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  #191  
Old 05-06-2017, 09:45 PM
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: A FULL WEEK AHEAD: BRITISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, ECB RATE DECISION


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week the bulls maintained control and managed to push the pair above 1.1240 resistance, helped also by a much worse than expected Non-Farm Payrolls reading.


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Technical Outlook

After a retracement and a perfect bounce at 1.1120, the pair moved back into 1.1240 resistance and this time the level was broken decisively. This means that the uptrend has resumed and price is on its way to the next resistance, located at 1.1340 – 1.1350. It must be noted that the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic have spent a lot of time in the upper part of their channels and although this is normal during an uptrend, it can also mean that a deeper pullback may soon follow. If price moves below 1.1240, it will encounter strong support at 1.1120.

Fundamental Outlook

French and German banks will be closed Monday in observance of Whit Monday, and this will probably affect volatility, generating choppy price action. On the US Dollar side we have the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers from outside the manufacturing sector, which acts as a leading indicator of economic health and optimism.

Tuesday and Wednesday are slow days for both currencies but action picks up Thursday when the ECB will announce their decision on where to set the interest rate and ECB President Draghi will hold the usual press conference, discussing the rate decision and answering journalists’ questions. Usually volatility surges during the press conference, especially if Draghi offers hints about future rate changes. The trading week will end with another day that lacks major releases on either side.


GBP/USD

The pair had a very choppy week but it showed that for the time being the US Dollar is not strong enough to break horizontal support or the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. The week lacked major economic releases and this contributed to the choppy action.


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Technical Outlook

Most of last week’s daily candles are small and with large wicks, which is a sign of indecision from both sellers and buyers. For the time being the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.2770 are holding, also the US Dollar was weakened by disappointing Non-Farm Employment numbers and all this suggests that the pair will climb towards 1.3050. However, it must be noted that this week the British Parliamentary Elections will take place and this will heavily affect the Pound, so the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the week is the release of the British Services PMI, scheduled Monday; usually this survey creates volatility only if the actual reading differs from expectations. Probably the biggest movement on Pound pairs will be seen Thursday when the UK Parliamentary Elections take place. Caution is recommended throughout the day.

Friday the British Manufacturing Production is released, showing changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing sector. Higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound but same as with the Services PMI, the impact is bigger if the actual reading differs from expectations.
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  #192  
Old 12-06-2017, 02:35 PM
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: POUND ON SHAKY GROUND AFTER BRITISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, US DOLLAR SHOWS SIGNS OF RECOVERY


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week the ECB announced they’ve reduced inflation expectations for 2017 and the years to follow. This was the main reason for a drop seen Thursday but other than that, price action was choppy and without clear direction.


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Technical Outlook

The pair retraced after reaching a high at 1.1283 and moved below 1.1240, showing increased bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index reached its 70 level several times during the last period, becoming overbought and showing bearish divergence (price is making higher highs while the oscillator is making lower highs). These facts, combined with the ECB stance on inflation, make us believe that the pair is headed lower, possibly into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. The first hurdle is the support at 1.1120 but if price bounces higher from there, we may see another encounter with 1.1240.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts slow, without any major indicators released on Monday but Tuesday action picks up with the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment and U.S. Producer Price Index. Both releases have the capacity to move the currencies strongly, but the impact is lower if the actual number matches expectations.

Wednesday will be a big day for the US Dollar because 3 major releases are scheduled: the U.S. CPI (key inflation gauge), the U.S. Retail Sales and the Fed will announce the interest rate which is expected to increase to <1.25% from the current <1.00%. All this is likely to generate increased movement on all US Dollar pairs, so caution is recommended.

Thursday is a slow day for both the US Dollar and Euro and the trading week ends Friday with the release of the European Final Consumer Price Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which is a survey that tries to gauge the confidence of consumers in economic conditions.


GBP/USD

The British Parliamentary Elections resulted in a hung Parliament, meaning that the Conservative Party won but didn’t manage to take enough seats to establish a majority. This triggered a sharp drop for the Pound and a break of several support levels.


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Technical Outlook

Given the current political situation in the United Kingdom, the Pound is likely to continue to weaken and to head into the next support located at 1.2570. The pair is now trading below two important levels (1.2850 and 1.2770) and below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average so the bias is bearish from a technical standpoint as well as fundamental. However, this is still a high-risk pair and we recommend caution trading it.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important release for the Pound is the British Consumer Price Index, scheduled Tuesday. The indicator is the main gauge of inflation and shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase.

Wednesday’s highlight is the release of the Average Earnings Index, an indicator that shows changes in the price paid for labor by businesses and Government. The last major event of the week for the Pound is the announcement of the BOE interest rate, along with a Monetary Policy Summary, scheduled Thursday. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct and possibly strong influence on the pair’s direction.
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  #193  
Old 19-06-2017, 09:44 PM
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: RANGE-BOUND TRADING CONTINUES AMID A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week’s main story was the Fed rate hike from <1.00% to <1.25% but also the hawkish Fed press conference. The positive vibe that surrounded the US Dollar reversed an earlier climb towards 1.1300 and brought the pair into 1.1100 territory.


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Technical Outlook

After reaching a weekly high at 1.1295 the pair dropped close to 1.1120 support and now the greenback is benefiting from a positive market sentiment. We expect to see an encounter with 1.1120 and the 50 days Exponential Moving Average early in the week but the pair is still in an uptrend, so once the 50 EMA is reached, we may see another push to the north. However, as long as last week’s high is not broken, our bias is bearish, aiming for a move into 1.1000 territory.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is surprisingly slow in terms of economic releases for both currencies in the pair. Monday and Tuesday we don’t have anything major on the economic calendar, while Wednesday’s only notable release is the U.S. Existing Home Sales. A higher than anticipated reading shows a healthy house market and this usually strengthens the US Dollar.

Thursday the focus shifts on the Euro for the release of the Eurozone Consumer Confidence, a survey that gauges the opinions of about 2,300 European citizens regarding economic conditions. Friday the center stage is taken by Purchasing Managers’ Indexes, namely the German Services and Manufacturing PMIs as well as the Eurozone Services and Manufacturing PMIs. On the US Dollar side we have the New Home Sales, an indicator that shows the annualized number of houses sold during the previous month.


GBP/USD

The pair has just completed a very choppy week, with price bouncing all over the place, especially in the later part of the week. The Bank of England has kept the rate unchanged but 3 out of the 8 MPC Members voted for an increase and this generated Pound strength.


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Technical Outlook

The last three Daily candles are showing long wicks and rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This is a sign of indecision and lack of determination from both sides; the bulls cannot break the 50 EMA and the bears cannot take price lower. Due to these factors, our outlook is mostly neutral until a clear direction is established. However, it must be noted that the 50 period EMA and the level at 1.2770 form together a confluence zone of resistance, which may push price lower during the early stages of the week.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has an even slower fundamental week than the Euro and US Dollar, and the only notable indicator is the Public Sector Net Borrowing, scheduled Wednesday. The indicator shows the difference between spending and income for the Public Sector and a figure above zero indicates deficit, while a figure below zero shows excess. Lower numbers for this indicators are usually beneficial for the currency but the impact is often limited.
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  #194  
Old 26-06-2017, 02:45 PM
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: YELLEN, DRAGHI, CARNEY: THE THREE MAJOR PLAYERS HAVE A FULL WEEK AHEAD


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week the bears attempted to break support but the US Dollar strength faded and the pair started to move north, erasing almost all the losses incurred earlier in the week. Overall we had a neutral week, with price finishing close to where it started.


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Technical Outlook

After a perfect touch of 1.1120 support, the pair bounced higher and erased the entire drop. This is the second time that 1.1120 clearly rejects falling prices and the pair is still trading above the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, so the bias remains bullish, anticipating a touch of 1.1240 and possibly 1.1280.

If price drops lower, it will encounter a strong support zone because the 50 EMA is climbing and together with 1.1120 will create a confluence zone. As long as the pair is trading above horizontal support and above the 50 days EMA, our outlook is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts with the release of the German IFO Business Climate survey and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, both scheduled Monday. These indicators are considered high-impact but lately their influence on the respective currency has diminished and a strong impact can only be seen if the actual number differs significantly from expectations.

Tuesday ECB President Draghi will deliver a speech in Portugal, at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking and later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak in London about the global economy, at the British Academy 'President's Lecture'.

Wednesday ECB President Draghi will participate in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking, in Portugal. Thursday we take a look at German inflation with the release of the Preliminary Consumer Price Index, and on the US Dollar side we have the Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product. The Final version is the least important out of the three (Advance, preliminary and Final), but its impact shouldn’t be overlooked.

Friday no high-impact indicators will be released but worth noting are the German Retail Sales, and Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index, both with a medium impact on their respective currencies.


GBP/USD

The Pound had an interesting week, first weakening when BOE Governor mentioned that a rate hike is not likely to come very soon, and then erasing some of the losses on the back of hawkish comments made by a member of the Monetary Policy Committee.


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Technical Outlook

Although the pair climbed during the latter part of last week, the bias remains bearish as long as price is trading below 1.2770 and below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. Early this week, we expect to see a touch of the two resistance elements just mentioned and the way price behaves there, will decide the next move. A break would show increased bullish pressure and would make 1.2850 the first target, while a bounce would probably take the pair into 1.2570 – 1.2550.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report, followed shortly by a press conference held by BOE Governor Mark Carney. This has the potential to be the biggest event this week for the Pound, so caution is recommended. Wednesday BOE Governor Carney will participate in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking and this is another reason for possibly strong movement.

The Net Lending to Individuals will be released Thursday and Friday the Current Account comes out, showing the difference in value between imports and exports. The same day the British Final GDP comes out, but this version usually has a low impact on the currency.
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  #195  
Old 03-07-2017, 09:48 PM
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR IN THE SPOTLIGHT: NON-FARM PAYROLLS AND FOMC MINUTES


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The Euro experienced a huge boost coming from Draghi’s hawkish comments made at the European Central Bank Forum, so the pair moved higher for the entire last week, breaking several resistance levels.


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Technical Outlook

The strong move seen last week has renewed the uptrend and took the pair out of the choppiness it was in. Now the picture is bullish once again and the pair is trading above several broken resistance levels, which may turn into support this week. The resistance at 1.1450 is a key level that reversed rising prices in the past and the Relative Strength Index is overbought, so we must be wary of a pullback this week. The first potential support is located at 1.1350 but keep in mind that the US Dollar will be affected by important events this week.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts pretty slow, with the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI scheduled Monday and followed Tuesday by a major Holiday: the U.S. Independence Day. American banks will be closed and volatility will be affected.

Wednesday the Fed will release the FOMC Minutes of their latest Meeting, revealing the reasons that stood behind the latest rate vote and Thursday we take a first look at the U.S. jobs market with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.

Friday will probably be the busiest day of the week because the Group of 20 (G20) Meetings start and also the US Dollar will be heavily affected by the Non-Farm Payrolls, a report that is widely considered the most important U.S. jobs data.


GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness and hawkish comments made by BOE Governor Mark Carney generated a very strong week for the Pound and took the pair more than 300 pips higher.


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Technical Outlook

The Sterling is clearly winning the battle against the US Dollar but the pair is facing a strong resistance at 1.3050 and the Relative Strength Index is very close to overbought territory. These facts make us anticipate a pullback once 1.3050 is reached; even if the level is broken, a retracement lower should soon follow. The next resistance is located at 1.3430 (observed better on a Weekly chart) but we don’t expect price to travel that entire distance this week.

Fundamental Outlook

This week will be mainly dedicated to the British PMI series. These are surveys that try to gauge the opinions of purchasing managers from each sector regarding economic conditions and overall health of the respective sector. The Manufacturing PMI is released Monday, followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. British representatives will attend the G20 Meetings that start Friday so the Pound may be affected by the talks.
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  #196  
Old 10-07-2017, 09:51 PM
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: MARKETS PREPARE FOR FED CHAIR YELLEN’S TESTIMONY


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week the pair retraced lower, mostly due to overbought condition but after failing to break support, it returned to the levels seen in the beginning of the week. U.S. employment data was solid and brought the pair lower for the end of the week.


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Technical Outlook

The pair is showing rejection again near 1.1450 resistance and the NFP report showed a better than anticipated reading, so its effects will be probably seen throughout this week. The pair is in a clear uptrend but for the short to medium term we expect to see a move into 1.1300 – 1.1280, mostly because the bulls failed twice to break the key resistance at 1.1450. However, if that resistance will be broken early in the week, we may see a move into 1.1500 but Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony is likely to decide the next move.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts slow, with the first two days lacking any major events. Action picks up Wednesday when Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the topic of the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. Thursday she will testify on the same topic but this time before the Senate Banking Committee and the same day the U.S. Producer Price Index is released.

Friday the always important U.S. Consumer Price Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase and the final event of the week will be the U.S. Retail Sales. The Euro doesn’t have anything major on the calendar but the U.S. releases are considered high impact so we expect to see volatility throughout the week.


GBP/USD

Last week belonged to the bears after another failed attempt to move above 1.3050 resistance. Later in the week, the U.S. jobs data added more strength to the greenback and now the pair is approaching support.


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Technical Outlook

The bullish move seen over the last weeks failed to break 1.3050 resistance and now the pair is moving south, with an overbought Stochastic and good downside momentum. The short term outlook is bearish, anticipating a touch of the support at 1.2850 and the 50 days Exponential Moving Average; if this barrier is broken, the next target will become 1.2770 but on the other hand, a break will probably generate a climb into 1.3000 area.

Fundamental Outlook

The Sterling has a very slow economic week ahead, with the only notable indicator being the Average Earnings Index, released Wednesday. The index shows changes in the price that businesses and government pay for labor and usually has a high impact on the currency. Of course, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement, as always.
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  #197  
Old 17-07-2017, 09:19 PM
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK TAKES CENTER STAGE: INTEREST RATE DECISION AND PRESS CONFERENCE


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The bulls remained in control and the pair closed last week strongly, on the back of a US Dollar sell-off triggered by weak inflation and retail sales data. However, Friday’s climb couldn’t take out the weekly top at 1.1490.


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Technical Outlook

Price is now facing a cluster of resistance levels (1.1450 – 1.1490) and the uptrend is overextended, meaning that the pair travelled a long distance without a proper pullback. The Relative Strength Index first became overbought back in April and since then, it never visited the lower levels (now it is approaching overbought on a Weekly chart as well).

All this makes us anticipate a retracement this week, and possibly an encounter with 1.1350, followed by the 50 days EMA. However, it is very important to note that the pair is in a strong uptrend and the RSI has been overbought for a long time and price still continued higher, so the possibility of another bullish week shouldn’t be overlooked. Next strong resistance is in the 1.1600 area.

Fundamental Outlook

The first notable release of the week is the European Final version of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled Monday. Although this version is the least important out of the three, the CPI remains a high impact indicator because it’s the main gauge of inflation for the Eurozone.

Tuesday the only highlight for the Euro will be the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey of about 275 German investors and analysts, focused on their 6-month outlook for the economy. Lately this indicator has lost some of its impact but higher numbers suggest optimism and strengthen the Euro.

Wednesday is a slow day, with the only release being the U.S. Building Permits, an indicator that shows how many permits for new buildings were released during the previous month. It offers some insights into the U.S. house market but the impact is not always high.

Thursday may be the most volatile day of the week as the ECB meets to announce their interest rate and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference. The rate is not expected to change but the press conference usually triggers strong movement, especially if Draghi will offer hints about the next hike.


GBP/USD

After a brief dip below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, the bulls took control and finished the week more than 200 pips above the open. Most of the climb was generated by weak U.S. CPI and Retail Sales data.


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Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3050 was an important level and the breakout seen last week is likely to generate an extended move to the upside. The next resistance is located around 1.3250, followed by 1.3350 and the key level at 1.3450 but price will most likely retrace lower before the first resistance is reached. It’s also very possible to see a re-test of the recently broken resistance and if this re-test is successful (price bounces at 1.3050), then the level will turn into support and the chances of an extended climb will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected by only two important releases this week. The first is the British Consumer Price Index, which is scheduled Tuesday and the second is the Retail Sales, coming out Thursday. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and is closely watched by the Bank of England when they decide the interest rate; on the other hand, sales made at retail levels represent the majority of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for a large part of the entire economic activity, so we can expect to see strong movement when these indicators are released.
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