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  #911  
Old 19-07-2017, 08:22 PM
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STILL THE WEAKEST IN THE BUNCH, POUND TUMBLES AFTER DISAPPOINTING CPI


EUR/USD


Forex News: Despite the overextended condition of price, the pair made another strong push yesterday, approaching 2016’s high at 1.1616. The German ZEW data came very close to forecast and the market remained mostly unaffected.


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Technical Outlook

Most of yesterday’s climb was triggered by US Dollar weakness and the pair now seems headed for last year’s high at 1.1616. The Relative Strength Index has entered overbought territory on a four hour chart, so we expect to see retracements lower once the mentioned resistance is reached, or even before. To the downside the first potential support is located at 1.1490 – 1.1500 but if price climbs to 1.1616 it will not retrace so low probably.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Building Permits will be released at 12:30 pm GMT and will be today’s only notable data. The indicator shows how many permits were issued for the construction of new residential buildings during the previous month and usually strengthens the US Dollar if it posts a higher than expected value, which for today is 1.20 Million.


GBP/USD

The Pound took a big blow from a weaker than expected Consumer Price Index, so the pair posted a huge drop after initially breaking 1.3100 resistance.


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Technical Outlook

The pair was overextended even before the British CPI came out, so this is a classic case of fundamentals in agreement with the technical side, hence the strong drop. We expect the current move to reach the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but keep in mind that the US Dollar is still weak and is taking a beating from most of its counterparts so we cannot rule out a climb above 1.3030 and closer to 1.3100. First important level south is 1.3000 and the way price behaves here will reveal more about the future direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound lacks any important releases, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for price direction.
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  #912  
Old 20-07-2017, 08:24 PM
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FOREX NEWS: PREPARE FOR INCREASED VOLATILITY: ECB INTEREST RATE, BRITISH RETAIL SALES IN THE SPOTLIGHT


EUR/USD


Forex News: After reaching a top at 1.1583, the pair started to retrace lower and most of yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears. The U.S. Building Permits posted a better than anticipated number and this helped the US Dollar to some extent.


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Technical Outlook

The current move down is considered a normal and much needed retracement in an uptrend and once it finds support, we expect to see a bounce higher and a possible trend continuation into last year’s high at 1.1616. Potential support is located around 1.1490 – 1.1500, while the first resistance sits at 1.1580, followed by 1.1616, but keep in mind that today the technical side will be overshadowed by the ECB press conference.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s central focus will be the ECB rate decision, scheduled at 11:45 am GMT and followed by Mario Draghi’s press conference at 12:30 pm GMT. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but the press conference is usually the time when the Euro starts to behave erratically, depending on Draghi’s attitude and answers to journalists’ questions. If he will hint towards some form of QE tapering, we expect to see increased Euro volatility.


GBP/USD

Price action was choppy yesterday and the bears couldn’t continue the momentum started a day before by the weak British CPI. The pair is now trading above and below 1.3030, without clear direction.


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Technical Outlook

The pair is likely to range between 1.3030 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average until the release of the British Retail Sales. The reading for this indicator will probably decide today’s direction and the technical aspect will be secondary. A bullish breakout will make 1.3100 the first target, and a move south will have the 50 EMA as first target, followed by the support at 1.2975.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales come out at 8:30 am GMT and are expected to show a change of 0.4% compared to the previous -1.2%. This is a very important indicator because sales made at retail levels account for the majority of consumer spending, so we expect to see Pound strength if the actual number surpasses analysts’ expectations and Pound weakness if it comes out below forecast.
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  #913  
Old Yesterday, 11:33 PM
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FOREX NEWS: EURO POSTS MASSIVE GAINS, MOVES PAST 2016 HIGH, BACKED BY DRAGHI’S COMMENTS


EUR/USD


Forex News: As the market expected, the ECB maintained its interest rate unchanged but during the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that a hike in autumn is possible. The Euro responded positively to the comments and the pair rebounded from session lows, breaking resistance.


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Technical Outlook

After completing a retracement that almost touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair pushed higher, breaking last year’s high at 1.1616 fuelled by Draghi’s comments. The uptrend is now resumed and the pair is headed for the next resistance located around 1.1700 but it won’t move there in a straight line and pullbacks will most likely occur. For today we expect small bounces to the downside or a ranging session with a bullish bias.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Euro and the US Dollar have a light economic calendar, without any major news releases, so the deciding factor will be the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The pair had a mixed trading session yesterday, first breaking below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then returning to the line. The British Retail Sales came out slightly above expectations but this only created a brief period of volatility.


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Technical Outlook

If the pair will break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside, the outlook will become bullish once again and we will probably see a break of 1.3030, followed by a move into 1.3100 next week. On the other hand, a bounce lower from the 50 EMA will confirm the initial break and will make 1.2900 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic releases for the final trading day of the week, so the technical side will prevail.
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