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  #21  
Old 20-09-2013, 11:24 AM
GDM_FX GDM_FX is offline
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The Forex Market: Resuming bullish movement.

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Almost all US economic data which came out yesterday was better than anticipated (Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) but the retracement generated by US Dollar strength found good support at 1.3520.


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Technical Outlook
At the moment the pair is re-testing the broken level of 1.3520 and this looks like a good place for the pair to resume its upward movement. However, the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is still in overbought territory so price may fall further to clear this condition. If this is the case and 1.3520 is broken to the down side, the next potential support is located at 1.3450.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a slow day ahead with the only notable event being the speech of German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann. The scheduled time is 11:30 am GMT and the place is the Society of Business Economics Luncheon in London. Public speeches of heads of Central Banks are always important and usually create volatility so we recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD
The UK Retail Sales came out with a value of -0.9%, worse than the anticipated 0.4% and this weakened the Pound, driving the pair lower for almost the entire day.


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Technical Outlook
Although strong resistance was encountered at 1.6170 and the Pound gave back almost half of the gains acquired Wednesday, we consider that buyers will regain control and will drive the pair higher, at least for another touch of the level we just mentioned. The first notable level below price at the moment is 1.5960 and uptrend resumption may begin if it is touched, although it is more likely that price will begin to rise sooner.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major news or economic indicators today so we anticipate the market to be driven by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #22  
Old 23-09-2013, 11:18 AM
GDM_FX GDM_FX is offline
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The Forex Market: Price direction highly affected by Mario Draghi’s speech.

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Friday’s movement was ranging and undecided, with both the buyers and sellers going back and forth in an attempt to gain the upper hand. No major economic data came out and this contributed to the ranging movement.


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Technical Outlook
The major momentum belongs to the bulls and we may see a continuation move to the upside. If this is the case, the first barrier in front of rising prices is last week’s high located at 1.3568. To the downside the first level of interest is 1.3450 but the technical aspect may be overshadowed by today’s fundamental events.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important event of the day and possibly of the week is the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi. He is due to testify on the Euro Zone economic situation in Brussels, before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The event is scheduled at 1:00 pm GMT and volatility is expected; the direction depends on his attitude and comments.

Earlier in the day, at 07:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is released, with an anticipated value of 50.2 compared to the previous 49.7 and half an hour later the German Manufacturing PMI comes out. The anticipated value is 52.3 from the previous 51.8. Better than anticipated numbers for both indicators usually strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.


GBP/USD
The pair continued its descent, almost nullifying the Pound’s gains obtained previously during the week but the movement was rather slow.


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Technical Outlook
We consider that for today’s trading session a touch of 1.5960 is likely. If price gets there, a bounce higher is anticipated and possibly an attempt to resume the uptrend. Due to the correlation between GBP/USD and EUR/USD, Mario Draghi’s speech will have a hefty impact and we expect price to follow to an extent the movement of EUR/USD.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release any important data today and the pair’s movement will mostly be driven by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #23  
Old 24-09-2013, 01:12 PM
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The Forex Market: The outlook remains bullish.

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Unlike we expected, yesterday’s speech of ECB President Mario Draghi didn’t generate strong moves and the pair is still trading near the level of 1.3520 after another day when price was capped by a 65 pip range.


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Technical Outlook
The pair did not choose a clear direction yesterday but the sellers managed to have some sort of control and took price below 1.3520. However, we cannot consider this move a true break of the level because it occurred on low volume and at the moment, the level is being re-tested from below. Our bias is still bullish and we anticipate at least a double top at 1.3570. The trend line drawn from the beginning of the month will offer support if touched and the same is true for the level of 1.3450.

Fundamental Outlook
At 08:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate is announced, with the forecast being 108.4 compared to the previous 107.5. Higher numbers than forecast indicate optimism and are beneficial for the Euro. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the United States announce the Consumer Confidence which is a key indicator of future consumer spending which in turn represents the majority of overall economic activity. The indicator is expected to decrease slightly from the previous 81.5 to 79.9.


GBP/USD
The pair advanced higher yesterday but no major developments took place; a contributing factor was the relatively calm fundamental scene.


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Technical Outlook
The pair seems to be headed for 1.6170 again but a retracement lower in the 1.5960 area is still not out of the question. In fact we believe another touch of this minor support is necessary before price can resume its upward path. This encounter with support is likely to happen today.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals will be released today at 08:30 am GMT and are expected to increase from the previous 37.2 to 38.6. This indicator offers insight into the UK housing market and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #24  
Old 27-09-2013, 03:09 PM
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The Forex Market: Ending the week inside the range?

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Yesterday’s US Unemployment Claims came out better than expected and this generated the bearish movement although later in the day the Pending Home Sales were released with a worse value than was anticipated.


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Technical Outlook
The uptrend line drawn from the beginning of the month was broken yesterday and this is an indication that the sellers are starting to gather some strength. On the other hand, no important horizontal support was broken by yesterday’s bearish move and price moved just about 60 pips. So at the moment, no clear winner emerged and the pair is still consolidating. The first levels of interest remain 1.3520 to the upside and 1.3450 to the down side.

Fundamental Outlook
At 12:00 pm GMT the German Consumer Price Index is announced and expected to remain unchanged at 1.5%. The indicator measures the change in prices paid by consumers for their purchases and is highly correlated with inflation; usually higher than anticipated values strengthen the Euro. Earlier, at 09:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at Bocconi University in Milan. Volatility may be generated at the time of the speech, depending on the topics he will discuss and his attitude.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product decreased from the previous 1.5% to 1.3%, a change which was not anticipated and which generated a sharp drop below 1.6070.


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Technical Outlook
The fundamental aspect of the market overshadowed the technical and dismissed for the moment a bullish scenario where price touches 1.6170. For the entire week the pair has been trading between minor support and resistance and a breakout today is not very probable. If price touches 1.6070 or 1.5960, we will most likely see a bounce, not a break.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release today any important news or economic indicators so the pair’s movement will be mostly affected by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #25  
Old 30-09-2013, 03:27 PM
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Forex Technical Analysis: Back and forth movement.

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Friday appeared to be a bullish day but the German Consumer Price Index came out worse than anticipated and as a result the pair moved south during the second part of the day.


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Technical Outlook
What appeared to be a break of 1.3520 turned out to be just a fake out and price printed a four hour Pin bar, indicating rejection and possibly a return below resistance. We also notice a double top at 1.3570 which is a bearish chart pattern; this formation, combined with the break of the uptrend line and the Pin bar we mentioned has the potential to take the pair lower, towards the support located at 1.3450.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important data of the day comes out at 09:00 am GMT in the form of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which measures the change in prices paid by consumers for the products they purchase and has inflationary implications. No change is anticipated from the previous 1.1% but higher numbers have the potential to strengthen the single currency.


GBP/USD
The Pound gained Friday against the US Dollar, almost making a double top pattern, as Governor Carney said he sees no need for further monetary stimulus measures.


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Technical Outlook
Mark Carney’s comments were perceived as bullish for the Pound and the pair is trading close to the resistance located at 1.6170. The previous strong rally was stopped by this resistance, indicating the strength of the level. Considering the fact that Mondays are usually slow days, we don’t anticipate a true break to the upside and instead we believe price will trade close to this level, possibly moving slightly above and below it.

Fundamental Outlook
At 08:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Mortgage Approvals numbers which offer insights into the Housing Market because usually a home is purchased with the use of a mortgage. The number is expected to increase from the previous 60.6K to 61.5K, a fact which would strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #26  
Old 01-10-2013, 10:28 AM
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The Forex Market: An important day for medium-term direction

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: The US Dollar fell yesterday as concerns about a potential Government shutdown grew. Although the German data came out worse than expected, US Dollar weakness drove the pair higher.


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Technical Outlook
Price moved again above 1.3520 level but the bulls didn’t manage to capitalize on the break by putting enough distance between price and the broken level. The resistance zone created around 1.3570 is gaining more and more strength as it rejects price whenever it is touched or even approached. Price is trading in a range for quite some time and a breakout is imminent but the direction is hard to predict and depends a lot on the US political events.

Fundamental Outlook
At 09:00 am GMT the German Unemployment Rate is released and it will be the day’s most important Euro Zone event. The Rate is not expected to change from the previous 12.1% but lower numbers are beneficial for the Euro and may push the pair higher. At 2:00 pm GMT the US will announce the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index with a small anticipated decrease from the previous 55.7 to 55.3. The Manufacturing sector is an important part of the US economy so higher than expected numbers suggest a thriving economy and usually strengthen the greenback. Of course, today’s release may be overshadowed by any developments regarding the Government shutdown issue.


GBP/USD
UK’s Mortgage Approvals came out better than anticipated yesterday, indicating economic growth and strengthening the Pound against the US Dollar.


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Technical Outlook
Price is sitting above 1.6170 at the moment and the uptrend seems to be resumed. If this is the case, we will probably see today a re-test of the broken level, followed by a move higher. The next resistance is located at 1.6300. A return below 1.6170 would indicate that the bears still have some steam left and the pair might start to move in a range.

Fundamental Outlook
The UK Manufacturing PMI is released today at 08:30 am GMT; the anticipated number is 57.5, a slight increase from the previous 57.2. Better than expected values usually strengthen the Pound and drive the pair higher. The US Manufacturing PMI will also have a direct impact on price direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #27  
Old 03-10-2013, 01:10 PM
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The Forex Market: Trend resumption or just a single move?

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: The ECB Interest Rate remained unchanged, as expected but the fact that Mario Draghi refrained from signaling a need for new measures to help the region’s economy strengthened the Euro and pushed the pair higher.


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Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.3570 was finally broken yesterday and now a re-test of the level is expected in order to confirm this is real break, not just a fake out. At the moment the momentum belongs to the bulls and the next major resistance is represented by 1.3710, the year’s high. A move back below 1.3570 would indicate that the ranging period is still not over and the strong rally was just a single move.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important European event of the day is the release of the Euro Zone Retail Sales scheduled at 09:00 am GMT. The indicator is considered to have a medium impact on the pair but if a substantial difference is posted, strong moves are likely to be generated. For today’s release, analysts anticipate an increase from the previous 0.1% to 0.3%.

The United States announce the Unemployment Claims at 12:30 pm GMT with an increase anticipated from the previous 305K to 315K. Numbers higher than 315K are detrimental for the US Dollar and may weaken it.


GBP/USD
Similar to the Euro, the Pound strengthened against the greenback and the pair moved on a bullish path for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session.


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Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s rally generated a double top chart pattern close to the level of 1.6250 after an almost perfect re-test of 1.6170. The pattern we mentioned is pushing price lower at the moment and today will offer more insights about future direction and whether the latest small move south is a retracement or a reversal. The levels to watch are 1.6250 as resistance and 1.6170 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
The UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released at 08:30 am GMT with an anticipated decrease from the previous 60.5 to 60.4. This is a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and better than anticipated numbers may strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #28  
Old 03-10-2013, 04:03 PM
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  #29  
Old 04-10-2013, 02:35 PM
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Forex Technical Analysis: US Non Farm Employment report canceled.

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: The US Data released yesterday afternoon (GMT time) was worse than expected and the US Dollar weakened as a result, allowing the pair to climb higher.


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Technical Outlook
After breaking 1.3520 to the upside price didn’t return to re-test it and continued its bullish path. At the moment the year’s high located at 1.3710 is the first barrier in front of rising prices and also, a high-interest level. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart shows some signs of overbought but it is not an extreme condition so further advances are possible. The first support is represented by 1.3520.

Fundamental Outlook
Under normal circumstances, the most important event of the day would have been the release of the Non Farm Employment change but the US Labor Department announced that the employment situation report will not be released due to budget issues.

The German Producer Price Index will be released at 06:00 am GMT with an anticipated increase from -0.1% to 0.1%. Higher than expected values usually strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher, especially if a substantial difference is posted.


GBP/USD

The Pound’s rally stopped yesterday after the double top pattern mentioned and at the moment the support located at 1.6170 is being tested.


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Technical Outlook
The bullish movement seemed overextended for quite a long while and it looks like price is trying to break 1.6170 to the down side once again. If the bearish momentum is not strong enough to take price below the mentioned support, we are likely to see a few days or ranging price action between 1.6170 and 1.6250.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic data today so the pair will mostly be driven by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #30  
Old 04-10-2013, 04:44 PM
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