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  #451  
Old 15-03-2017, 02:21 PM
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017

The USD/CAD pair spent most of yesterday’s trading session on a mostly ranging and consolidating manner, with the currency pair consolidating within the 1.3400-1.3500 region due to the lack of significant economic events from both the US and the Canadian economy. The market is now on a monitoring stance particularly on the USD and this has been reflected in the lack of any kind of activity in the USD/CAD pair.

The market is currently waiting for the onslaught of the release of several economic data from the US tomorrow, with the most important release being the FOMC announcement where the central bank is expected to implement its first interest rate hike for the year. Aside from the FOMC announcement, the CPI data as well as the retail sales data will also be released tomorrow. The high expectations for an interest rate hike tomorrow has helped keep the USD/CAD pair to remain within its range highs. However, the market is not yet sure as to how much hawkishness will be needed for the USD bulls, and this has become somewhat problematic for the USD/CAD pair as the pair has difficulty calculating its move immediately after the FOMC data release.

If the statement from the central bank comes out as satisfyingly hawkish, then the USD could boost its strength and could help the USD/CAD bulls to challenge the sells located at the pair’s 1.3500 barrier. If the data comes out otherwise, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly retreat to its previous trading range. For today’s session, the US economy is expected to release its PPI data which is not expected to induce added volatility into the pair.
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  #452  
Old 15-03-2017, 05:38 PM
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Default GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017

Although the UK economy saw a lot of events and developments during yesterday’s trading session, this has done practically nothing to induce added activity into the GBP/USD pair. A slight bounce occurred in the pair during the previous session but this was automatically met with a selloff, especially since the bounce was somewhat thin and was unable to hold on and prevent the said selloff from occurring. The GBP/USD pair has however managed to surpass 1.2200 points and even managed to reach 1.2250 following market rumors that Theresa May might not be invoking Article 50 within the week. However, since there was no actual confirmation that the invocation would indeed be happening this week, the market became initially confused on the British pound’s rally and the lack of basis to this particular assumption has caused this bounce to eventually die out.

In addition, there have been rumors swirling around that the British government might not accept Scotland’s request to hold an independence referendum, especially since the UK is already neck-deep in uncertainties and another referendum would only cause more disaster for the country’s economy. These series of events has caused the GBP/USD pair to retreat towards 1.2200, where it is currently trading.

For today’s trading session, there are no expected data releases from the UK economy, while the US economy will be releasing its PPI data. However, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate announcement which is set to be released tomorrow. This, in addition to the impending invocation of Article 50, are both expected to keep the GBP/USD pair under pressure in the short term.
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  #453  
Old 15-03-2017, 06:21 PM
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 15, 2017

The USD increased in value as the market anticipates the release of the FOMC rate announcement later today. As a result, the EUR/USD consistently weakened yesterday and has managed to break through 1.0650 points and is currently situated at just above 1.0600 points. A lot of analysts have been saying that the currency pair could possibly consolidate within the 1.0600-1.0700 barrier during the week of the FOMC statement and could possibly maintain its place within the region up until the end of this week.

The expected rate hike this coming March is pretty much secured and what the market will be focusing now is the amount of hawkishness of this particular announcement, and this is where the uncertainty lies. The majority of market players have no idea on just how hawkish the statement should be in order to push the value of the dollar further. Nonetheless, the market expects that there would be some sort of clue on the Federal Reserve’s next move and if possible, hints on the next scheduled interest rate hike from the central bank. Of course, it would definitely be good news for the market if the statement outwardly gives out clues of the next rate hike, but then again the central bank is not known for such moves and could possibly state that the schedule of the subsequent rate hikes would depend on the status of various economic data in the future.

The volatility of the EUR/USD pair could possibly be increased by the release of the CPI index data and the retail sales data. The currency pair could possibly drop to 1.0600 points and could even reach 1.0580 for a short period if the data comes out as positive.
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  #454  
Old 17-03-2017, 04:11 PM
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 17, 2017

The market mainly focused on the meeting of the Bank of England about its monetary policy decision. Investors anticipate that regulator will keep an unchanged rate and does not assume any other surprising events.

The market became bearish yesterday. Investors believe that the sterling should be lifted on top of 1.2300. The major stayed near the barrier and moved downwards during the first part of the day. The Cable preserved an ask tone throughout the day.

According to the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD broke the 50-EMA and tested 100-EMA afterwards. At the same, the 100 and 200-EMAs drove lower while the 50-EMA came in neutral.
Resistance is found at 1.2300 level, support is at 1.2200.

The histogram made its entry to the positive territory. Upon maintaining this position the buyer’s strength will increase. The RSI consolidated alongside the overbought readings.
Moving downwards near the 1.2200 level would the be the next possible scenario.
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  #455  
Old 20-03-2017, 05:29 PM
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017

There is no expected economic release scheduled from the Australian dollar on Friday. Investors were in a wait-and-see mode for the RBA Meeting minutes scheduled on Tuesday. Moreover, the offered tone near the greenbacks provided strength for the Aussie.

Buyers found a hurdle around 0.7700 but needed to leave off their gains.The major rebounded and stalled on top of 0.7660.

A bout of renewed buying pressure came up during Friday’s Asian session. The AUD/USD were pulled back by the buyers towards 0.7700 removing its current losses.

The 4-hour chart determines the price continuously develop above the moving averages as the 200 and 50-EMA directed higher while 100-EMA seems neutral. Resistance entered 0.7700 level, support holds 0.7650 mark.

The histogram preserved in the same region favoring buyer’s strength. RSI indicator is situated close to the overvalued area which confirms another move lower.

After making a gap on top of 0.7700, the next will be 0.7750. Failure to post its fresh gains could possibly occur some profit taking. The AUD would likely weaken reaching 0.7600-0.7620.
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  #456  
Old 21-03-2017, 01:09 PM
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Default GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017

The upside bias continued to exist until Friday. Buyers stalled its activity during the night. Moreover, the night correction was considered as a profit-taking action of buyers who failure to hold its place.

Bulls became active in the morning trades pushing the major near 1.2400 region and slowed down further. In line with the presentation of the 4-hour chart, the price cross above the 100-EMA and confined under the 200-EMA. Meanwhile, the 200 and 100-EMAs remained to be in a bearish pattern, 50-EMA directed up as mentioned in the chart. Resistance highlighted 1.2400, support entered 1.2300.

MACD indicator strengthened confirming for a buy signal. The RSI consolidated around the positive area.

Should the GBP/USD pair accomplish to breakout from the 1.2400 mark, the next focus is 1.2500 resistance region. However, there is an outside chance for a move on top of 1.2400 due to an overbought condition. Due to this probable scenario, the Cable is expected to reverse at 1.2300.
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  #457  
Old 21-03-2017, 01:45 PM
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017

The Eurozone Trade Balance, particularly in Italy, presented negative results. While the greenbacks sentiment remained to be a major driver of the markets. The US dollar kept its stance near its lows on the back of slightly hawkish remarks of J. Yellen.

The common European currency spiked amid the post session of New York last Thursday. The buyers lead the price higher and broke the level 1.0750. On one side, bulls successfully edged higher towards 1.0770 in the latter part of the day and decided to stop.

The spot kept intact in a narrow range over the 1.0750 region. The neutral position was preserved amid morning session.

The 4-hour chart presented the price to develop beyond the moving averages, as the 50-EMA showed an upward crossover to the 200-EMA. The 50 and 100-EMAs advanced upwards while 200-EMA is found neutral. Resistance is at 1.0800, support lies at 1.0750.

The MACD histogram increased which suggested a buy signal. RSI have seen consolidated within the positive zone.

It is expected that the outlook, in general, will remain to be bullish due to ascending trend en route 1.0800. Nevertheless, there still a possibility of reversal towards 1.0720-1.0700.
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  #458  
Old 21-03-2017, 06:50 PM
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Default USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 21, 2017

The USD/CAD pair merely continued its weak trading streak within a limited trading range as the currency pair awaits clues on its price action as dictated by its fundamental indicators. Previously, the USD/CAD pair had already dropped in value last week following the FOMC rate statement, which disappointed investors in general, and since then the currency pair has been unable to make any significant progress and if the pair does move forward, it will be more of a consolidation in order to recover its recent losses than any move towards a definite direction.

The USD/CAD is currently trading at just over 1.3350 points, with the market expecting the currency pair to consolidate within the 1.3300-1.3400 region. The pair is expected to return to its wider trading range and could possibly reach 1.3000 points in the near future. The USD/CAD pair, along with other major currency pairs, are expected to consolidate within a much higher range in spite of their collectively high volatility levels.

The Canadian economy has been consistently releasing a slew of positive economic data, and this is expected to be very good news for the Canadian dollar and could cause the USD/CAD pair to retreat to 1.3000 points. For today’s session, Canada will be releasing its core retail sales data, which will be closely monitored by market players as this will be an important gauge on the overall health of the Canadian economy. If the data meets market expectations, then the USD/CAD pair could retreat towards 1.3300 points and could be poised for more retractions depending on the strength of the said retail sales data.
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  #459  
Old 22-03-2017, 06:00 PM
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was able to move towards 1.0800 points, with the currency pair managing to stay at over 1.0800 for a brief period. However, since the pair has not yet managed to make a clean breakthrough at this very tough barrier since it only momentarily peeked over this level, the pair’s surge was eventually met with large selling and had no choice but to retreat at just under 1.0800 points.

However, in spite of this particular occurrence, the EUR/USD pair is still trading on a somewhat stronger note, thanks to the pair’s bulls who continue to trade on a strong streak. The EUR/USD pair’s move at under 1.0800 now seems as just more of a correction as the pair’s price are still well-maintained within its range highs. This is why the currency pair might give another shot at surpassing the 1.0800 barrier for today, especially since the forthcoming French polls might have Macron as its next President after all. This is a sigh of relief especially for the EUR currency, since Le Pen, Macron’s opponent, is a widely-known critic of the euro currency. In addition, the pairs bulls are getting a lot of encouragement from the very bullish stance of the ECB, who recently stated that the strength of the euro can be mostly attributed to an improvement in the EU economy. The USD has also been struggling to make significant gains in spite of the recent rate hike and there is a very definite possibility that the pair could possibly move towards 1.1000 points once makes a clean break through 1.0850 points.

There are no major news from both the EU and the US economy for today, and this is why the EUR/USD pair might again attempt to break through its barrier. Traders could opt to wait whether the currency pair is able to surpass 1.0850 during the course of the day.
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  #460  
Old 22-03-2017, 06:47 PM
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Default GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017

The GBP/USD pair has been consistently making its way towards 1.2500 points and it looks like the pair’s bulls are more determined than ever to break through this particular range. As of the moment, the GBP/USD pair is now trading at just beneath 1.2500 points and is bracing itself once the currency pair pushes past 1.2500 points, where it is expected to be met with a lot of sells. The bulls must be able to weather these large-scale selloffs in order for the currency pair to go past this particular barrier.

The UK economy released its inflation data yesterday with a reading of 2.3% going well beyond the initial market expectations. This, along with one of the BoE officials voting for a rate hike just goes to show that the Bank of England’s data and policy seem to be in sync, thereby causing the sterling pound to increase in value. However, now that the GBP/USD pair as well as the euro are both in a very critical situation, the market is waiting whether the currency bulls would be able to break through these respective regions.

However, the positive bearing of the sterling pound does not mean that the currency does not run any risks. We still have the nearing invocation of Article 50 as well as Scotland’s recent demand for an independence referendum, although the market has chosen not to focus on these and instead focus on the weakness of the USD. There are no major news releases coming from both the US and UK economy for today and so the market will be focusing instead on the battle at the 1.2500 barrier, with the market focusing on whether the currency pair will be finally making it through this section or weaken eventually and resort to some more consolidation for the rest of the trading day.
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