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  #21  
Old 13-11-2015, 08:50 AM
painofhell painofhell is offline
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Overview:
Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the price of 1.6380. The trend is neutral. We can observe a 14-day major support cluster around the 1.6150-1.6210 area. So, be careful when selling EUR/NZD before a breakout of the key support level takes place. In the the daily time frame, we can see neutral bars, which are a sign of an indecision market. The pair has broken our downward channel but with a very weak price action. A high-volume breakout at the level of 1.6150 will confirm further downward movements. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.6500. According to the M15, I found a massive volume spike (selling climax), and later on buyers supported potential absorption. So, be careful when selling at this stage because we may see potential recovery of the euro. Watch for a potential change in polarity. Anyway, the strong support at 1.6150 may become a strong resistance once it gets broken.

Trading recommendations:
Selling looks risky at this stage so watch for potential buying opportunity on an intraday basis. Selling opportunities are preferable only if the price breaks the level of 1.6150.

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  #22  
Old 14-11-2015, 12:31 AM
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Wave summary:
The resistance line at 1.9114 was broken, but important resistance at 1.6545 still stays intact, and only a clear breakout above here will confirm that the bottom of wave 2 was seen at 1.6124 and wave 3 higher is developing. The risk continues to be observed, that the sideways consolidation calls for one final decline closer to 1.5882 before the decline from 1.9114 finally comes to the end.

Trading recommendation:
We are waiting for an opportunity to buy EUR 1.6365 or upon a break above 1.6545, with stop placed at 1.6280.

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  #23  
Old 18-11-2015, 09:31 AM
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Wave summary:
A sideways consolidation in the area of 1.6300 - 1.6545 continues endlessly. That said, we still feel that an upside resolution will be eventually seen for a clear break above 1.6545 confirming continuation for a rally higher to 1.8020 and ultimately above 1.9114.
Only a breakout below support at 1.6300 and more importantly a breakout below 1.6179 will call for a final decline to 1.5882 before the decline from 1.9114 is finally over and an expected rally higher can begin.

Trading recommendation:
We bought EUR at 1.6365 and have placed our stop at 1.6280. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6400 or upon a break above 1.6545 and use the same stop at 1.6280.

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  #24  
Old 19-11-2015, 10:07 PM
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Wave summary:
A sideways consolidation between 1.61.24 and 1.6545 is becoming a never-ending and depressing story. We still continue to watch for a clear breakout above resistance at 1.6545, but they need to move soon in the face of the risk to turn lower for one final decline closer to 1.5882 to end the decline from 1.9114.

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6360 with stop placed at 1.6280. Buy EUR closer to 1.6300 or upon a breakout above 1.6545 and use the same stop at 1.6280.

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  #25  
Old 21-11-2015, 12:20 AM
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Wave summary:
Resistance at 1.6545 was formidably proved, and a breakout below support at 1.6280 calls for one final decline closer to 1.5898 before the correction from 1.9114 finally comes to an end.
Short-term resistance is now seen at 1.6400, which will ideally protect the upside for a continuation lower towards 1.5898.

Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.6280 was hit for a small loss. We will sell EUR at 1.6385 with stop placed at 1.6525

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  #26  
Old 27-11-2015, 10:57 PM
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Wave summary:
No changes are observed in the chart.
A slow decline towards an ideal target at 1.5898 continues. We are looking for minor resistance at 1.6261 to protect the upside for a breakout below minor support at 1.6048 calling for the next leg lower towards an ideal target at 1.5898 before a more substantial bottom is in place and a large rally back to 1.8020 and above is expected.
Only a direct breakout above 1.6261 and more importantly a break above 1.6434 indicates that the bottom is already in place.

Trading recommendation:
We will but EUR at 1.5925 or upon the breakout above 1.6261.

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  #27  
Old 01-12-2015, 09:45 AM
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Wave summary:
We can say a lot about this cross. A downtrend from 1.9114 persists with an ideal target seen at 1.5898 before recovery through minor resistance at 1.6377 indicating the bottom is in place and a new impulsive rally towards 1.8020 and above has begun.
A breakout above 1.6460 will confirm the bottom and the rally to 1.8020, but for now the downtrend still dominates the picture and still calls for a test of 1.5898.

Trading recommendation:
We are still looking for a EUR buying opportunity at 1.5925 or upon a breakout above 1.6377 (one order done cancels the other).

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  #28  
Old 02-12-2015, 06:37 PM
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Wave summary:
With the downside target at 1.5898 fulfilled, we are looking for signs that a bottom is in place. The first minor indication, will be a breakout above 1.5980, while a breakout above resistance at 1.6243 is needed to confirm the bottom and that a strong rally back towards 1.8020 and higher is developing.
There is the risk of a clear breakout below 1.5898 which can result in the downside pressure towards 1.5688 and even lower to 1.5478.

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.5925 with stop placed at 1.5850. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5980 and use the same stop at 1.5850.

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  #29  
Old 04-12-2015, 02:50 PM
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Wave summary:
Ideally, we have seen a bottom at 1.5838 for a break above minor resistance at 1.6009 and more importantly a breakout above resistance at 1.6243 confirming that a bottom for the correction from 1.9114 is in place and a new impulsive rally to 1.8020 and above can develop.
We have to acknowledge the risk is more downside pressure towards 1.5688 and possibly even 1.5479 if minor resistance at 1.6009 is able to protect the upside.

Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.5850 was taken out. We will only buy on a break above 1.6009 and place our stop just below the lowest price seen.

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  #30  
Old 09-12-2015, 12:48 PM
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Overview:
Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6378 in a high volume. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe strong rejection from Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.6070. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential profit targets. First profit target is seen at the level of 1.6480 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%) and second is at 1.6745 (Fibonacci expansion 100%.) Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips. The short-term trend has changed from downward to upward.

Trading recommendations :
Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips

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