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  #4561  
Old Yesterday, 06:27 PM
njfx njfx is offline
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Where can USD be bought and sold at profit? (12.12.2017)



Experts say the US dollar is going to gain strong momentum this trading week. Counting the days before the Fedís policy meeting, traders take less notice of other assets. In the Asian session, the US dollar kept on a steady rally against the Japanese yen.

The dollar/yen pair is now trading flat close to 113.40. Analysts assume the pair is on track to reach 114.00 in a few trading days. This scenario is favored by the progress in the US tax legislation and the policy meeting of the US central bank. The rate hike by the Fed has been already priced in by the markets. However, some economists are warning that the regulator could announce a slower pace of monetary tightening next year. So, the US dollar might sag initially after the press conference amid a drop in demand.

Interestingly, the US currency is not advancing across the board. Today, the Russian ruble is the main rival of the greenback. The dollar/ruble pair opened below 59.00 at the Moscow Exchange.
The Bank of Russia is holding a meeting on Friday. Market participants expect the central bank to lower the key interest rate to 8% from 8.25%.

Apart from the policy meeting, the ruble finds support from crude oil as its prices have been rapidly increasing. Brent crude benchmark grade is trading higher at 65 US dollars 30 cents a barrel. Brent futures received a boost from a report that a major North Sea pipeline will be shut down for weeks to repair a leak.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate has also settled up at 58 dollars 40 cents a barrel. Energy investors are anticipating data on US oil inventories from the American Petroleum Institute in the hope of a big drawdown.

Experts say the rapid oil rally is the main catalyst for the strength of the Russian ruble. The producer price data is due in the US later today. Even strong readings are unlikely to change the bearish sentiment on the dollar/ruble pair.

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  #4562  
Old Yesterday, 06:30 PM
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Apakah Fed siap untuk kenaikan suku bunga berikutnya? (12.12.2017)



Tahun 2017 telah ditandai dengan serangkaian peristiwa geopolitik yang mempengaruhi sentimen perdagangan terhadap Forex.

Hanya pelaku pasar saham yang tetap optimis karena indeks saham AS dengan meyakinkan bergerak ke atas membuat rekor baru satu per satu. Pekan perdagangan baru dimulai dengan pola bullish. Indeks kembali ke level tertinggi minggu lalu.

Indeks biasanya cenderung turun karena ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga, yang akan membuat kredit pembangunan bagi perusahaan lebih mahal. Pelaku pasar yakin bahwa besok Komite Federal Pasar Terbuka akan memutuskan untuk menaikkan suku bunga utama pada akhir pertemuan kebijakan moneter. Namun, dinamika saham akan naik, yang berarti kebanyakan trader memprediksi pelemahan moneter. Pada 2018, the Fed diantisipasi untuk lebih berhati-hati dan mengambil pendekatan tunggu-dan-lihat, menunda kenaikan suku bunga selanjutnya.

Perkiraan pesimis seperti itu telah mempengaruhi pergerakan mata uang AS. Para trader menjual greenback dan indeks dolar AS menapak dari level 94,00. Indeks gagal menembus angka ini karena laporan hari Jumat mengenai pertumbuhan pendapatan yang lemah.

Data kemarin dari Biro Statistik Tenaga Kerja AS menunjukkan ketidakstabilan ekonomi AS. Pembukaan lowongan kerja di AS menunjukkan angka yang lebih lambat dari perkiraan di bulan Oktober, turun ke level terendah selama 5 bulan.

Dengan laporan ini dan pertumbuhan inflasi yang lemah, investor yakin bahwa Fed akan mengabaikan rencananya untuk menaikkan suku bunga tiga kali selama tahun depan.
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