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  #901  
Old 05-07-2017, 11:01 PM
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FOREX NEWS: BOUNCE OR BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY, FOMC MINUTES EYED FOR NEXT MOVE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was very slow, partly because the United States celebrated Independence Day and this generated thin liquidity.


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Technical Outlook

Although it was a slow session, the pair reached the support at 1.1340 and came very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This means that today we are faced with a “bounce-or-break” scenario and its outcome will determine the next short term direction: a bounce will suggest a resumption of the bullish trend, while a break of this support zone will open the door for a move into 1.1280.

Fundamental Outlook

The FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released today at 6:00 pm GMT and will be the main event for the US Dollar. The document shows the details of the latest rate meeting and the reasons that generated the rate vote; usually the impact is very high if the Minutes contain hints about future monetary policy direction.


GBP/USD

Similar to the other pair, the Cable showed slow and choppy movement yesterday. The British Construction PMI came very close to analysts’ forecast, so the release didn’t create a lot of volatility.


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Technical Outlook

The short term bias remains bearish for the time being and we expect to see an encounter with 1.2900 support. By the time price gets there, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably climb and will form a confluence zone together with 1.2900. Confluence zones are tough to break but if price does move past them, this shows good momentum in the direction of the break, so maybe we will see an extended move into 1.2850. The overall bias is still bullish so we cannot rule out a quick move into 1.3000 area.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is the last in this week’s series and will be released at 8:30 am GMT, with an expected value of 53.6, similar to the previous 53.8. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the Services sector that acts as a leading indicator of economic health and optimism. Usually a higher number is beneficial for the Pound but if the actual reading matches the forecast, the impact is limited.
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  #902  
Old 06-07-2017, 09:16 PM
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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR REACTS POSITIVELY TO THE FOMC MINUTES. MORE DOWNSIDE TO FOLLOW?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened ahead of the FOMC Minutes release and the pair broke through support. The Minutes added greenback strength and the pair returned below 1.1340 after a brief climb.


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Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair is showing signs of indecision (candles with long wicks) and is trading very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so a clear bias is not in place. However, it seems the US Dollar is reacting positively to the FOMC Minutes and the pair is coming down after an extended period of being overbought, so we can expect a touch of 1.1280 as long as the bears can keep price below the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at the American jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that shows changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming sector and Government. The forecast is 184K, lower than the previous 253K and usually, numbers above expectations strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is lower than the Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday.


GBP/USD

The British Services PMI released yesterday came very close to analysts’ forecast, so the impact was low and the pair had a slow trading session until the release of the FOMC Minutes. Some US Dollar strength was seen but the pair is still above support.


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Technical Outlook

Several four hour candles have touched the support at 1.2900 and were rejected there, creating long wicks in their lower side. This is a sign of bullish pressure, so if we don’t see a break of support soon, we expect the pair to climb towards 1.2975 – 1.3000. If the level at 1.2900 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average are broken soon, we will probably see a touch of 1.2850. Our bias is mostly neutral until this bounce-or-break scenario unfolds.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases for today so the pair’s direction will be mostly decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. jobs data.
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  #903  
Old 07-07-2017, 10:53 PM
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FOREX NEWS: ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A WILD DAY: U.S. NFP RELEASE AND TRUMP – PUTIN FIRST MEETING


EUR/USD


Forex News: The bears ran out of steam before breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the pair made a run for 1.1400 resistance, generating a session controlled by the buyers. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed lower numbers than analysts had anticipated and this weakened the US Dollar, contributing to the pair’s climb.


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Technical Outlook

After showing long candle wicks (sign of rejection) at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair climbed into the first resistance located at 1.1400. A big part in the climb was played by the lower than expected reading showed by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change but technical reasons contributed as well. Today’s direction will be mainly decided by the Non-Farm Payrolls report and until its release, we expect to see choppy price action, near 1.1400.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:30 pm GMT the most important U.S. report of the week will be released: the Non-Farm Payrolls. The indicator is released monthly and shows changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector. This is widely considered the most important data for the U.S. jobs market, with a strong impact on the US Dollar; usually a higher than anticipated reading strengthens the currency. The forecast for today is 175K, higher than the previous 138K.

Today Presidents Trump and Putin will have their first official meeting at the G20 Summit and this definitely calls for caution because we don’t know how the market will react.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the US Dollar weakened when the U.S. employment numbers were released but the Pound’s gains were quickly erased and the pair dropped back to the levels where the climb originated, generating a choppy session overall.


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Technical Outlook

The pair is bouncing between the resistance at 1.2975 – 1.3000 and the support at 1.2900 but a break of either one will be decided by the fundamental side. The U.S. jobs data will have a direct and probably high impact on the pair’s movement and also the Trump – Putin meeting may be a reason for strong movement. Until these events occur, movement will likely be choppy and unclear.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak at the G20 Meetings today but the exact time is not known so we recommend caution throughout the day.
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  #904  
Old 10-07-2017, 09:12 PM
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FOREX NEWS: SOLID U.S. EMPLOYMENT READINGS BOOST THE US DOLLAR. SUPPORT THREATENED


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Non-Farm Payrolls showed a better than expected value Friday but the Average Hourly Earnings decreased, so the US Dollar had a mixed reaction, first weakening and then erasing all the losses. The pair finished last week close to support but without a clear bias.


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Technical Outlook

After a spike that took price close to 1.1450, the pair moved below 1.1400 and then reversed again, finishing last week very close to this support/resistance level. This type of movement shows that the pair is in an indecision phase and that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. For today we favour a move below 1.1400, but not a break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; we may also get a slow, ranging session sue to the lack of major releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release of the day is the Sentix Investor Confidence, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. This is a survey of about 2,800 analysts and investors that tries to rate their opinions regarding a 6-month outlook for the Eurozone. The forecast is 28.1 and a higher number shows optimism, strengthening the Euro but the impact is often low.


GBP/USD

Friday a weak Pound couldn’t do much against the US Dollar that was boosted by the solid NFP reading, so the pair bounced at 1.2975 and broke below horizontal support and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.


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Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action shows that the Pound is weak against the US Dollar and makes us anticipate a move into 1.2850. When or if the oscillators become oversold, we expect to see a climb that will find resistance around 1.2900 but overall we consider that today will be a slow and ranging session, mostly because no major indicators will be released.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is blank today, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect.
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  #905  
Old 11-07-2017, 10:49 PM
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR GAINS MOMENTUM, AMID A LACKLUSTRE FUNDAMENTAL SCENE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the bears took control of the pair and managed to take price below the support at 1.1400. However, price didn’t travel a long distance and the picture is still mixed.


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Technical Outlook

The pair is under bearish pressure and we consider the short term bias bearish, anticipating a move at least into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If this barrier is broken, then the next target will become 1.1340 but given the slow fundamental environment, it’s likely that this horizontal support will not be reached today. To the upside, resistance sits at 1.1450 but a move into this area is less likely for today.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 5.89 million. The report shows how many new jobs are available during the reported month, excluding the farming sector; a higher number is beneficial for the US Dollar but the impact is usually low.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar won the fight against the Pound yesterday and the pair dropped after a timid climb. The fundamental scene was lacklustre but Friday’s better than expected NFP probably extended its effects to yesterday’s trading session.


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Technical Outlook

After the dip below 1.2900 support, the pair climbed to re-test this level and bounced lower, thus confirming it as resistance. Price is also trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so the short term bias is bearish, anticipating a touch of 1.2850 in the very near future. The Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold and the Pound still has underlying strength, so we may very well see a bounce higher once the mentioned target is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic calendar today, without any notable releases, so the deciding factor for direction will probably be the technical aspect.
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  #906  
Old 12-07-2017, 10:52 PM
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FOREX NEWS: HEADS UP: FED CHAIR YELLEN TESTIFIES, US DOLLAR SET FOR STRONG MOVES


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action remained slow during yesterday’s trading session, with just a small move above 1.1400. The lacklustre economic calendar contributed to the low volatility.


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Technical Outlook

Even if volatility remained low for most of yesterday’s trading session, it is now becoming clearer that the US Dollar lacks the strength to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average or even 1.1400 decisively, at least for the time being. If the pair remains above 1.1400, we may see a touch of 1.1450 but the direction of the US Dollar may be heavily influenced by Janet Yellen’s testimony.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The topic is the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and the text of the testimony will be released 90 minutes prior but during the session, she will answer questions asked by the Committee members, and this is when volatility on US Dollar pairs will increase, so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The pair dipped lower after an initial climb above resistance, and headed into the support at 1.2850. Volatility was high yesterday and we are now seeing increased momentum to the downside.


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Technical Outlook

What looked like a clear break of the 50 period EMA and the resistance at 1.2900 turned to be a fake move, followed by a fast drop into the key support at 1.2850. If this level will be broken today, we will probably see a move into 1.2800 and possibly 1.2770 but a lot will depend on the British wages data and Yellen’s testimony. To the upside, the first barrier is represented by the confluence zone created by the 50 EMA and 1.2900 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Average Earnings Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid for labor by the Government and businesses. A higher hourly wage indicates that people may start to spend more in the near future, and this usually strengthens the Pound. Today’s forecast is a change of 1.8%, lower than the previous 2.1%.
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  #907  
Old 13-07-2017, 09:04 PM
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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR BOOSTED BY HAWKISH YELLEN TESTIMONY. SUPPORT THREATENED


EUR/USD


Forex News: Most of yesterday’s trading session was bearish but the Dollar really took off during Fed Chair Yellen’s hawkish speech. The pair reached horizontal support and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.


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Technical Outlook

The sellers are facing an important barrier at 1.1400 and the 50 period EMA. As long as this zone is not clearly broken, we can still consider the current move a retracement in an uptrend but if the barrier will be broken, we expect to see a drop into 1.1340. Given the US Dollar strength seen yesterday and the overextended condition of price on a Daily chart, we favour a drop through the current support.

Fundamental Outlook

First release of the day is the U.S. Producer Price Index, an indicator that shows changes in the price charged by producers for the goods they sell. A higher producer price leads to a higher consumer price, thus a higher inflation and this usually strengthens the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.0%, same as previous and the time of release is 12:30 pm GMT.

At 2:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will testify again on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, this time before the Senate Banking Committee. This testimony should be treated with caution because it can spark strong movement on USD pairs.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound was strengthened by better than expected employment data and the pair climbed above resistance, breaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Janet Yellen’s testimony erased some of the US Dollar losses but the effect wasn’t substantial.


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Technical Outlook

The level at 1.2815 has become support as seen from yesterday’s price action, but the buyers couldn’t break the confluence zone created by 1.2900 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The last 4 hour candle is showing a long wick in its upper part, suggesting rejection, and this increases the chances of a bounce lower, into 1.2850. On the other hand, the RSI is bouncing from its oversold level and this increases the chance of a continued move higher. Overall the picture is mixed and the way price behaves around the current resistance will decide the next move.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for the Pound, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect and by the U.S. events mentioned above.
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  #908  
Old 14-07-2017, 11:22 PM
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION DATA AND RETAIL SALES – TWO POTENTIAL MARKET MOVERS


EUR/USD


Forex News: The testimony of Fed Chair Yellen was shifter 30 minutes earlier yesterday but overall the event did not have a huge impact on the US Dollar. The pair dropped through the 50 period EMA but recovered soon after.


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Technical Outlook

After the first drop into 1.1400, price climbed into 1.1450 and then bounced lower from there, threatening support again. This “yo-yo” behaviour is likely to end today and we will probably see a break outside the range seen over the last few days. It seems like bearish pressure is increasing but there’s a huge wick in the lower side of the last closed candle and this suggests strong rejection, so probably the day’s direction will be decided by the fundamental side.

Fundamental Outlook

The focus will remain today on the US Dollar for the release of two key indicators: the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a main gauge of inflation and the Retail Sales, which represent the major part of overall consumer spending.

The CPI is expected to show a change of 0.1% (previous -0.1%) and the Retail Sales a change of 0.1% compared to the previous -0.3%. Both indicators come out at 12:30 pm GMT and higher than anticipated numbers for either of them are usually beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday belonged mostly to the bulls and price remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Janet Yellen’s testimony brought the pair slightly lower but nothing substantial.


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Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 EMA and the Relative Strength Index is not overbought, we expect the current move to extend into 1.2975 – 1.3000 area. If price gets there, by that time the RSI will probably become overbought and this will likely generate a bounce lower because price is not in a strong trend. If 1.2900 is broken to the downside, we will probably see a move closer to 1.2850.

Fundamental Outlook

Today direction will be mainly influenced by the United States economic indicators as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important releases for the last day of the week.
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  #909  
Old 17-07-2017, 08:54 PM
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ON THE ROPES AGAIN, WEAK ACROSS THE BOARD. WHAT’S NEXT?


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Dollar took a blow Friday from a weaker than expected Consumer Price Index (actual 0.0%, forecast 0.1%) and disappointing numbers for the Retail Sales (actual -0.2%, forecast 0.1%). These numbers were the main reason behind Friday’s climb and break of resistance.


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Technical Outlook

After the failed break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair headed straight for the resistance at 1.1450 and surpassed it, on the back of weak U.S. economic data. For today we expect an encounter with last week’s high located at 1.1490, but a strong move above 1.1500 is less likely, mostly because the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought and usually Mondays are slow days. As long as 1.1490 – 1.1500 remains resistance, we expect ranging movement.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day for both currencies from a fundamental standpoint, with the only notable release being the Eurozone Final CPI, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show a value of 1.3%, same as previous. The Final version is the least important, but higher numbers can bring Euro strength, taking the pair higher.


GBP/USD

The Pound bulls capitalized on the US Dollar weakness Friday and the pair climbed more than 150 pips, breaking several resistance levels. The outlook is now bullish but the pair has become overbought.


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Technical Outlook

Price stopped at 1.3100 resistance but it’s not clear whether this happened because the markets closed for the weekend or because the move is exhausted. Either way, the Relative Strength Index has moved well past the overbought mark and although the bias is bullish, we expect to see some sort of bounce lower from the current resistance. The extent of the movement should be limited because strong moves are usually followed by a short period of ranging price action.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the United States, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today so the technical side will prevail.
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  #910  
Old 18-07-2017, 10:40 PM
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FOREX NEWS: PULLBACKS EXPECTED, AHEAD OF BRITISH CONSUMER PRICE INDEX


EUR/USD


Forex News: Eurozone’s Final CPI that came out yesterday, matched the market consensus and the pair remained mostly unfazed by the release. Overall the session was mixed and the pair remained in a tight range.


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Technical Outlook

After a brief dip below 1.1450, the Euro rallied and nullified the early losses. Now the pair seems headed towards the resistance at 1.1490 – 1.1500 but once that zone is reached, we expect to see a bounce lower. If the zone is broken, the extent of the move above it should be limited, mostly because price is overextended and the bearish pressure has increased. To the downside, if 1.1450 is broken, we expect a touch of the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey comes out, showing the opinions of about 275 German professional analysts and investors regarding the health of the German economy, as well as a 6-month outlook. The anticipated number is 17.6 and higher values usually strengthen the Euro but the impact of this survey has started to decrease.


GBP/USD

The Pound wasn’t affected by important economic data yesterday and the pair retraced lower, mostly due to technical reasons that we mentioned in yesterday’s briefing.


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Technical Outlook

Bearish pressure has increased and we expect to see a move lower, possibly into the zone around 1.3030. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are turning down, coming out of overbought territory, which is a fact that supports a move lower. However, the pair still has strong upside momentum so after this potential pullback, the chances of a break of 1.3100 resistance will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

A high-impact indicator will affect the Pound today: the British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and is closely watched by the Bank of England when they decide on where to set the interest rate. Higher inflation eventually triggers a rate hike and this strengthens the Pound. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 2.9%.
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