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  #231  
Old 08-09-2017, 08:27 PM
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Global macro overview for 08/09/2017

The first negative effect of Hurricane Harvey is seen on the US job market. The recent Unemployment Claims data were substantially worse than expected. Market participants anticipated a slight increase in the number of the unemployed people in the US from 236k to 245k, but he number revealed was at the level of 298k. It was the highest reading since April 2015 while it was the largest weekly increase since 2012. The numbers of claims in Texas rose by over 50k on the week to above 63k. Continuing Claims data in the week ending August 26th were released at 1.94mln from 1.95mln and has remained below 2.00mln for over four months.

Before the storm, the Unemployment Claims figures had been consistent with an improving labor market picture, but the Hurricane Harvey will cause swings in broader US economic data. Employment may be depressed initially until rebuilding and recovery efforts in flooded areas around Houston take hold.The biggest impact in job market might be noticed in qualified workers sector as this particular part of US job market had kept the underlying trend in claims applications low. On the bright side, post-Harvey reports on manufacturing and services highlighted a solid demand for labor, which might, in turn, underpin consumer spending (the biggest contributor to the US GDP).

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has hit the important technical support at the level of 107.53 despite the fact it is trading in oversold conditions. This level might be a key level for the bulls, so it is worth to keep an eye on any impulsive rebound towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 108.27 and above. No signs of bullish divergence are present yet.



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  #232  
Old 08-09-2017, 08:47 PM
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The USD/JPY has dropped by at least, 220 pips this week, leading to a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price is now below the supply level at 108.00, going towards the demand level at 107.50 (which may be breached to the downside soon). The southward movement is made possible by the weakness in USD as well as the stamina in JPY. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50, portending continual selling pressure.


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  #233  
Old 08-09-2017, 08:49 PM
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On Thursday, the Japanese yen came under double pressure from the dollar along with its own Japanese economic indicators. The leading economic indicators index for July gained -0.7% (105 vs 105.9), the previous value was revised from 1.7% to 1.0%. The coincident indicator dropped by 1.2%. The yen lost 76 points. The GDP for the second quarter and bank lending came in worse than expected this morning. The final estimate of GDP decreased from 4.0% YoY, against the forecast of 2.9% YoY to 2.5% YoY. Lending declined from 3.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY. The trade balance of China also declined in August, as forecast showed a decrease from $46.73 billion to $41.99 billion, with an expected increase to $48.60 billion. Exports in China fell from 7.2% YoY to 5.5% YoY, against the forecast at 6.0%.

The growth on Japan's balance of payments is considered a positive factor, from 1.52 trillion yen to 2.03 trillion yen, versus the forecast of 1.65 trillion yen. Despite the drop in figures of Asian stock indices (Nikkei 225 -0.46%, S & P / ASX 200 -0.48%, Kospi SEU -0.14%), Chinese and Indian indices are growing (Shanghai Composite 0.24%, Nifty 50 0.30 %), that relieved many investors. In the US, there are no fears regarding the stock market fall, as we await for its growth today on positive data. The political situation is under control, the consequences of hurricanes as of this moment, at least, have time to be absorbed by the markets. There is a possibility of decline eventually, in case of a drop in economic indices.

There is a struggle in the range of 108.05 / 25, either a dip below or a sharp exit up is not expected. The minimum task is to strengthen in the range of 108.25 / 70.


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  #234  
Old 08-09-2017, 08:58 PM
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Fractal analysis for USD/JPY pairs as of September 8


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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 109.39, 108.91, 108.59, 108.36, 107.94, 107.52, 107.01 and 106.67. Here, we determined the subsequent goals for the downward movement from the local structure on September 6. Continued downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 107.94. In this case, the target is 107.52. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of the level of 107.50 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 107.01. Potential value for the bottom is the level of 106.67, upon reaching which we expect a rollback upward.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 108.36 - 108.59. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.91. This level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will lead to the creation of potential for the milestone. Here, the target is 109.39.

The main trend is a local structure for the bottom of September 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.36 Take profit: 108.57

Buy: 108.62 Take profit: 108.90

Sell: 107.92 Take profit: 107.05

Sell: 106.98 Take profit: 106.67
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  #235  
Old 08-09-2017, 09:04 PM
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 08, 2017


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USD/JPY is under pressure and expected to prevail its downside movement. The pair is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is bearish and calls for a further decline

Hence, as long as 108.50 holds on the upside, look for a further decline to 107.35 and even to 107.00 in extension. Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 108.50 with a target at 109.40.

Chart Explanation:

The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 108.50, Take Profit: 107.35

Resistance levels: 109.40, 109.80, and 110.35

Support Levels: 107.35, 107.00, 106.40
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  #236  
Old 08-09-2017, 09:06 PM
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 08, 2017


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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Final GDP Price Index y/y, Current Account, Bank Lending y/y, and Final GDP q/q data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Consumer Credit m/m and Final Wholesale Inventories m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 108.92. Resistance. 2: 108.71. Resistance. 1: 108.50.

Support. 1: 108.24. Support. 2: 108.02. Support. 3: 107.81.
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  #237  
Old 08-09-2017, 09:14 PM
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USD/JPY bouncing nicely above support, remain bullish for a push up

The price has started to bounce up nicely from our major support level at 108.04 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, channel support). We expect a strong bounce from this level to push the price up to at least 109.38 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong support above 3.4% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Buy above 108.04. Stop loss is at 107.81. Take profit is at 109.38.


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  #238  
Old 12-09-2017, 11:36 PM
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USD/JPY: This market opened this week with a minor gap and then shot skywards, thus threatening the recent bearishness in the market. Since the outlook on the market is bullish for this week, it is expected that price would continue going upward, reaching the supply levels at 110.00, 110.50, and 111.00 within the next few trading days.


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  #239  
Old 14-09-2017, 12:23 AM
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 13, 2017


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Our initial target which we predicted in our previous analysis has been hit. USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 109.70. The pair is supported by the rising trend line since September 8, which confirmed a positive outlook. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for a new upside.

Hence, as long as 109.70 is not broken, look for another advance to 110.40 and even to 110.90. Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 109.70 with a target at 109.25.

Chart Explanation:

The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 109.70, Take Profit: 110.40

Resistance levels: 110.40, 110.90, and 111.35

Support Levels: 109.25, 108.80, 108.30
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  #240  
Old 15-09-2017, 12:02 AM
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Wave analysis of the USD / JPY currency pair for September 14, 2017


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Analysis of wave counting:

After an unsuccessful attempt to secure the level below the 110th figure, the USD/JPY pair resumed the upward movement during the second half of yesterday's trading. By the end of the day, it exceeded the highest level attained on August 31. At the same time, it can be assumed that the currency pair still completed the formation of the wave e, and it will form a complex correction triangle on the 2nd wave (or B ), in C, in E, in ( B ). If this is the case, the currency pair might start to decline from the highest level on the previous day and designate the beginning of the 3rd wave (or C ), in C, in E, in (B ), as indicated by a rather strong divergence on the MACD indicator.

Targets for a downward wave option:

107.00 - 106.00

Goals for the option with an upward wave:

111.00 - 112.00

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The tool continues to build the wave C, in E, and in ( B ). The assumed wave 2 or ( B), in C , in E , in ( B ) have complicated its internal wave structure and will continue to increase within its internal wave e with a target towards 111 figures. In the framework of the construction of the downward wave 3 (or C ), in C , in E , in ( B ), a resumption of the decline of quotations is expected in the near future targeting below 107 figures.
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