, and if they are investing more and more funds in the rescue, with little hope of recovering their investment. There seems to be an easy solution to the dilemma of Greece.

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