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  #11  
Old 10-09-2013, 10:41 AM
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The Forex Market: Crucial resistance levels ahead. Break or Bounce?

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Although usually Monday’s are slow days, yesterday was an exception and price moved strongly to the upside, showing once again that no hard rules apply to currency trading. The rally was generated by US Dollar weakness which fell against most of its counterparts.


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Technical Outlook
The key level of 1.3300 is again sitting in front of the par. Once price gets there, we will be given more hints about its next move: if the Relative Strength Index will signal an overbought condition and indecision or rejection candles will appear, then probably we are dealing with a bounce lower. If price will close confidently above the level, we might be dealing with a continued move to the upside where 1.3300 becomes support once again.

Fundamental Outlook

At 06:45 am GMT the French Industrial Production numbers are released, with a hefty increase anticipated: 0.7% from the previous -1.4%.The French economy is an important part of the Euro Zone economy and better than anticipated numbers for this indicator strengthen the Euro but the impact is usually a mild one.


GBP/USD
The crucial resistance located at 1.5720 was touched yesterday as UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said that Britain’s economy is in the early stages of a recovery, a statement which strengthened the Pound.


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Technical Outlook
Yesterday the pair moved almost straight up, with the bulls being in total control and this makes a retracement lower very probable. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is indicating overbought conditions and 1.5720 represents a major resistance level which generated a lot of downward movement in the past and is likely to do that again. We don’t anticipate a break of this level on the first try.

Fundamental Outlook
The UK didn’t schedule for today any important data releases and the same is valid for the US so we anticipate a day driven by the technical aspect of the market.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #12  
Old 10-09-2013, 12:49 PM
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  #13  
Old 11-09-2013, 10:52 AM
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The Forex Market: The battle for Resistance is still undecided.

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: The pair had a slow day yesterday and the only economic indicator of the day, the French Industrial Production failed to generate enough volatility for major developments to take place.


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Technical Outlook
It seems like the bullish momentum is fading out or at least the buyers are taking a break. Monday’s rally could not be continued and the High located at 1.3280 could not be broken. Also, 1.3300 is still strong and coupled with 1.3280, it creates a strong zone of resistance which is likely to cap upside movement. Support is located in the 1.3225 – 1.3230 area.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important Euro Zone indicator released today is the German Consumer Price Index which is anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.5%. The price consumers pay for the products they purchase is a gauge of inflation so if its value increases too much, the ECB may counter this rise through a Rate increase. The release is scheduled for 06:00 am GMT and higher than anticipated values usually strengthen the Euro. The US doesn’t release any major economic or financial indicators today.


GBP/USD
The pair had a bullish day but a slow one and price crawled higher, above 1.5720. For the entire day, price moved in a 60 pip range, showing no determination or clear bull control.


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Technical Outlook
Although 1.5720 was breached, the lack of determination we spoke of earlier makes us believe that we are not dealing with a true break and that price will soon return below 1.5720. Adding to this is the fact that Divergence is present: notice how price made a Higher High but the Relative Strength Index just printed a Lower High. This is an indication that price may be headed lower.

Fundamental Outlook
A very important UK indicator is released today at 08:30 am GMT: the Claimant Count Change which represents the change in the number of unemployed people who are asking for social benefits related to their lack of jobs. A higher number of unemployed people suggests that jobs are harder to obtain and this is usually a sign that economic conditions are worsening. Today’s forecast is -21.2K (previous was -29.2K) and a higher number can weaken the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #14  
Old 11-09-2013, 02:25 PM
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The MARS Strategy – Easier than going to Mars
This is a more advanced strategy than the ones we presented until now, with more conditions for a valid entry, but having more rules filters out bad entries, giving us fewer but more reliable signals. Ok, down to business: the MARS strategy uses two Moving Averages, a RSI and Stochastic. For the two Moving Averages, we will use the Exponential method, with periods of 5 and 10. The RSI will remain at the default value of 14 (you will have to manually add the 50 level on it) and for Stochastic we are going to use 15, 3, 3 settings. The chart should look like this after you placed all the indicators on it:


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Now for the entry rules: for a Sell trade, we must wait for the 5 EMA (blue one on our chart) to cross the 10 EMA (the red one) from above, and going downwards (bearish cross). The RSI must be under the 50 level and pointing down; the 50 level of the RSI is often used for trend confirmation: once it is crossed, a trend is considered to be in place. However, this is not a trend definition, but it helps in our strategy. Finally, the Stochastic must be pointing down but not in oversold condition. If the Stochastic shows oversold, we shouldn’t enter a trade because a reversal could be coming. Remember that Stochastic is a leading indicator, which informs us about a possible change in the direction of price by going below the 20 level (oversold condition) or above the 80 level (overbought condition). Just like the other strategies, this one also requires us to wait for the close of the candle corresponding to the cross of the two EMAs. For a Buy trade, all the rules must be reversed. A valid Sell signal should look like this:


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A good strategy/system should also focus on the exit point, whether is at a profit, or at a loss. The MARS strategy requires us to place the Stop Loss at a logical point, above the previous peak for a Sell trade and below the previous low for a Buy trade, at a safe enough distance, giving the trade some room to breathe. Even if our Stop Loss is not hit, but the RSI crosses the 50 level in the opposite direction, we will also exit the trade. The same is valid for a trade that is in profit: we exit it if the RSI crosses the 50 level in the opposite direction. So the RSI acts in this case as a manual Stop Loss and a manual Take Profit level. Here is an example:


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In the picture above we have a short trade example so when the RSI crosses the 50 level in the opposite direction (i.e., going up) we exit the trade in profit. In our example, the RSI crossed up, signaling an exit, but immediately crossed back down making us realize that was a too early exit, but it’s always better to protect your profits and exit early than waiting to see if RSI goes back down. Besides, we can enter again if all the conditions are met when the RSI goes again below the 50 level.

Mars strategy summary:
Entry rules:
Buy:
1. 5 EMA crosses 10 EMA upwards (bullish cross).
2. RSI 14 is above the 50 level.
3. Stochastic 15, 3, 3 is pointing up, showing bullish momentum, but it is not in overbought territory.

Sell:
1. 5 EMA crosses 10 EMA downwards (bearish cross).
2. RSI 14 is below the 50 level.
3. Stochastic 15, 3, 3 is pointing down, showing bearish momentum, but it is not in oversold territory.

Exit rules:
Buy: exit if the RSI crosses the 50 level downwards.
Sell: exit if the RSI crosses the 50 level upwards.

Mars strategy - advantages and disadvantages
The MARS strategy needs a lot of conditions to be met for a trade to be entered and this makes the signals more accurate than the ones provided by other, simpler strategies, but at the same time, it gives us less signals. We consider this to be a good thing, because nobody needs a lot of non-accurate signals. The disadvantage of the strategy is that a novice trader could find it a bit complicated at first, because of all the indicators and rules, but once you get used to it and learn how to use it properly, you will see that it can bring very good profits and that it also can be modified a little, in order to fit a trader’s personality.
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  #15  
Old 12-09-2013, 12:49 PM
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Forex Technical Analysis: The bulls won the battle… or did they?

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: The bulls scored a good victory yesterday by touching 1.3300 resistance on the back of US Dollar weakness. The German Producer Price Index came out as anticipated, at 0.0% and as a result, the event had a low impact.


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Technical Outlook
The pair is showing signs of rejection in the form of the pin bar created right on the level of 1.3300. Also we note that Bearish Divergence is present: price is printing Higher Highs while the Relative Strength Index is showing Lower Highs. These factors make us believe that price will start to move lower soon. The first support is located at 1.3230 and first important resistance is 1.3400. Of course, the most important level at the moment is 1.3300.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 08:00 am GMT the ECB will release the Monthly Bulletin which contains the statistical data analyzed when the Interest Rate decision was made and also an outlook concerning the future economic conditions from the Bank’s view point. This is important information for market participants and it will probably generate volatility at the time of the release and depending on the contents. Later in the day at 11:40 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the Bank of Latvia’s Economic Conference. His public speeches are always watched closely for any hints of future monetary direction and volatility is almost always present.


GBP/USD
The pair was heavily influenced by the much better than expected numbers for the Claimant Count Change and as a result, price moved comfortably above the key resistance located at 1.5720.

Technical Outlook
The key level of 1.5720 was breached decisively at the time of the important UK data release and the bullish momentum continued throughout the day. However, the Relative Strength Index is showing overbought conditions even on a daily chart so a retracement lower may be next. If this indeed happens, the first point of interest is represented by the same level of 1.5720 which may now turn into support. The next resistance is located at 1.5850.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day is the appearance and speech of BoE Governor Mark Carney at the Inflation Report Hearings. The event is scheduled at 09:00 am GMT and will most likely generate strong movement, overshadowing the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #16  
Old 12-09-2013, 01:55 PM
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  #17  
Old 13-09-2013, 05:18 PM
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Pin Bar Strategy – Price action still rules the Market
It is believed that Japanese candlestick charts were developed by Munehisa Homna, a rice trader from Japan, during the 18th century. However, Steve Nison, who introduced them to the Western trading world, thinks that most likely Homna did not use candlestick charts and that they were later developed, during the late 1800s. Whether Homna used or not candlestick charts is of little importance to this strategy, because we are going to focus on a single candlestick – the Pin bar. This is an important and powerful reversal candlestick and if it appears at an important level of Support or Resistance, it can be traded with pretty much confidence. The Pin bar is a candle with a small body and a long wick; the best Pin bar is considered to be a candle where the wick is 2/3 of the whole candle, but other candles are accepted as Pin bars. Here is a picture of a Bearish Pin bar and a Bullish Pin bar:


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The Pin bars shown in the picture above have a long wick (much longer than the body) and a small body, with price closing near the highest point of the candle (for the Bullish Pin bar) or near the lowest point of the candle (for a Bearish Pin bar). Now we will focus a little on the psychology behind the development of a Bullish Pin bar: assuming that we are talking about Daily candles, in the first part of the day, the sellers are in control of the market and are able to take price lower, but this strength fades away towards the later parts of the day and the buyers regain control of the market and start to push prices higher and eventually, even manage to close the day higher than it’s opening, resulting in a Pin bar on the Daily chart. This is indicative of the fact that sellers, even though they were strong in the first part of the day, lost the battle and now the buyers are clearly in control. Price will fluctuate during the day and we cannot divide the day in two distinct periods. It doesn’t matter when the buyers took back control of the market (that can even happen in the last hour of the day – although it is not usual). The opposite applies for a Bearish Pin bar.

Like we said, the Pin bar is a strong sign of reversal and we can trade it if several conditions are met. Remember, we are not just trading any Pin bar. When a proper Pin bar is formed we must carefully determine the importance of the level where it was formed. First we must draw Support and Resistance levels and then, if we see a Pin bar forming at one of our previously drawn levels, we must determine if it’s formed in the direction of the trend or counter-trend. Here is a picture to exemplify better:


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Although not all of the Pin bars shown in the picture above are perfect, they clearly show rejection from a level of Resistance (or support turned resistance), mark the end of the retracement and are indicative of the continuation of the main trend. This kind of Pin Bar can be traded once the next candle opens, placing a Stop Loss a few pips above the highest point of the Pin for a short trade and a few pips below the lowest point of the Pin for a long trade. Take Profit order must be placed at the next Support or Resistance level. Here is the picture for Stop Loss placement:


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Pin Bar strategy summary:
Entry rules:
1.Determine the trend.
2.Draw Support and Resistance levels.
3.Wait for the a retracement to begin (counter trend move).
4.If in a downtrend, during the retracement, a Pin Bar appears at a Resistance level, go short.
5.If in an uptrend, during the retracement, a Pin Bar appears at a Support level, go long.

Exit rules:
Any trade will be exited if the Stop Loss or Take Profit is hit.

Pin Bar strategy – advantages and disadvantages:

In this strategy we use the pin bar to determine the end of the retracement and the continuation of the main trend; we can say the Pin is a reversal candle for the retracement and a continuation candle for the main trend. It is sometimes difficult for a new trader to understand how one candle can be at the same time a continuation and a reversal sign. This, on top of the fact that the strategy relies heavily on S/R (which needs a trained eye to identify), makes it somewhat difficult for a novice and this constitutes a disadvantage. On the other hand, the Pin Bar strategy gives a high percentage of winning trades if it is used properly. There will be losing trades, but taking only trades with a good R:R ratio, increases the chances of a positive balance.
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  #18  
Old 17-09-2013, 10:43 AM
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The Forex Market: Increased chances for a return below Resistance

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Friday price was confined within a range and trading was made difficult by sharp reversals. Overall, the US data came out worse than anticipated, weakening the greenback and driving the pair higher but the Euro bulls could not capitalize on this and price is still trading close to 1.3300.


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Technical Outlook
Both the resistance located at 1.3325 and support at 1.3255 are doing a great job at reversing price immediately after they are touched and these are the levels to watch today. Monday’s are usually slow days and price is likely to remain within the boundaries we mentioned but last Monday was a very active day, showing us once again that no clear rules can be made. A strong breakout to either side is likely to generate additional movement in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro Zone Consumer Price index is announced today at 09:00 am GMT but it is not expected to change from the previous value of 1.3%. Consumer prices are directly correlated to inflation and if inflation rises above certain levels the ECB is likely to increase the Interest Rate so higher than anticipated values for today’s CPI release are likely to strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.


GBP/USD
The pair moved higher Friday on the back of worse than expected US economic data and the battle for the important 1.5850 has now started.


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Technical Outlook
Although price closed above 1.5850, we don’t consider this to be a true break yet. No clear retracement has been seen in a while and the Relative Strength Index is in overbought territory. Considering these factors, price is likely to return below the level of 1.5850 before making another attempt at breaking it decisively. The first support is located at 1.5775 and is likely to push the pair higher if it is touched.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release any important economic of financial data today so we expect the pair to be influenced by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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  #19  
Old 18-09-2013, 11:10 AM
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The Forex Market: All eyes on the United States events

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Although two important economic indicators were released yesterday -the German ZEW survey and the US Consumer Price Index – the pair traveled just a 50 pip distance and overall the day lacked volatility.


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Technical Outlook
The previous 1.3325 resistance turned into support yesterday when a touch resulted in a bounce higher. However, due to the lack of clear movement, a clear technical prediction is less reliable and at the moment we are neutral on the pair. Today is a very important day for the US and we believe the technical aspect will be secondary. The most important levels to watch are 1.3400 as resistance and 1.3300 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
The Federal Open Market Committee will announce today the Federal Funds Rate which is not anticipated to change from the previous 0.25%. The scheduled time is 6:00 pm GMT and at the same time the FOMC will release their Economic Projections and the Rate Statement which contains insights into the reasons that determined the Rate decision and possible hints about future monetary direction. Half an hour later, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at a Press Conference and will also answer audience questions. Strong moves and sharp reversals are possible at the time of all these events so we recommend to trade cautiously.


GBP/USD
Yesterday the UK Consumer Price Index came out exactly as anticipated, with a value of 2.7% and although this was initially perceived by the market as bearish, the sellers failed to capitalize on the momentum and they couldn’t continue the move.


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Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s mixed movement doesn’t bring a lot of clues about future direction but a touch of 1.5850 support is very possible. The first resistance is represented by the minor level of 1.5960 but the pair will be highly influenced by the important fundamental events scheduled for the day.

Fundamental Outlook
At 08:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the MPC Meeting Minutes containing the outcome of the members’ votes on the Asset Purchase Facility and on the Interest Rate. The vote details show us the stance of each MPC member and also show if the members are starting to change their opinions about these two important aspects of the UK monetary policy. The US events mentioned earlier will greatly affect the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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Old 19-09-2013, 10:36 AM
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Forex Technical Analysis: The calm after the storm

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Before the US evening events the pair moved sideways in an extremely narrow range of less than 30 pips. However this all changed once the US cluster of events was released, weakening the US Dollar and driving the pair higher. The US Interest Rate remained unchanged but the Fed decided to keep Bond buying at $85 billion per month and this was the trigger for the massive rally.


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Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s momentum is likely to be continued today with more bulls joining the buying frenzy. The resistance located at 1.3400 was broken decisively on the first attempt and the rally paused near 1.3520 minor resistance. The pair is reaching the overbought level on a daily chart so we might see a retracement lower before price can move higher but the bias is bullish and higher prices are most probable.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important events of the day come from the United States today as well: the Existing Home Sales numbers are released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to decrease from the previous 5.39M to 5.27M. A lower than anticipated number is indicative of a stalling or contracting economy and it may generate US Dollar weakness. At the same time, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be announced, with an expected increase from the previous 9.3 to 10.2. The index is derived from the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia Federal district and it’s a leading indicator of economic health so higher than anticipated numbers may strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
The Pound strengthened at the time of the BoE Meeting Minutes release and the US events brought price even higher on the back of US Dollar weakness.


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Technical Outlook
The Pound had a massive 230 pip rise yesterday and the buyers are in total control of the pair with the first barrier being the resistance located at 1.6170. Although the momentum belongs to the bulls, the Relative Strength Index is showing a severe overbought condition so we don’t believe 1.6170 will be broken today. We will probably experience a ranging day compared to yesterday’s strong movement.

Fundamental Outlook
At 08:30 am GMT the United Kingdom announces the Retail Sales numbers which are anticipated to decrease from 1.1% to 0.4%. This is the main gauge of consumer spending which accounts for the majority of UK economic activity so higher numbers than forecast are beneficial for the Pound and may drive the pair higher.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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