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  #21  
Old 10-12-2013, 11:30 AM
GDM_FX GDM_FX is offline
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Forex technical Analysis: Bounce or break – history repeats itself?

EUR/USD

Forex technical Analysis: Even if the start of last week was bearish, the Euro gained against the US Dollar later in the week on the back of hawkish comments made by ECB President Mario Draghi during Thursday’s ECB Press Conference.


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Technical Outlook
The bulls took the pair into the resistance located at 1.3710 and a “bounce or break” scenario is developing once again. If the buyers can maintain the positive sentiment throughout the week, this level will be broken and a move towards 1.3830 will start. However, after a strong upward move, a retracement is very possible and the resistance ahead may prove a good place for a bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook
The week ahead is rather slow in terms of economic and financial data but nonetheless, we must be aware of the Eurogroup meetings which take place Monday and will be attended by Finance Ministers of the member states, the Eurogroup President, the ECB President and other personalities of the Euro Zone economic and financial scene.

Tuesday the ECOFIN Meetings may generate volatility, depending on the matters discussed. The Meetings are attended by Finance Meetings of from EU member states who will discuss Euro support and stabilization mechanisms and other important finance matters.

Wednesday’s most important release is the German Final Consumer Price Index which tends to have less impact than the Preliminary version of the same indicator which was released 15 days earlier. Thursday the most anticipated event is the release of the US Retail Sales which show the fluctuation in sales value made at retail outlets.


GBP/USD
Last week price moved mostly on a downward path, influenced mostly by good US economic data which generated Dollar strength, but price action was mixed, characterized by a lot of whipsaws and sharp turns.


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Technical Outlook
Although on the lower time frames like four hour and hourly, the resistance located at 1.6380 appeared to be broken, from a daily chart perspective we can notice two pin candles created right on this level. These pin bars suggest that lower moves may follow and probably price will travel into the support level located at 1.6250. If that is broken, an extended move lower towards 1.5915 will possibly begin but we don’t expect such a move to be completed this week.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important UK economic indicator of the week is the Manufacturing Production which will be announced Tuesday. Manufacturing represents about 80% of all Industrial Production and thus tends to have a major impact on the pair’s movement. The same day, a Gross Domestic Product Estimate is released, showing expectations for the actual value of the Gross Domestic Product. Although it’s just an estimate, the release tends to have a notable impact on the pair. Of course, the US events mentioned earlier will affect price action directly.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #22  
Old 16-12-2013, 04:31 PM
GDM_FX GDM_FX is offline
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Forex Technical Analysis: Draghi, Carney and Bernanke – Three reasons for volatility

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the pair was mainly influenced by the US Retail Sales data which came out better than anticipated and triggered a long awaited retracement to the downside. The strong bullish impulse reached an end and the bears took price at 1.3710.


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Technical Outlook
The important level located at 1.3710 acts as support now and since the uptrend is intact, we consider a bounce higher very possible. If this bounce occurs during the course of the week, the first upper target will be 1.3830, an important resistance level which was missed by a few pips last week. If 1.3710 is broken to the downside, the first support is located at 1.3650 and most likely the broken level will become resistance once again.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday’s most important event and a potential market mover is Mario Draghi’s testimony on monetary policy before the European Parliament, in Brussels. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released Tuesday and holds a special importance because it is derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors who are highly informed due to the nature of their jobs.

Probably the main event of the week occurs Wednesday and is represented by the US Federal Funds Rate decision and the press conference which follows soon after. No change of the rate is expected but during the press conference Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will probably offer hints about the stimulus program and if this is the case, very strong moves will be triggered.

Thursday the US Existing Home Sales numbers and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are released, both being leading indicators of economic health with the potential of strengthening the US Dollar if their values are better than anticipated. Friday the final version of the US Gross Domestic Product is released but it tends to have a lower impact on the Dollar than previous versions.


GBP/USD
The US Dollar managed to take the pair lower, mostly due to the strength generated by better than anticipated data coming out of the United Stated but technical reasons were involved as well.


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Technical Outlook
Price returned below the important level of 1.6380 but a new high was reached at 1.6465 and this level will act as resistance. During next week, touches of 1.6380 from below are very possible but we anticipate a break of 1.6250 support and a move back inside the horizontal channel formed between 1.6250 and 1.5915. Direction will be strongly influenced by the US Federal Funds Rate press conference and UK releases will have a high impact as well.

Fundamental Outlook
The first important UK event of the week is the release of the British Consumer Price Index which is scheduled Tuesday. Consumer prices account for the majority of consumer inflation and the indicator itself is used by the Bank of England as an inflation target.

The Claimant Count is released Wednesday, showing the change in the number of unemployed people claiming social benefits related to unemployment. The same day the BoE Meeting Minutes come out, containing details about the latest votes on the Interest Rate and reasons behind those votes. The last UK event of the week is Thursday’s release of the Retail Sales, a potentially strong market mover because sales made at a retail level represent the greater part of consumer spending. As mentioned before, the US indicators and events will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #23  
Old 24-12-2013, 10:51 AM
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Forex Technical Analysis: Christmas week brings irregular market behavior

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s major event was Fed’s decision to reduce the monetary stimulus package from $85 billion to $75 billion per month, a fact which was perceived as bullish for the US Dollar and drove the pair lower.


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Technical Outlook
The US Dollar is benefiting from the latest Fed decision to taper the stimulus and technical reasons agree with a move below 1.3650 support, towards 1.3525. If this scenario comes true, we don’t expect price to drop sharply to touch the mentioned level and instead we believe several smaller moves up and down will occur until the target is reached. This week Christmas is celebrated, a fact which will clearly affect the market; irregular, low volatility price action may be experienced.

Fundamental Outlook
Being Christmas week, not a lot of economic data is released and most of the banks will be closed for the holiday. Just three events are worth mentioning as they may have an effect on the market: Tuesday the US Durable Goods Orders and the New Home Sales numbers are released, followed Thursday by the US Unemployment Claims. The impact of the events is unpredictable due to the thin volatility which will probably be experienced throughout the week.


GBP/USD
Better than expected UK unemployment data released last week triggered a substantial move higher and created a new high located at 1.6484 but a strong counter move brought the pair back down and prevented a clear break of resistance.


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Technical Outlook
Early last week the pair had another encounter with the support located at 1.6250, followed immediately by a move higher, suggesting bull strength. However, from a daily time frame perspective, the pair is moving sideways, bouncing between support and resistance, with neither side being in clear control. Trading will be made difficult by the holidays but the main levels to watch are 1.6250 as support and 1.6480 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the British Bankers’ Association will announce the Mortgage Approval numbers which are an excellent gauge of demand in the housing market but usually this indicator has a mild impact on the market. The US events mentioned earlier will directly affect the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #24  
Old 06-01-2014, 12:25 PM
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Forex Technical Analysis: Price direction governed by Interest Rates and Non Farm Employment Report

EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The first part of last week was characterized by irregular movement and closed market due to New Year’s Eve and first day of the New Year but once trading resumed the bears took control of the pair, breaking two important levels of support.


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Technical Outlook
After several attempts at breaking the resistance located at 1.3830, the pair finally started to move to the downside, easily breaking 1.3710 and 1.3650 resistance levels. This indicates that bearish pressure has been building and that sellers are ready to shift the balance of power in their favor. The first target of the pair is 1.3455 followed by 1.3295 and the recently broken levels may turn into resistance if touched again from below.

Fundamental Outlook
The first event of the week is Monday’s release of the US Non Manufacturing PMI which is a leading indicator of economic health but excludes the manufacturing sector. Later in the day the US Senate will vote pro or against the nomination of Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve Chairperson, an event which may trigger increased volatility.

Tuesday the German Unemployment Change comes out, offering insights into the employment situation of Europe’s most influential economy and Wednesday’s most significant event will be the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The Minutes reveal details about the reasons which determined the members’ latest vote regarding the interest rate.

Thursday is the busiest day of the week as the European Central Bank will announce their interest rate decision which will be followed by a Press Conference. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at this conference and he will also answer audience questions; this second part of the conference usually creates the strongest volatility of the day as traders try to interpret his answers.

The trading week finishes Friday with the most important US employment indicator: the Non Farm Employment Change. The report measures fluctuations in the number of employed people excluding the farming sector and it is considered an extremely high impact indicator which can strengthen the US Dollar if higher than anticipated numbers are posted.

GBP/USD
Throughout last week the United Kingdom showed slightly worse than anticipated data, a fact which weakened the Pound and allowed the pair to move lower.


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Technical Outlook
The resistance formed around 1.6550 is holding strong and the first week of the year brought us a bounce lower off this level. Although the pair is in an uptrend on a Daily chart, the latest move down shows that the bears are making an attempt to reverse this trend. If they succeed, the first target is the support located at 1.6250 and a break of this level would bring the pair back into the ranging zone created between the mentioned level and 1.5915.

Fundamental Outlook
Early Monday morning the United Kingdom releases the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index which shows the performance of the services sector as perceived by purchasing managers and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The main event is the announcement of the Official Bank Rate which occurs Thursday and usually creates strong movement although no change is anticipated.

The last UK event of the week comes out Friday in the form of the Manufacturing Production which holds a great importance as manufacturing represents about 80% of all Industrial production and tends to have a strong impact on the Pound. The important US events of the week will directly affect the pair’s direction as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #25  
Old 13-01-2014, 11:52 AM
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FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: RESUMING THE UPTREND OR JUST A SINGLE BULLISH MOVE?

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Trading last week was choppy and price didn’t find a clear direction until the release of the US Non Farm Employment report which showed surprisingly worse than anticipated numbers. Earlier in the week, the ECB decided to keep the interest rate unchanged but the event was overshadowed by the Dollar weakness generated by the US employment numbers.


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Technical Outlook
The pair broke 1.3650 resistance and the week ended above this level, following a bounce off the uptrend line drawn from the low created in July last year. If the US Dollar weakness will trigger an extended move to the upside, the resistance at 1.3710 is the first target of the pair and this is very likely to be touched. However, a break of the uptrend line mentioned earlier would indicate that bears are reversing the medium term direction of the pair and we are headed for new lows.

Fundamental Outlook
The first important event of the week comes out Tuesday in the form of the US Retail Sales numbers. Consumer spending represents about two thirds of the entire US economic activity and sales made at a retail level represent about one third of such spending, making the indicator a high impact one. Better numbers suggest increased economic activity and potentially a stronger greenback.
Wednesday the US Producer Price Index is announced, showing the change in prices charged by producers for their goods and services. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will eventually be reflected in a higher price paid by consumers for those goods. Thursday the US Consumer Price Index comes out and it’s closely related to the Producer Price Index for the reasons outlined above. The same day the ECB Monthly Bulletin is made public, containing the Bank’s viewpoint on economic conditions and also details about the data which was analyzed when the Rate decision was made.
Friday the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence report is released; its importance comes from the fact that consumer confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending so better numbers suggest that economic activity might pick up and the Dollar will strengthen.


GBP/USD
Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged, as expected but last week’s main event was definitely the worse than expected US Non Farm Employment report which weakened the greenback and took the pair higher.


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Technical Outlook
Similar to the EUR/USD, the pair bounced higher from an uptrend line starting July last year and now it appears to be headed towards the resistance zone created around 1.6550. This level stopped strong moves in the past so we cannot assume yet that it will be broken but a touch is very likely. If the uptrend line will be broken, the support located at 1.6250 might be the pair’s next objective.

Fundamental Outlook
Just two important UK events are released this week: Tuesday the Consumer Price Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. The UK Retail Sales numbers are announced Friday; the indicator is a gauge of consumer spending and economic activity and has the potential to affect the pair strongly.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan
The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.
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  #26  
Old 20-01-2014, 12:35 PM
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Forex Technical Analysis: The break of diagonal support shifts the balance of power

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Throughout last week the US Dollar strengthened against the Euro and the bearish movement seen at the beginning of the year was resumed. Overall the bears were in control for most of the week.


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Technical Outlook
The trend line drawn upwards from last July’s low was broken during the week that just ended and we consider this a major victory for the bears. In the process, the support located at 1.3550 was also broken but moves up to re-test the broken level (and potentially the broken trend line) are possible; however, we consider the market to be in a medium term downtrend and we favor moves lower, towards 1.3455.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday the US banks are closed celebrating Martin Luther King Day so there will be no US economic releases. Tuesday the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released and it’s considered a high-impact indicator because its value is derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors who are well informed about the economy due to the nature of their jobs.

Europe and the United States didn’t schedule any economic releases for Wednesday but Thursday the French and German Manufacturing PMI come out, showing the opinion of purchasing managers regarding the manufacturing sector in their respective countries. Better than expected numbers suggest increased optimism and a thriving economy. Later in the day the United States announce the Existing Home Sales which show the number of homes sold during last month, excluding new buildings.

Friday will be a slow day, with no scheduled US events; the Italian Retail Sales will be released by the Euro Zone but this is considered a low impact indicator.


GBP/USD
Last week’s main event and a huge market mover was the surprisingly better than anticipated value of the United Kingdom Retail Sales which took the pair back into the resistance located at 1.6440.


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Technical Outlook
The uptrend line drawn from the lowest point of last July was broken during last week but the UK Retail Sales numbers strengthened the Pound and at the moment price is testing from below the diagonal S/R level we just mentioned. We anticipate a bounce lower during this week and a move into the important support located at 1.6250 but a move back above the trend line could trigger additional buying pressure and a bullish move towards 1.6550.

Fundamental Outlook
The week is characterized by a lot of medium and low impact indicators released by the UK but the most important event is the release of the Bank of England Meeting Minutes scheduled Wednesday. The minutes contain the breakdown of the votes regarding the Asset Purchase Facility and the Interest Rate and also important insights into the reasons which stood behind those votes. The same day the British Claimant Count Change is announced, showing the fluctuation in the number of people who ask for social benefits derived from unemployment. The US events will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #27  
Old 27-01-2014, 10:59 AM
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Forex Technical Analysis: A week filled with major economic indicators

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week started without strong movement and a calm economic scene but as soon as better than expected Euro Zone Manufacturing data came out, the Euro strengthened substantially and the pair touched 1.3710 resistance once more.


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Technical Outlook
Although the bullish trend line was previously broken to the down side, last week’s developments brought price back above it and pierced through 1.3710 resistance. However, on the Daily chart we can notice a pin bar (candle with long upper wick) which suggests rejection and a potential move lower. If 1.3710 holds, the next target may be 1.3550 support but a move above the mentioned resistance will open the door for a move towards 1.3830.

Fundamental Outlook
The first event of the week is scheduled Monday and it’s the German Ifo Business Climate which draws its importance for the large sample used: about 7,000 businesses are surveyed and asked to rate the current economic conditions and to offer a 6-month outlook. The US New Home Sales are released the same day, showing the number of houses sold during the previous month.

Tuesday the United States announce the Durable Goods Sales which represent purchases of goods with a life expectancy of at least three years. Later in the day the US Consumer Confidence indicator is released and is often regarded as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

The most important event of the week is release of the FOMC Statement and US Federal Funds rate decision scheduled Wednesday. The rate is not expected to change and probably the monetary stimulus issue will be the more important aspect which will most likely create huge volatility in the market.

Thursday Germany announces the Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation; the same day, the US releases the Gross Domestic Product which is an economy’s main performance measurement. The trading week finishes Friday with the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index and the German Retail Sales; both are considered high-impact indicators which have the ability to move the market strongly.


GBP/USD
The Pound made substantial advances last week and the pair traveled a respectable distance to the north, breaking 1.6600 resistance and printing a new high at 1.6668.


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Technical Outlook
Although the bulls were in control for almost the entire week, taking the pair above 1.6600 resistance, during the last day of the previous week price dropped for almost 200 pips indicating that a reversal may be happening. The bullish trend line is not clearly broken but if this occurs, the pair’s medium term direction will be bearish and a move toward 1.6250 will be highly probable. Otherwise, 1.6750 is the next target for the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the week for the Pound is the release of UK’s Preliminary Gross Domestic Product which is scheduled Tuesday. As mentioned before, the Gross Domestic Product is an economy’s main gauge of performance and the Preliminary release tends to have the greatest impact on price action. Wednesday the UK Nationwide House Price Index is released and Thursday the value of Net Lending to Individuals comes out but both are considered medium-impact indicators and the effect on the pair varies from month to month. Of course, the US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #28  
Old 05-02-2014, 11:52 AM
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Forex Technical Analysis: Interest Rates and Non Farm Payrolls guarantee an action-packed week

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the bears scored an important victory and the pair dropped significantly on the back of the US bond purchase program tapering. Although Fed’s decision didn’t trigger an immediate response in the market, the effect was clearly seen during the next two days.


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Technical Outlook
The uptrend line drawn from July last year was broken decisively and so was the support located at 1.3550. This puts the bears in control from a medium term perspective and opens the door for additional moves to the down side, making 1.3400 the first target of the week. Retracements higher may find good resistance at the recently broken level of 1.3550.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a full week ahead of us, with the first important economic indicator being released Monday in the form of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Wednesday the ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released; this report is put together by a private company but it usually offers hints about the Government released report which comes out 2 days later.

Thursday is an important day as the ECB will announce the Interest Rate decision and President Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference during which he will answer journalists’ questions and will talk about the reasons which determined the interest rate vote. The Press Conference usually creates more volatility than the rate decision itself so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

Friday the most anticipated report of the week is released: the US Non Farm Employment Change which is considered to be the most important gauge of the employment situation in the United States and almost always a huge market mover.


GBP/USD
The pair had another encounter with the resistance located at 1.6600 but this was soon followed by a drop which was mainly triggered by the US developments regarding the reduction of bond purchases.


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Technical Outlook
Although the pair had a bearish week, the drop wasn’t as significant as the one seen on the EUR/USD and moves to the upside are very possible. However, we favor the short side for the week to come, taking into consideration the fact that price pierced through the uptrend line for the second time and 1.6600 resistance rejected price lower again. First major support is located at 1.6250 and resistance at 1.6600.

Fundamental Outlook

Three Purchasing Managers’ Indexes are released throughout the first three days of the week: Manufacturing PMI, Construction PMI and Services PMI, each showing the opinions of purchasing managers about their respective sectors and each having the ability to strengthen the Pound if better than expected values are posted. The most important Pound-affecting event is the Bank of England Interest Rate decision and the Asset Purchase Facility value, both released Thursday. No change is anticipated for either of them but a surprise will trigger huge volatility. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #29  
Old 10-02-2014, 11:19 AM
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Forex Technical Analysis: Bulls struggling to continue last week’s momentum

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the pair’s direction has been highly influenced by the Fundamental aspect: ECB President Mario Draghi made positive comments regarding signs of economic recovery, strengthening the Euro and the US Non Farm Payrolls posted a worse than anticipated value, weakening the greenback.


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Technical Outlook
Price bounced higher after a touch of 1.3480 and moved into the strong resistance zone created by the confluence of 1.3650 and the down trend line drawn from last year’s high. This is a potential turning point which could bring sellers into the market and make 1.3480 the first target to the down side but US Dollar weakness generated by the Non Farm Payrolls report combined with Euro strength may generate an extended move into 1.3710 resistance. At the moment there are no clear signs of a reversal to the down side, just a strong resistance zone ahead.

Fundamental Outlook
The first important event comes Tuesday in the form of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report in Washington DC and is followed Wednesday By Mario Draghi’s speech at the European Monetary Institute Conference in Brussels. Both speeches can create strong moves, depending on the matters discussed and the attitude of the participants.

Thursday the US Retail Sales are released, showing the change in the volume of sales made at retail level compared to the previous month. Since retail sales represent about two thirds of the entire consumer spending, the indicator has a high impact on the pair. Friday the German Gross Domestic Product is announced; being an economy’s main performance gauge, it has the potential to affect the Euro strongly, pushing it higher if better values are shown and weakening it if the numbers don’t meet expectations. Later in the day the University of Michigan will announce the US Consumer Sentiment which is a leading indicator of consumer spending.


GBP/USD
Last week Bank of England kept both the Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value unchanged and the main market mover was the US Non Farm Payrolls report which weakened the US Dollar and allowed the pair to move higher.


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Technical Outlook
On a Daily chart we can notice an almost perfect bounce off the support level located at 1.6250 which confirms once again the strength of this level. The first important resistance is located at 1.6600 but we don’t anticipate price to travel such a long distance to the north; bullish moves are very probable during the week to come but we still consider the medium term direction is controlled by the bears and this makes another touch of support a high probability scenario.

Fundamental Outlook
The only Pound affecting event of the week is Wednesday’s release of the Bank of England Inflation Report which will be accompanied by a Press Conference held by Governor Mark Carney and other Monetary Policy Committee members. The Inflation Report contains the Bank’s expectations regarding inflation and economic growth for the next two years and will most likely strengthen the Pound if it contains a positive outlook. Of course, the US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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Old 17-02-2014, 02:30 PM
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Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar rebounds?

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: Throughout last week the US Dollar declined against its counterpart as the released data showed a slowing of economic growth due to bad weather conditions which negatively affected business activity.


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Technical Outlook

The pair finished last week right on 1.3710 resistance, a level which rejected rising prices several times in the past. Lower moves are very possible but the latest momentum is bullish, especially after the bounce off 1.3480 and the break of 1.3650. A move above 1.3710 would consolidate the control of the bulls and would make 1.3830 the next target, while a bounce lower will shift the balance of power only if 1.3650 is clearly broken to the downside.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday US Banks will be closed celebrating Presidents’ Day and no major European data is released so the first important event of the week occurs Tuesday in the form of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Wednesday the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released, showing the details of the latest Fed meeting regarding the interest rate and the reasons that influenced the members’ vote.

Thursday is an important day as the French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released and Fed Chairwoman Yellen testifies on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. This testimony was originally scheduled last week but was postponed due to weather conditions. The US Consumer Price Index which is the main inflation gauge is announced the same day.

Friday the US Existing Home Sales are released and the G20 Meetings start. The meetings will be attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the 20 member states and have the potential to generate strong, fast moves.


GBP/USD

The Pound climbed to 1.6754, the highest level since 2011, fueled by speculation that Bank of England will raise interest rates if the economic conditions keep improving. A positive Inflation Report strongly contributed to the Pound’s strength.


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Technical Outlook

Although we considered the bulls to be in control and we expected moves higher, we didn’t anticipate that a move into the resistance located at 1.6750 would come before a retracement lower occurred. If this week the pair will complete a retracement, 1.6600 will most likely act as support while the upper target is 1.6880. The Relative Strength Index is approaching the 70 level even on a weekly chart and price traveled a huge distance with no retracement so we anticipate moves to the down side but the main direction is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook


United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index which is considered the main gauge of inflation comes out Tuesday but Wednesday will probably be the most important day of the week as the Bank of England will release the Minutes of their latest meeting. The Minutes contain a breakdown of the votes regarding the Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility and important insights into the reasons which determined the members’ votes. At the same time the Claimant Count Change is released, showing the change in the number of unemployed people who ask for social help. The week finishes Friday with the release of the UK Retail Sales which account for the major part of consumer spending and are regarded as a strong market mover.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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