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  #1  
Old 12-07-2017, 08:18 PM
mazri_2008 mazri_2008 is offline
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Default Crude/Brent Oil : Daily Technical And Fundamental Analysis By INSTAFOREX

Technical Analysis of the Crude Oil for July 12, 2017

4-hour timeframe



Analysis:


Analysis of crude oil for July 12 shows that the price resumed its upward movement, after failing to break the first support level (S1).

Trading recommendations: In the course of the oil price movement analysis, it can be concluded that purchasing of orders with targets of 46.09 and 47.44 are now possible.

When entering a transaction between 80 to 130 profitability points, it is recommended to transfer the open transaction to break even.

Aside from the technical aspect, traders should also consider the fundamental data and their scheduled releases.

Explanation of illustration:

Awesome Oscillator - red and green bars in the indicators window.

OsMA - gray bars in the indicators window.

Trend lines - blue lines.

Support and Resistance - the red horizontal line.
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  #2  
Old 12-07-2017, 08:23 PM
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Crude Oil close to 61%Fibo level The price of Crude Oil has hit the 61%Fibo at the level of $45.90 after the API Inventories data release yesterday ( -8100k decrease in stockpiles).

The price is continuing its bounce from the $43 zone, but the market conditions are starting to look overbought. In a case of a failure here, the next technical support is seen at the level of $45.64 and $45.58.


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Old 12-07-2017, 08:29 PM
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Oil Giants Face Rating Cuts Amid Sluggish Recovery- Report



Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and other major oil companies could experience a downgrade in their credit rating once more if they do not manage to reduce costs and address their increasing debt in 2018, an S&P Global Ratings report stated.

The biggest crude drillers failed to gain from the high prices in the boom years ahead of 2014 to lessen their debt loads, according to the report. Instead, they chose to invest in costly new projects and dividends, leaving them vulnerable to a sharp downturn that followed.

Now, a sluggish recovery in oil prices is making it more difficult to lower the debt that has been incurred in the recent years. Last year, Exxon lost its platinum credit rating it held since the Great Depression and all of its largest competitors, such as Total, BP, and Royal Dutch Shell also experienced the same downgrades.

The U.S. benchmark, WTI crude futures, traded near $44 per barrel in New York. According to the director of corporate ratings for commodities at S&P, the modest enhancement in oil prices this year reflects the effort by OPEC and Russia to lower production.
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Old 12-07-2017, 08:39 PM
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Oil Surges on U.S. Inventory Drawdown, Lower Output Prospects



Crude prices rallied by more than 1.5 percent, continuing gains from the prior day as the U.S. government lowered its oil production outlook for 2018 and as fuel stockpiles sharply fell. Brent crude futures rose by 7 cents or 1.6 percent at $48.28 per barrel, while the U.S.

WTI crude futures traded up 78 cents or 1.7 percent at $45.82 per barrel. Both benchmark contracts ended at around 1.4 percent up in the previous day. According to analysts, the oil price sharply increased overnight as the EIA slashed its projections for U.S. production next year and API data reported another large inventory drawdown.

U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 8.1 million barrels in the week ended July 7, bringing it down to 495.6 million, according to the API, an indication that a persistent fuel oversupply is beginning to ease.

Another factor that drove up oil prices is the U.S. EAI's lowered projections for crude production. It estimates output will rise to 9.9 million bpd from 9.3 million bpd this year, marking a 570, 00 bpd gain. The figures are lower than the previous month's projection of a 680,000 bpd annual increase.
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Old 12-07-2017, 08:44 PM
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Brent Returns to Bears

Investors in the oil market were initially thrown into the heat then to the cold. Brent and WTI marked an 8-day rally, then dropped for six days in a row.

Stabilizing the situation supported rumors on the dissatisfaction of OPEC members with the production growth of Libya and Nigeria, who were exempted from obligations, that reduced the volume of planned oil output by a third to the balance of the scale of production cuts.

A critical decision on these countries will be taken at the end of July in Moscow, but Goldman Sachs argues that it will not be able to support oil. In order for WTI to not collapse below $40 per barrel, we need a new cut from the group, which is currently not being discussed.

Looking at the movement of the futures of both varieties, it appears that the "bears" have yet to dominate. Oil poorly responded to positive news and quickly fell into the negative.

In this respect, Thomson Reuters reported growth in OPEC exports to 25.92 million barrels per day in June, up by 450,000 bpd from May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier, became the catalyst for sales.

However, a much greater impact came from the report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in which, along with the reduction in inventories, there was room for news on the rise of overall production to 9.34 million bbls. The decline at the end of last week was seen as a temporary event, which allowed the "bears" on Brent and WTI to go on another attack.

Looking at the movement of the futures of both varieties, it appears that the "bears" have yet to dominate. Oil poorly responded to positive news and quickly fell into the negative. In this respect, Thomson Reuters reported growth in OPEC exports to 25.92 million barrels per day in June, up by 450,000 bpd from May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier, became the catalyst for sales.

However, a much greater impact came from the report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in which, along with the reduction in inventories, there was room for news on the rise of overall production to 9.34 million bbls. The decline at the end of last week was seen as a temporary event, which allowed the "bears" on Brent and WTI to go on another attack.

It just so happened that the supply is currently on the US side, which miraculously survived due to OPEC's decision to cut production at the end of 2016. Bank of America Merrill Lynch claims that every dollar is equivalent to 100,000 bbls.

That is, if WTI will climb to $1, then US companies will increase oil production by 100,000 bbls, if it falls by $1, then production will drop by the same amount.

Thus, the fall in oil prices to $40 per barrel will result in a decline in the figure to 9.6 million bbls in 2017 (EIA predicts it will be 10 million bbls), and the growth of futures prices for the Texas grade to $70 will raise production to 12.1 million bbls. Would it be able to withstand the OPEC with its -1.8 million b/d rate???

Dynamics of oil production in the USA



Source: Financial Times.

In such a situation, the decline in the forecast of Goldman Sachs on WTI from $55.0 to $47.5 for the third quarter appears quite reasonable. "Bears" kept a tight hold on the market, and all the success of the "bulls" are more of a local disposition.

Until the production and the number of drilling rigs in the United States have not been steadily declining or until there are signs of the global oil market rebalancing, Brent and WTI sales will continue to be relevant.

Technically, the inability of the Brent bulls to keep the support at $46.55 per barrel (38.2% of the last upward long-wave) will raise the risk of continuing the peak towards the direction of $44 (the lower limit of the downward channel) and $42.8. On the contrary, if buyers of the North Sea crude variety are unyielding, then we are waiting for a return of prices to $49-50 per barre
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Old 12-07-2017, 08:45 PM
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Brent, daily chart

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Old 13-07-2017, 03:51 PM
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Oil Prices Stabilizes on Solid Chinese Demand



Oil prices were steady as China's strong appetite for fuel eased worries of an ongoing supply overhang. Brent crude futures traded at $47.75 per barrel, rising by 1 cent from their last settlement.

Meanwhile, U.S. WTI crude futures traded at $45.48 per barrel, falling 1 cent from the previous session's close. China imported 212 million tonnes of crude oil, equivalent to 8.55 million bpd from January to June of the year.

This is up 13.8 percent during the same period last year, according to customs data, making china the biggest importer of crude products ahead of the U.S. The solid demand from China allayed worries regarding an ongoing fuel supply glut.

On Wednesday, OPEC said that the world would require 32.20 million bpd of crude from its producer members next year, down 60, 000 bpd from the current year, as consumers have increasing options of supply from outside the cartel. But the group also said its output climbed by 393, 000 bpd in June to 32.611 million bpd, with gains led by Nigeria and Libya.
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Old 14-07-2017, 03:57 PM
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Oil Prices Slide on High Supplies, Enhanced Industry Efficiency



High fuel stockpiles and developing industry efficiency weighed on oil markets. Despite these factors, oil prices were still on track for a strong weekly gain. Brent crude futures fell 8 cents or by 0.2 percent and traded at $48.34 per barrel.

The international benchmark for oil prices is up 3.5 so far this week. U.S. WTI crude futures traded at $45.98 per barrel, edging down by 10 cents or 0.2 percent but is headed for a weekly gain of 4 percent for the week.

Crude prices are now at the levels seen late November 2016, when OPEC along with other producers pledged to lower production during the first half of 2017 in a move to shore up the market.

However, oil analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein said that global oil inventories remain at a record high, stating that OECD inventories are more likely to finish higher than lower for the first half of 2017. The research and brokerage firm advised that the oil cartel will need to implement deeper cuts and extend its deal in order to remove the inventory overhang and bolster prices.
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Old 14-07-2017, 04:22 PM
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Crude Oil Reclaims $46 Despite Bearish News



Crude oil futures continued to rebound Thursday, a day after data confirmed the biggest drop in U.S. inventories fell the most in ten months.

The Energy Information Administration said crude inventories plunged by 7.6 million barrels, the biggest drop in ten months, as refining activity picked up. August WTI climbed 59 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $46.08/bbl.

Still, much of the news was bearish for oil prices this week. Yesterday, the EIA lowered its 2018 U.S. output forecast and trimmed its price target for this year and next below $50 barrel.

Elsewhere, OPEC's compliance with production cuts fell in June to its lowest since the deal with Russis kicked in early in the year, according to the International Energy Agency. "Each month something seems to come along to raise doubts about the pace of the rebalancing process.

This month, there are two hitches: a dramatic recovery in oil production from Libya and Nigeria and a lower rate of compliance by OPEC with its own output agreement," the Paris-based IEA said.

A report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed a modest increase in U.S. producer prices in the month of June. The producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.1 percent in June after coming in flat in May. Economists had expected prices to remain unchanged.
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Old 14-07-2017, 11:25 PM
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Crude Oil Extends Weekly Rally



Crude oil futures continued to rise Friday, extending strong weekly gains amid expectations that U.S. production will fade. The EIA lowered its 2018 U.S. output forecast and trimmed its price target for this year and next below $50 barrel. That's after weekly data showed U.S. inventories tumbled the most in ten months as refinery activity picked up.

Crude oil was up 52 cents at $46.59 a barrel, moving well away from June's yearly low. Baker Hughes will release its weekly crude oil rig count this afternoon. However, OPEC's compliance with production cuts fell in June to its lowest since the deal with Russia kicked in early in the year, according to the International Energy Agency. "Each month something seems to come along to raise doubts about the pace of the rebalancing process.

This month, there are two hitches: a dramatic recovery in oil production from Libya and Nigeria and a lower rate of compliance by OPEC with its own output agreement," the Paris-based IEA said. Retail Sales for June will be issued at 8.30 am ET. The consensus is for growth of 0.1 percent, while it declined 0.3 percent in May.
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