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  #1691  
Old 12-09-2017, 11:43 PM
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Global macro overview for 12/09/2017: The Australian NAB Business Confidence data decreased unexpectedly in August. According to the National Australia Bank survey (a survey of the current state of the business sector in Australia based on a pool of hundreds of small and large sized companies), the index deteriorated from 12 to 5, while market participants expected a number of 10 to be delivered in the reported month. This reading is the weakest one in 2017, indicating the biggest concerns surrounding government policy, consumer demand as well as both wages and energy cost pressures. Moreover, the report showed most industries performed well, while retail sectors conditions continued to stay on negative territory. However, NAB also highlighted that the retail price index dipped into negative territory after steady falls in recent months. This trend is set to be watched closely to determine further growth trends: "We will be watching this trend closely as household consumption is a notable point of difference between our relatively subdued growth outlook and the RBA's more sanguine forecasts," NAB said in the official report. In conclusion, after a one month of data is hard to anticipate much into it. The index still holds close to the multi-year highs and only a further deterioration in sentiment below the zero level would change the outlook for more negative. Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price had deteriorated recently from the multi-month highs at the level of 0.8125 and now is back in the congestion zone. Nevertheless, as long as the golden trend line is not clearly violated (around 61% Fibo support at 0.7928) the short-term outlook remains bullish.


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  #1692  
Old 12-09-2017, 11:45 PM
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Global macro overview for 12/09/2017: The US public debt just passed $20 trillion for the first time in history. According to data released by the Treasury Department, US public debt is already $20,162,177,774,904.13 (twenty trillion one hundred sixty-two billion one hundred seventy-six million seven hundred ninety-seven thousand nine hundred four hundred and thirteen cents). Just a six months ago the US debt surpassed $19 trillion, so the pace of indebting the country is surprisingly fast. This amount consists of government debt ($5,539,515,584,857.14) and in the hands of other entities ($14,622,661,213,046.99), for example, domestic and foreign individual and institutional investors. In relation to GDP, US debt is close to 104%. US public debt growth accelerated after the financial crisis began, and Barack Obama moved to the White House. Since January 20, 2009, when the 44th president took office, until Donald Trump's takeover of the cabinet, US debt grew by a nominal $ 9.32 trillion, up 87.7 %. For comparison, during the presidency of George W. Bush, 4.89 trillion (+85.5%) came from the debt count, while the total of 42 presidents gained only $5.72 trillion. It is worth to add that since the inauguration of Donald Trump (January 20, 2017), US debt has increased by 1.1% only. Of course, such situation is due to not only an excessive inclination to reach the public money, but also a radical decline in the purchasing power of the US Dollar. Even based on the imperfect CPI indicator, it can be calculated that one dollar in 1913 had a purchasing power comparable to today's $25. Last Friday Donald Trump agreed to the Democrats' proposal and postponed a deadline to raise the federal government's debt ceiling until December 15. By doing this, Trump's administration avoided the "government shutdown" procedure again but did not resolve the public debt problem. Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The bounce from the oversold market conditions wasn't so far strong enough to break out above the golden trend line resistance and the upward momentum starts to diminishing again. The next immediate support for the bulls is seen at the level of 91.62, but as long as the level of 92.54 is not clearly violated, the bears remain in control over this market.


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  #1693  
Old 13-09-2017, 10:47 PM
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Euro has a chance for growth
Yesterday, the European currency managed to recover its positions paired with the US dollar on the background of the absence of important fundamental data. The euro could be supported by statements of ECB officials. In the second half of the day, data showed that the index of optimism among small businesses is weak. According to the report of the National Federation of Independent Business, the index of optimism in small businesses in the U.S. rose by 0.1 points in August to 105.3 points. Economists had expected the index to drop to 104.8 points. A good indicator for the economy is an increase in the average income of citizens. According to the report, the average household income grew by 3.2% in 2016 compared to 2015, to $59, 039. Statements made by the US Treasury did not support the US dollar. Mnuchin underlined that the tax rate for companies will be at a competitive level, while not giving the exact figures. According to the Minister of Finance, the new tax bill will be ready this year. It should be noted that one of Donald Trump's pre-election promises was to formulate a tax legislation to reduce the burden on small and medium-sized businesses, as well as in the profit of enterprises and companies from abroad. Statements by the vice-president of the Central Bank, Vitor Constancio, supported the euro in the afternoon. Despite the fact that, in his opinion, the proper degree of soft monetary policy allowed the European Central Bank to achieve its goal, Constancio believes that negative interest rates need to be closely monitored and at the first signs of its negative effect the cost of borrowing needs to be increased. As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, today buyers of risky assets have a real chance to return to monthly highs. To do this, one needs to stabilized at the level of 1.1990, which will open a good opportunity for a more stronger upward movement with the update to 1.2030 and exit to a high of 1.2090, where sellers will try their best to form a double high. If it does get stronger above 1.1990, and the data on the US producer price index will be even better than economists' forecasts, the demand for the US dollar will again increase significantly, which will lead to a larger downward trend in the support area of 1.1880.


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  #1694  
Old 13-09-2017, 10:48 PM
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Global macro overview for 13/09/2017: The US JOLTS job-openings data increased to fresh record highs in July. According to the US government agency, JOLTS job-openings rose to 6.17mn from a revised 6.12mn the previous month. The data was above consensus expectations of 6.00mn and a fresh record high for the data series. The biggest growth was noticed in trade and support sectors and the decline was noted in manufacturing jobs. The US job market remains strong and confident. The quits rate, a good measure of how confident workers are in the current labor market, inched up 0.1pp to 2.2%, matching its post-recession high. The layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged from June at 1.2%, indicating low levels of involuntary separations. Nevertheless, the upcoming labor market readings are expected to deteriorate due to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma hindering activity in recent weeks. The scale of the damage done to the US economy can only be roughly estimated at the time of writing, but many analysts say it will be devastating to US GDP. It will definitely influence the US labour market in the form of increase of joblessness claims. Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. After a bounce from the level of 107.30, the price rallied toward the technical resistance at the level of 109.84. However, the key technical resistance zone between the levels of 110.61 - 111.04 is still not violated. The market conditions are overbought on this time frame and internal correction is now due. First technical support is seen at the level of 109.84 and 109.41.


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  #1695  
Old 13-09-2017, 10:49 PM
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Global macro overview for 13/09/2017: High expectations for the British Pound ahead of BoE interest rate decision are still being the main theme for all GBP traders. Yesterday, the UK Office for National Statistics revealed that UK CPI was stronger-than-expected and the growth rate was 2.9% in August, up from an increase of 2.6% in the preceding month. The country's consumer prices growth has been the strongest since the decision to quit the European Union as Brexit kept pushing up the living cost in the UK. Higher costs of fuels as well as a strong rise in clothing and footwear prices, contributed most to the growth, as retailers passed cost pressures straight to customers. Today's UK job market data were worse than expected, except the unemployment rate that declined to 42 years low at the level of 4.3%. Nevertheless, the number of individuals who are out of work and who are claiming some sort of unemployment benefit increased 2.8k and average earnings increased only 2.1% instead of expected 2.3%. The absence of wage pressure is taking away the hawkish ammunition in the Bank of England and reducing the chances of a positive tone in tomorrow's BoE message. However, it is doubtful that investors will completely abandon their hopes for tomorrow's decision, so the GBP may be off for a deeper correction. Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is trading below all of the moving averages, but managed to bounce from the important technical support zone between the levels of 0.8982 - 0.9007. The market conditions are now oversold and some kind of a corrective move is expected towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 0.9050 - 0.9061.


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  #1696  
Old 14-09-2017, 11:44 PM
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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for September 14, 2017

EUR/GBP has been impulsively bearish after bouncing off the resistance level of 0.9267 recently. GBP has been the dominant side of this pair whereas due to mixed economic reports EUR could not refrain from the drastic fall. Today, the Bnak of England released the statement with the policy decision to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected. The Asset Purchase Facility report was also published unchanged as expected at 435B and MPC Official Bank Rate votes were published as expected at 2-0-7 from the previous figure of 2-0-6. Besides, the Monetary Policy Summary was quite hawkish as well that helped the currency to gain more momentum and create pressure over EUR today. On the other hand, today French Final CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 0.5%, which did not quite help the currency to show some strength over GBP today. As a result GBP is expected to dominate further. GBP is currently expected to gain more in the coming days against EUR until the eurozone comes up with better high impact economic reports to push the price higher again. Now let us look at the technical chart. The price recently reached the support area of 0.8850 – 0.8950. If the price shows a daily close today above the least support of 0.8850, we can expected a further bullish move in the coming days with a target towards 0.9267 again. On the other hand, if the price breaks below 0.8850 with a daily close in the coming days, then we will consider sell positions with a target towards the 0.8530 support level. As the price remains above the support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.


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  #1697  
Old 14-09-2017, 11:45 PM
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Global macro overview for 14/09/2017

The better than expected data from the Australian job market contributed to strengthening of the AUD on Wednesday morning. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the country's unemployment rate remained at the 5.6% level in line with expectations. Moreover, the job market added 54.2k new positions in August, while analysts anticipated only a 17.4k gain. It was the sixth straight month of gains as employers continued to add payrolls at a faster pace. The number of full-time jobs rose by over 40k, following a revised drop of 19k the month before, part-time jobs by rose by 14k.

The Australian economy is still far to reach full employment, with the main concern being low wage growth, which refrains consumer confidence. The recent statements from Reserve Bank of Australia member Ian Harper have limited the hawkish enthusiasm represented by Governor Philip Lowe. Harper stated that domestic growth remained too weak for a near-term interest rate rise.Nevertheless, the recent set of data might well increase speculations that record-low Australian interest rates may be lifted sooner than the end of 2018, which is when futures markets currently suspect that a move will come.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price had deteriorated recently from the multi-month highs at the level of 0.8125 and now is back in the congestion zone. Nevertheless, as long as the golden trend line is not clearly violated (around 61% Fibo support at 0.7928) the short-term outlook remains bullish.


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  #1698  
Old 14-09-2017, 11:48 PM
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Dollar tired of his own weakness

The dollar approached the major day of the week with an impressive increase in optimism. A sharp decrease in political tension and the extension of the government's financing period for 3 months are adequate enough to exhibit signs of changes in sentiment regarding the prospects for the world's major currency.

On the eve of US President talks, Trump held talks with Democrats which is skillfully disguised as a friendly dinner. Apparently, the draft tax reform has passed preliminary approval that has significantly increased the chances of passing it in the Congress. According to CME, The market reacted instantly since there is a probability of an increase in the rate in December rose to 47% that clearly showed a change in mood.

Meanwhile, it seems that the actual macroeconomic indicators are not convincing enough. The producer price index in August rose since May which supports the price recovery after the failure but still did not impress the market. Prices rose by 2.4% year-on-year, which is significantly higher than July's 1.9% but below market expectations of 2.5%. Therefore, growth again appears insufficient to justify inflationary expectations.


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Today, a report on consumer inflation in August will be published while the forecasts are neutral. Experts do not expect a noticeable increase in the July report instead, it is assumed that the inflation remains below the long-term average and below the target set by the Fed. Before the key autumn meeting of the Fed that will happen in less than a week, the data on inflation will significantly affect the mood of investors. Published on the eve of the business optimism index from NFIB, it showed that small business still expects a successful start on reforms. The data of the index showed a slight increase to 105.3 in August, against 105.2 a month earlier. Also, it holds near the maximum set immediately after the victory of Donald Trump elections last November.

The issue of reforms does not only concern Trump, but for the economy as a whole. The fact that Congress agreed to raise the ceiling on the national debt is an indicator of the uncoordinated position of Republicans and Democrats. A countermeasure were enforced whose goal is not to allow a government default and have time to consider and adopt a plan of action for reforming the economy in the next three months.

The fact that things are not going as they wanted can be observed from the dynamics of freight traffic across the United States. As follows from the data provided by the American Association of Railways, the volume of freight traffic this year barely exceeds the level of 2016 and significantly lags behind the two previous years.

Exchange Rates 14.09.2017 analysis


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The real economy looks weak which is not a secret for Trump, for the Fed and for Congress. In place of monetary stimulus measures, fiscal stimulus must be introduced. Hence, the warring parties in Washington are ready to sit at the negotiating table but at least the events of the last week clearly indicate progress on a number of key issues.

In fact, the dollar bulls were waiting for this particular moment. If it turns out that consumer inflation has a positive momentum today, the dollar will react to a sharp increase, as the market decides that the weakening of the trend is about to end.

Reports on retail sales and industrial production in August will be published on Friday. The forecasts confirm the conclusion that the expected weak figures of the experts for both groups of data will affect the deterioration of consumer sentiment in the end. In fact, there is less time for fluctuations, but one must assume that the market as a whole has already played out both excessive expectations for Fed's monetary policy tightening and the real weakness of the American economy. The dollar weakened for 8 consecutive months and now, it's time for positive news which will help turn global expectations.

Nevertheless, the dollar will not show confident movement before the meeting of the Fed on September 20 and it will most likely spend the remaining days in a wide range. Strong volatility is possible and the direction the market will be determined not earlier than a week.
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  #1699  
Old 14-09-2017, 11:49 PM
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Global macro overview for 14/09/2017:

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) leaves the interest rated unchanged at the level of -0.75% as expected. In the Monetary Policy Statement, SNB said that the Swiss Franc remains highly valued and the situation on FX market is still fragile. The SNB will remain active in the currency market while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. Moreover, SNB will continue to monitor the situation in mortgage and property markets as imbalances on mortgage and real estate markets persist.

In the statement the bank changed its assessment of the Franc's position, which is no longer "significantly overvalued", but "remains highly valued". This is an important change in the rhetoric as the SNB is trying to prevent the Franc appreciation in order to "reduce the attractiveness of Swiss Franc investments and thus ease pressure on the currency." The SNB conditional inflation forecast has been slightly revised upwards compared to June statement. For the current year, the forecast has risen marginally to 0.4%, from 0.3% in the previous quarter. For 2018, too, the SNB anticipates an inflation rate of 0.4% compared to 0.3% last quarter. For 2019, it now expects inflation of 1.1% compared to 1.0% last quarter.

In conclusion, the SNB is following the path of the ECB as it is hesitating yet to hike the interest rate from the negative territory to the positive one despite the mounting inflationary pressures and renewed higher projections. Nevertheless, as soon as the ECB will finally hike the interest rate or become more hawkish in the statements, then the SNB will definitely follow, causing a massive Franc's appreciation.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CHF technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market reaction to the interest rate decision is limited so far, but the price of EUR/CHF is moving north. Nevertheless, the market is still trading inside of the range zone between the levels of 1.1255 - 1.1538 with the momentum indicator hovering around its fifty level. As long as any of the important levels are not violated, the price remains range bound.


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  #1700  
Old 15-09-2017, 03:15 PM
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Fed will not help the dollar

Encouraged by hopes of stimulating the US economy under the influence of Donald Trump's stimulating programs, the "bears" of the EUR/USD pair went into a counter-attack. The consequences of hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma" were not as terrible as initially expected. Besides, history shows that "Katrina" was stronger against the two, at a time when the Fed raised the federal funds rate in 2005. Natural disasters are temporary and in the end the result of the restoration work can benefit the GDP. Simultaneously, the idea of tax reform, which in late 2016 pushed up the USD index, has returned to the market. Judging by the comments of the Republicans, the bill on changes in the taxation system will become public for a week by September 25. Up to this point, one can only guess at the basic provisions of the reform and how far it will spread in the American economy. The president only hinted that the rich should not expect special preferences, which contrasts with previous statements about the reduction of corporate tax and real estate tax. However, the fact that Trump changes his mind like a glove, throughout it should be expected. The rise in US GDP growth rate entails a more rapid tightening of the monetary policy by the Fed, compared with what the markets are currently waiting for. While the regulator is concerned about inflation, it must be understood that conditions are constantly changing. If in the 1970s, its average level was 7.1%, in the 1980s - 5.6%, in 1990 - 3%, in the 2000s - 2.6%, but now it is below the 2% mark. The liability is globalization and new technologies that increase competition and force producers to cut prices. In correlation with this, raising the federal funds rate to 3-3.5% or higher, as it was before, is not necessary. The cycle of monetary restriction of the Fed can be completed much earlier, and the realization of this fact will attract new sellers of the US dollar to the market. Dynamics of inflation and federal funds rates


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Source: Trading Economics. The outlook for the euro, on the contrary, appears optimistic. In fact, due to the lag in the economic cycle in the eurozone compared to the United States, the ECB is at the same pace as the Fed in 2014. The European Central Bank is ready to normalize monetary policy, and the current EUR/USD pair correction only increases the likelihood of it. In October, Mario Draghi will report on the curtailment of the quantitative easing program. This will be a new occasion to buy the euro. It should be noted that during its last cycle of tightening monetary policy in 2005-2008, the regional currency strengthened against the US dollar by 30%, and if history repeats itself, the current +13% is just the beginning. In this regard, it makes sense for traders to stick to the previous strategy in the main currency pair - buying on payoffs. Technically, the inability of bulls to move prices above the target by 161.8% on the AB = CD pattern indicates their weakness. The formation of the double vertex increases the correction risks in the direction of at least the lower boundary of the upstream trading channel. EUR/USD, daily chart


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